UEFA Champions League Picks Today: UCL Predictions for October 21

I’m not quite sure why the odds for the under 2.5 goals are so high here. It’s probably because Atletico Madrid had multiple high-scoring games this season, including the 5-2 and 5-1 demolition jobs against Real Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt, respectively, and the wild 3-2 defeat against Liverpool.

These games did produce many goals and chances, but the next one will be completely different. Atletico Madrid will face the best defensive team in whole of Europe right now, away from home at that.

Arsenal have only conceded 3 goals across 11 games in all competition since the start of the season.

Arsenal’s defense so far this season pic.twitter.com/3sgkcdh3Gb

— Leo Dasilva (@SirLeoBDasilva) October 19, 2025

The entire team defends with purpose and passion, but that’s not the only reason they concede very little goals. Arsenal is built around control, so suffocating the opposition by keeping the ball away from their own goal has been critical.

If Atletico Madrid want to take something from this game, they must try a low-block and counters. It’s the only viable strategy, so it’s hard to expect anything different. Sure, the Spanish side might press high in selected spots, but the overall approach to the game is likely going to be very conservative.

I don’t expect many chances or goals in this one, so the -108 available for the under 2.5 is one of the best Champions League bets today.

We knew that Erling Haaland is one of the most lethal strikers in soccer history before the start of this season, but his achievements this year are still impressive. The Man City striker has scored 11 goals in 8 Premier League game and another 3 in only 2 Champions League fixtures so far this season.

He also has like 150 goals in 6 games for Norway in the World Cup qualifiers (don’t quote me on that, but it feels right). The guy simply can’t stop scoring! Furthermore, he’s often the one to open the scoring in Man City games.

Haaland scored the first goal in the team’s last three fixtures, so I won’t be shocked if he does the same against Villareal tonight. The Spanish side hasn’t kept a clean sheet since August 24, which doesn’t bode well when you’re about to face the most lethal striker in the world.

The conservative play here would be to back Haaland to score anytime at -138, but I prefer going for the higher payout. The +300 available for the Norwegian to open the scoring is way too big to ignore and one of my top UCL predictions today.