The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting odds for the 2024 edition are missing a major name! Joey Chestnut, the 16-time winner of the Mustard Yellow Belt, will not be taking part this year, due to a business dispute with Nathan’s. Instead, Chestnut will be eating hot dogs with US soldiers on July 4.
Therefore, the title is up for grabs this year on the Fourth of July in Coney Island, New York. The online betting sites covering the event have another favorite, but let’s talk about the format first.
The rules are simple for this contest:
- Consume as many hot dogs, and buns, as you can in a 10-minute period.
- Condiments are allowed, but contestants usually go without.
- You can also have drinks on hand, but many contestants have water, which they use to make it easier to consume the buns.
- You also have to keep it all down for your score to be official.
Contestants can also receive a yellow card for “messy eating”, and a red card for not being able to keep the hot dogs down. In the event of a tie, the contestants will try to eat five hot dogs as quickly as they can, and again, they must be able to keep the hot dogs (and buns) down.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2024 Winner Odds
All Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds courtesy of Bovada.
| PARTICIPANT | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Geoffrey Esper | -200 |
| James Webb | +220 |
| Nick Wehry | +400 |
| Darron Breedon | +800 |
| Matt Stonie | +1100 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +2000 |
| Gideo Oji | +2500 |
| Bertley Weaver IV | +2500 |
| Pablo Martinez | +3500 |
Geoffrey Esper (-200) is the favorite in the betting odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. He has an implied probability of 66.7% to win in 2024. James Webb (+200) is next, coming in with a 31.2% implied probability of holding the Yellow Mustard Belt. Nick Wehry (+400) isn’t far behind, with a 20% implied chance to win.
It should be noted that this year’s field includes Matt Stonie (+1100), who won in 2015. He is the only man to beat Chestnut since 2006. However, with an 8.3% implied probability of winning, I wouldn’t put too much stock in Stonie.
You can bet on all of these lines at Bovada! To find these betting odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, go to Bovada and click Sports > All Sports > Entertainment > Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. It’s that simple!
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2024 Favorites
In the absence of Chestnut, the following contestants are expected to challenge for the win:
Geoffrey Esper (-200)
Geoffrey Esper is a 49-year-old, hailing from Oxford, Massachusetts. He has a slew of Major League Eating records, including 83 slices of pizza in 10 minutes in April 2018. Esper also set a record with 281 Hooters’ chicken wings in September 2019.
New world Record! Hooters 2019 Championship https://t.co/z7bWv5sLTc via @YouTube Watch a bunch of awesome MLE eaters eat Hooters wings. Crazy fun time.
— Geoffrey Esper (@GeoffEsper) June 29, 2019
Esper also finished second to Chestnut in 2023 with 49 hot dogs. 2023 was the third straight year that he was a runner-up to Chestnut, with a high of 50 hot dogs in 2021.
Esper is the prohibitive favorite without Chestnut after these performances, and he’s probably happier than anyone that Chestnut isn’t participating this year. Having a Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest win on your resume is massive in the competitive-eating world.
James Webb (+220)
James Webb, 35, is from Sydney, Australia. He is the first Australian to compete in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Sydney’s James Webb on debut at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, the first ever Aussie to compete,
has finished 3rd knocking off 41 dogs in the 10 minutes. A podium finish on debut on the biggest stage
#NathansHotDogEatingContest pic.twitter.com/8rLsE4CNTh— Liam Flanagan (@ljflannas) July 4, 2022
He consumed 41 hot dogs in 2022, to finish third behind Chestnut and Esper. Webb followed up in 2023 with another third-place finish, but he ate 47 hot dogs this time. As a relative newcomer to competitive eating in the United States, the Aussie has definitely proved that he belongs in this space.
Nick Wehry (+400)
Nick Wehry, 34, is from Tampa, Florida. He is also a bodybuilder who finished 10th way back in 2018, eating 31 hot dogs without training. He improved to third with 44 hot dogs in 2021, fourth in 2022 with 40.5 hot dogs, and fourth in 2023 with 45 hot dogs.
Miki Sudo is a seven-time Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Champion.
Nick Wehry is the fourth-ranked competitive eater in the world.
Meet the married couple who continue to break competitive eating records. pic.twitter.com/zuYS0ny8qp
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) July 4, 2022
Wehry is also married to hot-dog eating royalty. His wife is Miki Sudo, who has won nine Yellow Mustard Belts on the women’s side. She didn’t participate in 2021 as Sudo was pregnant with the couple’s first child, but returned to reclaim her title in 2022, and again in 2023. Sudo has certainly helped Wehry along in his competitive-eating journey.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Prediction and Pick
It’s undoubtedly a more open competition than before without Chestnut. In the past, if you were betting on Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds, you can get lines for props without Chestnut.
But with no Chestnut, Esper is the bet to make. He is the only eater of the three to reach the 50 hot-dog mark, which is about where you need to get to, to win. Webb has been impressive in his short time in the United States, but I’m taking the chalk and sticking with Esper at Bovada.
More Betting Odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
There are a couple of interesting props at BetOnline that you should consider in the hunt for the Hot Dog Eating Contest best bets for 2024.
Winner of Hot Dogs Eaten (Without Chestnut)
- Over 49.5 Hot Dogs (-110)
- Under 49.5 Hot Dogs (-130)
As I noted, I think the number of hot dogs required for a victory will be around 50. Again, Esper is the only one to get to 50 hot dogs in this contest. While the under is favored, I’m going to take the OVER 49.5 odds at -110 since we have at least one guy who’s capable of reaching the target.
I think these eaters will want to push themselves because they have a real chance at the title with Chestnut out.
Paige Spiranac Number of Hot Dogs Eaten
- Over 7 Hot Dogs (-120)
- Under 7 Hot Dogs (-120)
Golf influencer Paige Spiranac has thrown her name into the ring to replace Chestnut in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. With over one million followers on X, and over four million on Instagram, Nathan’s might take her up on her offer. They’ll need to bring in more eyes and attention with Chestnut out.
Spiranac tweeted that she had eaten six hot dogs in 10 minutes, and BetOnline has set the total at seven. Obviously, that isn’t enough to win. However, Nathan’s could go for the attention and give her a spot. I’m going with the over since I expect the influencer to prepare if she does join the race!
Where to Bet on Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
In closing, I’m sticking with the favorite in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds, Geoffrey Esper, to take the Yellow Mustard Belt home. With my other Hot Dog Eating contest betting picks, I’m taking the winner to eat over 49.5 hot dogs, and if she participates, Paige Spiranac to eat over seven hot dogs.
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