2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Prop Bets

Nathans Hotdog Eating Contest Odds And Props

The nation’s favorite Independence Day sporting event returns for another year at the corner of Surf Avenue and Stillwell Avenue on Coney Island. Yes, we are talking about the one and only Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

We are checking out the latest Hot Dog Eating contest odds and best bets for July 4th. The best online betting sites are covering a plethora of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds this year. It might sound crazy to bet on a hot dog eating contest, but there are soft lines to exploit.

Joey Chestnut is returning to Coney Island to defend his Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest title. The undisputed GOAT of competitive eating has been a 4th of July staple for over a decade. It wouldn’t be Independence Day without Chestnut scoffing down an incredibly unhealthy number of hot dogs.

Chestnut is on a seven-year winning streak and a 15-time winner going into this year’s contest. The 39-year-old champ has won 15 of the previous 16 events. Matt Stonie upset Chestnut in 2015, but Chestnut returned to the top of the competitive eating world a year later and has stayed there.

In 2011, the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest introduced a women’s division. Miki Sudo has established herself as the Chestnut of women’s competitive eating. Since 2014, Sudo has captured eight of nine Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest titles1.

We are dissecting all of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating odds at the top entertainment betting sites. In addition to picking the winning eaters, BetUS has over ten Hot Dog Eating Contest prop bets that we are handicapping for the big day.

2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

The following odds and prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Will World Women’s Record Be Broken At Nathan’s 2023?

BETODDS
Yes+200
No-300

Miki Sudo, the betting favorite to win the women’s side, owns the record for most hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes by a woman.

She devoured 48.5 hot dogs to break the record in 2020. Sudo is coming off a 42-hot dog effort last year. This was only the third time in nine attempts that Sudo eclipsed 40 hot dogs.

After she broke the record, Sudo regressed significantly the following year. In 2021, Sudo was off her game with 30.75 hot dogs eaten.

However, she bounced back with a strong showing last year. Sudo was still well off the pace to break her 48.5 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest record.

Breaking a new milestone is unlikely to happen in 2023. She can probably get over 40 hot dogs again, but pushing close to 50 hot dogs seems like a lot for the 38-year-old from New York.

We do not see a new women’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest record in 2023.

The Bet
NO

Miki Sudo Total Hot Dogs At Nathan’s 2023

HOT DOGSODDS
Over 43.5-110
Under 43.5-130

The over/under for Sudo at the 2023 event is set at 43.5 hot dogs. She will have to smash this mark to get the record. However, will she eat more than 43 hot dogs?

It is likely going to come down to the final seconds. This is going to be one of those bets where you might need to hold your breath regardless of what side you are on.

Sudo consumed a total of 42 hot dogs and buns last year. She should be in the 40-42 range at the 2023 event. That is enough for a solid performance, but 44 hot dogs will be out of her range.

The Bet
UNDER 43.5

Nathan’s 2023 Head-to-Head Matchup: Nick Wehry vs. Miki Sudo

EATERODDS
Nick Wehry-130
Miki Sudo-110

Currently, Nick Wehry is the No. 4 competitive eater in the world. He is well-known on the competitive eating circuit, but is not in the same league as Chestnut.

Wehry has the fourth-best odds to win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest at +1400. Last year, Wehry finished fourth after eating 40 hot dogs2.

This was a disappointment for Wehry after he finished on the podium in third. Wehry ate 44 hot dogs in the 2021 contest. The conditions were perfect for high scores that year, as Chestnut broke a world record with 76 dogs consumed3.

This prop bet is entertaining as it pits the husband and wife duo of Sudo and Wehry against each other. Not only are they considered the “first couple of competitive eating”, but they also have a child together. I would say that the odds favor their child becoming the next Joey Chestnut.

BetUS got this one right, as Sudo and Wehry have had similar results in recent years. After a down year from 44 to 40 hot dogs, expect Wehry to return in better form this year.

In a close one, look for Wehry to edge Sudo out by a couple of dogs. But, the win could put Wehry in the proverbial dog house.

The Bet
NICK WEHRY

Will World Men’s Record Be Broken At Nathan’s 2023?

BETODDS
Yes+185
No-280

Chestnut can’t be happy with his performance last year. After breaking the world record in 2022, Chestnut did not come close to doing the same in the following competition.

He finished with 63 hot dogs eaten, which was a drop off of 13 hot dogs year over year. This snapped a six-year streak of Chestnut consuming 70 or more hot dogs in the contest.

2020 and 2021 were the best years for Chestnut. After breaking his then-record of 74 hot dogs with 75 in 2020, Chestnut came back to eat one more for the new world record of 76.

Currently, Chestnut has an Over/Under to eat 73.5 hot dogs. If we base Chestnut’s output on his Over/Under, he will not break a new world record in 2023.

That said, Chestnut should be plenty motivated to forget about his effort from last year. It was uncharacteristic of Chestnut to only down 63 hot dogs, but he was on crutches and one leg.

Despite the improved form, it’s unlikely that we will see Chestnut eat 77 hot dogs this year.

The Bet
NO

Joey Chestnut Total Hot Dogs At Nathan’s 2023

HOT DOGSODDS
Over 73.5-110
Under 73.5-130

Chestnut is going to press it this year. After eating less than 70 hot dogs for the first time since losing to Matt Stonie in 2015, Chestnut is going to be motivated to eat up to expectations this year.

It does not mean that Chestnut is going to break a new record with 77 hot dogs. However, he might test this mark before running out of steam down the stretch.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Chestnut finish with roughly 75 hot dogs eaten. While breaking his own record seems unlikely, this should be one of Chestnut’s best years at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Let’s bet on Chestnut to get to 74 or 75 hot dogs. This puts him beyond 73.5 hot dogs, but just short of breaking a record.

The Bet
OVER 73.5

James Webb To Eat 50+ Hot Dogs

BETODDS
Yes+125
NoOFF

James Webb is a relative newcomer to the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. He is coming off his first appearance in the event and held up well against the competition.

Webb ate 41.5 hot dogs in his first Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. That was enough to put him on the podium in third. The future looks bright for Webb, who is coming off the best performance of his career at the Salvation Army National Donut Day.

On June 3, Webb broke a record with 59.5 glazed donuts eaten in eight minutes. He has continued to show strong form and discipline since last year.

One of the biggest movers from 2022 to 2023 could be Webb. While catching Chestnut is impossible, expect Webb to challenge Geoffrey Esper and Wehry for the runner-up spot.

An Over/Under of 49.5 looks reasonable for Webb. Expect him to eclipse this mark and push for 60 hot dogs. At plus money, Webb eating more than 50 hot dogs is good Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds.

The Bet
YES

James Webb Top 3 Finish

BETODDS
Yes-150
NoOFF

And, on that note, are we confident that Webb will have a Top 3 finish at the 2023 Nathan’s event? If you just read the analysis for our previous prop bet, then you already know what we think.

The 34-year-old Aussie is trending up and has a good chance of showing improvement from last year’s event. If he doesn’t finish in the Top 3, it would be a major blow to him.

That said, after his world record-breaking performance at the Salvation Army National Donut Day, Webb is going into Coney Island with a mountain of confidence.

Webb isn’t taking the Mustard Belt from Chestnut’s shoulder, but he is going to get respect on the 4th of July. If Webb isn’t third, he could very well finish second behind Chestnut.

The Bet
James Webb (YES)

Geoffrey Esper Total Hot Dogs At Nathan’s 2023

HOT DOGSODDS
Over 50.5-115
Under 50.5-125

Geoffrey Esper, a Massachusetts teacher, returns to the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest looking for the best result of his competitive eating career. He set a career-high with 50 hot dogs eaten in 2021.

This was the same year that Chestnut set the all-time Hot Dog Eating Contest record, so it was a big year for everyone. In 2022, Esper was in decent form with 47.5 hot dogs consumed4.

At the 2019 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, Esper was in the same range with 47 hot dogs eaten. Esper’s averaged in the high 40s over the last five years5.

This year does not look like a personal best for Esper. He should be amongst the Top 5 performers, but 51 hot dogs will be difficult.

The Bet
UNDER 50.5

To Win Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023 Without Joey Chestnut

EATERODDSEATERODDS
Geoffrey Esper-225James Webb+200
Nick Wehry+300Darron Breedon+700
Matt Stonie+900Patrick Bertoletti+1500
Gideon Oji+2000Pablo Martinez+3000
Bertley Weaver IV+4000  

In other words, who is going to finish runner-up to Chestnut at the 2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest? If Chestnut has to withdraw from the event, this will be the new Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest odds.

After handicapping all of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest prop bets, we are pointing to Webb. Esper is the most logical pick at -225 odds, but there isn’t much value on that bet.

Webb has quietly been asserting himself as a contender over the past few months. The world-record holder for glazed donuts is in the best competitive eating shape of his career only days before the prestigious hot dog eating event.

Esper will put up a big fight, but the value is with Webb for second place in 2023. There isn’t much value in Chestnut winning this eating contest. However, Webb is a live underdog at +200 odds.

The Bet
JAMES WEBB

2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Predictions

Here are our men’s and women’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions and picks for the Super Bowl of competitive eating.

Men’s Nathan Hot Dog Eating Contest Pick

EATERODDSEATERODDS
Joey Chestnut-2500Geoffrey Esper+800
James Webb+1000Nick Wehry+1400
Matt Stonie+1600Darron Breedon+2000
Patrick Bartoletti+2500Gideon Oji+3000

Chestnut is not just a hot dog eating monster. In addition to his record for eating 76 hot dogs in 10 minutes, he owns a total of 55 eating contest records during his illustrious career.

Some of these records include the most tacos, meat pies, pulled pork sandwiches, chicken wings, gyros, twinkies, and many more on his resume6.

Chestnut will go down in history as one of the most accomplished athletes of our time. Despite eating on one leg in 2022, Chestnut was still able to win with 63 hot dogs eaten.

Even if he is below average again this year, the title should remain safe with Chestnut for an eighth straight year. Chestnut will capture his 16th championship with a win at the 2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Chestnut is going to have a tough time breaking his current record, but he will make it interesting in the final minute. Look for “Jaws” to pull away and claim his 16th Mustard Belt.

The Bet
JOEY CHESTNUT

Women’s Nathan Hot Dog Eating Contest Pick

EATERODDSEATERODDS
Miki Sudo-5000Michelle Lesco+900
Sarah Rodriguez+1600Larell Marie Mele+2500
Katie Prettyman+4000Sophia DeVita+4500

Sudo is etching out quite the career for herself in the world of competitive eating. She doesn’t get nearly as much attention as Chestnut, but is on a similar path in the women’s division.

Sudo is the No. 1 ranked female competitive eater in the world. On July 4, 2020, Sudo broke Sonya Thomas’ record for the most hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes. She put down 48.5 hot dogs to beat Thomas’ 45 dogs.

Michelle Lesco has an outside chance of slaying Sudo at the 2023 event. She won in 2021 after Sudo had won the Nathan’s title for seven straight years. However, similar to what happened after Chestnut was upset in 2015, expect Sudo to go on a long run as champion.

Currently, the 37-year-old holds five competitive eating records. The most recent addition to her resume was the record for most corn dogs eaten in eight minutes.

Sudo’s latest accomplishment was a win at the 2023 Sweet Corn Eating Championship with 52 ears of corn downed in 12 minutes7. She is in top form and likely can’t be stopped on July 4th.

The Bet
MIKI SUDO

BetUS 5 Dog Challenge 

EaterOdds
Flash “The Hot Dog Hero”+180
Bruno “The Eatalian Maestro”             +220
Adrian “The Chew Champion”            +300
Mike “Black Dynamite”            +400
Danny “The Dawg Pounder”               +450

In the spirit of competitive eating, BetUS has created a contest (5 Dog Challenge) where five of their employees will race to see who can eat five hotdogs the fastest.

Since everyone outside of BetUS is unfamiliar with these personalities, the online betting site has a page where you can learn more about each contestant by watching brief videos.

There’s an extra bonus to wagering on the 5 Dog Challenge. If you do the following steps, you will become eligible to win a PS5:

  • Post your betting slip on Twitter
  • Use the hashtag #5DogChallenge
  • Tag @BetUS_Official

After watching these videos, and taking into consideration BetUS’s handicapping of these contestants, the smart bet is on Flash “The Dog Hero” at +180 odds. Clearly, BetUS knows the eating talents of their employees. So, it’s safe to say that they’ve accurately handicapped this event.

The Bet
Flash "The Hot Dog Hero"

Sources

  1. All-Time List of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winners | The Last Sandwich. Retrieved From “https://www.lastsandwich.com/articles/sandwich-sports/all-time-list-of-nathan-s-hot-dog-eating-champions

  2. Full results From The 2022 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest | Major League Eating. Retrieved From “https://majorleagueeating.com/articles/1033

  3. Nathan’s Famous 2021 July Fourth Hot Dog Eating Contest | Major League Eating. Retrieved From “https://majorleagueeating.com/contests/914

  4. Geoffrey Esper, of Massachusetts, comes in 2nd place at Nathan’s hot dog eating contest | Boston Herald. Retrieved From “https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/07/04/geoffrey-esper-of-massachusetts-comes-in-2nd-place-at-nathans-hot-dog-eating-contest-devours-47-5-hot-dogs-and-buns/

  5. Results From The 2019 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest | Major League Eating. Retrieved From “https://majorleagueeating.com/articles/1016

  6. Joey Chestnut | Major League Eating. Retrieved From “https://majorleagueeating.com/eaters/106

  7. Miki Sudo | Major League Eating. Retrieved From “https://majorleagueeating.com/eaters/222

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Kyle Eve

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Kyle is a seasoned pro of TheSportsGeek. Since the native of Windsor, Ontario, Canada, joined the team in 2011, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible.

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