As the Fourth of July holiday nears, online bookies have released their 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds! The return of Joey Chestnut has competitive eating fans buzzing with excitement, but can he take back the Mustard Belt?
I explore the latest winner prices, prop bets, and make my Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2025 Odds and Predictions
Betting odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest are courtesy of Bovada:
| MARKET | BETTING FAVORITE/ODDS | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | Joey Chestnut (-2500) | Joey Chestnut (-2500) |
| Winner Total Hot Dogs | Over 71.5 (-115) Under 71.5 (-125) | Over 71.5 (-115) |
| Winner Without Joey Chestnut | Patrick Bartoletti (+140) | Patrick Bartoletti (+140) |
Joey Chestnut (-2500) is a massive betting favorite to win the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. At -2500, Chestnut has a 96.2% implied probability to win the Mustard Belt in his return to Coney Island after being suspended from the event last year.
For as convincing as a 96.2% chance is to win, it might appear too low considering his long-standing dominance! The over under suggests that the winner, likely Chestnut, is expected to scoff down roughly 71 hot dogs. The under is slightly favored at 71.5 (-125), with a 55.6% chance of cashing.
If you don’t want to bet on Chestnut’s monster odds at entertainment betting sites, then there is a chance to get better value on the bet without Chestnut.
Current Mustard Belt holder, Patrick Bartoletti, is favored to top the field without Chestnut at +140, or a 41.7% implied chance.
You can find up-to-date Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting odds at Bovada by navigating to All Sports > Entertainment > Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Format and Key Info
The Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest has been held annually since July 4, 1972. The Fourth of July contest will fall on a Friday at the original Nathan’s Famous restaurant in Coney Island, Brooklyn, NY.
29 competitive eaters stepped up to the table and competed for the Mustard Belt in 2023 and 2024. Chestnut’s absence left a huge void in the contest a year ago. He is a 16-time winner of the event, by far the most in Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest history.
Chestnut and the rest of the competitors will be asked to consume as many hot dogs as possible over a 10-minute span. Note that the bun must be swallowed for the point to count.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winner Prediction and Pick
CONTESTANT ODDS Joey Chestnut -2500 Patrick Bartoletti +950 Geoffrey Esper +1200 Nick Wehry +2000 James Webb +2500 Derek Hendrickson +5000
With Chestnut an overwhelming favorite to win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, he is in the driver’s seat to capture his 17th title! Last year, Chestnut was banned from competing due to a conflict with one of his sponsors and Nathan’s Famous.
Joey Chestnut will return for the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4 in Coney Island, he announced on social media.
The 16x champ is back 😤 pic.twitter.com/0qxaRMJ6fb
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) June 16, 2025
Since winning in 2007, Chestnut has won 16 of the 17 events he’s entered. In 2015, Chestnut was upset in a stunner by Matt Stonie. Chestnut consumed “just” 60 hot dogs to Stonie’s 62. However, the legendary champoon has been on a warpath since then.
He’s won eight contests on the Fourth of July after the shocking defeat to Stonie. In 2021, Chestnut set a world record with 76 hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes. It was one better than the 75 that he downed a year earlier in 2020. Despite being banned last year, Chestnut and competitive eating legend Takeru Kobayashi went head-to-head in Las Vegas.
A motivated Chestnut torched Kobayashi with 83 hot dogs! He nearly surpassed the winner of the 2024 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest winner in half the time. No one will stop Chestnut if he comes prepared and motivated. And, after being prevented from competing in 2024, you can bet that he’ll fire out of the gates hard.
Chestnut should probably have -5000 odds here, but still, at -2500, there is no point in backing him. In my eyes, he’s the only option, but I’d pass on this price for your Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest picks.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winner Over/Under Prediction and Pick
- Over 71.5 (-115)
- Under 71.5 (-125)
Instead of betting on Chestnut’s winner odds, I recommend considering the over/under. Like I said, Chestnut is going to come into Coney Island focused and ready to roll.
After being banned from last year’s event, it’s highly likely that Chestnut shows up and attempts to blow the doors off the competition. He was unstoppable versus Kobayashi in Las Vegas.
Joey Chestnut beats Takeru Kobayashi AND his own World Record with 83 hot dogs in 10 minutes. #ChestnutVSKobayashi pic.twitter.com/ThF9GSkWQF
— Netflix (@netflix) September 2, 2024
Joey “Jaws” put back a staggering 83 hot dogs to surpass the 76 he scoffed down. The last time we saw Chestnut at the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, he won after eating 62 hot dogs. That was well below his pace and expectations.
Once Chestnut got out to a comfortable lead, he laid off the gas pedal and cruised. I don’t expect that to be the case here. Chestnut is going for the kill and all the glory. Breaking the world record is likely out of reach, but he should eclipse 72 hot dogs!
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winner Without Joey Chestnut Prediction and Pick
CONTESTANT ODDS Patrick Bartoletti +140 Geoffrey Esper +160 James Webb +225 Nick Wehry +1600 Derek Hendrickson +2500
All of Chestnut’s foes will be fighting for the runner-up position on July 4th. With Chestnut in the competition, second is a pretty good accomplishment! In any event, the 41-year-old Vallejo, CA, native doesn’t have any threat ahead of him in Coney Island.
Bartoletti took advantage of Chestnut’s absence to win his first Mustard Belt in 2024. He downed 58 hot dogs for what was a fairly impressive performance! It wouldn’t have held up against Chestnut, but inhaling 58 hot dogs is no slouch.
58 GLIZZYS 😱
PATRICK BERTOLETTI WINS THE MEN'S NATHAN'S FAMOUS HOT DOG CONTEST 👏 pic.twitter.com/1CKtp4Xmxd
— ESPN (@espn) July 4, 2024
Note that Bartoletti was in the clear over Geoffrey Esper, who finished with 53 hot dogs eaten. He’s back in 2024 to defend his title, but Bartoletti is merely handing the belt over to Chestnut. Nevertheless, the value on him at +140 is a strong wager to win this bet.
In short, I recommend adding Bartoletti for your 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions and picks!
Where to Bet on the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
Wagering on Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds is one of the wildest bets online! However, the annual tradition in Coney Island provides bettors with a solid opportunity to cash in on a fun event and make a few bucks.
If you’re wondering where to bet on 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest prop bets, Bovada is the place to go. It’s among the best betting sites out there, covering everything from the popular Hot Dog Eating Contest to movies and music, and world events.
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