Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds and Betting Prediction: Will Journalism Win?

Journalism (+350)

Per the latest futures markets at Kentucky Derby betting sites, the field is led by Journalism. The three-year-old piloted by Umberto Rispoli has the shortest odds after sprinting to the wire to win the San Anita Derby (Gr. 1) on April 5.

Journalism is on a four-race win streak and seemingly in the best form entering the first Saturday of May. The young colt edged out Baeza by ¾ lengths at the wire to claim the $500,000 race. My only concern with the win is that Journalism defeated a rather mediocre field.

"Write this down. Journalism is the best in the west as he wins the Santa Anita Derby!" pic.twitter.com/1S7Q5r1Dyi

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) April 6, 2025

He was a heavy favorite in the race, with Citizen Bull and Barnes the other favorites in the race. Citizen Bull is a fine runner, but Journalism might need more to win the Kentucky Derby. Baeza, who is +2000 to win the Derby, ended up being his only threat in the stretch.

In any event, Journalism has won three graded races and four of five overall, including victories in the Los Alamitos Futurity (Gr. 2) and San Felipe Stakes (Gr. 2). Additionally, McCarthy’s colt has registered a speed figure of 105 or higher in four consecutive starts! He was clocked at 105 in the Santa Anita Stakes, which would be enough to contend at Churchill Downs.

Nevertheless, there is stronger value for your 2025 Kentucky Derby picks!

Sovereignty (+600)

You can’t look at the Kentucky Derby 2025 odds without taking Sovereignty into consideration! Despite placing 2nd in the Florida Derby (Gr. 1), Sovereignty could do one better on May 3.

He finished 1 ¼ lengths behind Tappan Street at the wire in the Grade 1 $1,000,000 event in late March. The best sign for Sovereignty was his strong kick in the stretch.

He was 5th at the ¾ pole and showed more in the later stages of the race. Another furlong, and the William Mott trainee would have gotten the win!

"If you're looking for a shortcut to Louisville, take a ride on Tappan Street!"

Tappan Street (2-1) is your winner at the 74th running of the Florida Derby. 🍊

📺 CNBC & Peacock pic.twitter.com/A4xPUoQPE1

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) March 29, 2025

Sovereignty had more to give after the wire, and in a 1 ¼ mile race, expect him to be involved in the stretch run. The key here for Sovereignty will be his draw, and if he can find the right trip. Traffic is always a problem in the Kentucky Derby, so if Sovereignty can’t find room, his late kick may not help.

Note that Sovereignty hasn’t shown pure speed in his five assignments yet. He’s won two of five starts and hasn’t eclipsed a 100-speed figure. Sovereignty’s highest speed reading was 99 in a win in the Street Sense Stakes (Gr. 2) on October 27, 2024. He followed up with a win by a neck in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. 2).

Sovereignty can absolutely win, but he’ll need the perfect conditions to get there at the wire. He will need to fight through traffic to get home, so if an opening is there, Sovereignty can win the 151st Kentucky Derby!

Luxor Cafe (+1000)

Last year, Japan sent a contender in Forever Young to Louisville to run at Churchill Downs. Forever Young put in solid work against a tough field, but came up just short to show 3rd. Luxor Cafe may be just as good or a better horse than Forever Young, so it could get interesting!

Owned by Koichi Nishikawa, Luxor Cafe enters the Kentucky Derby in top form. He has won four consecutive races, most recently at Nakayama in the Fukuryu Stakes. Since debuting in August 2024, Luxor Cafe has finished 4th, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, and hasn’t lost a race this year.

Also, note that two of his wins were against the UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona! Beating such a tough contender twice is no easy chore.

Luxor Cafe delivered a dominant victory in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama, securing his spot in the Kentucky Derby! 🏇🏾🌹 An outstanding performance from the son of AMERICAN PHAROAH. Congratulations to his connections! #homeofchampions #coolmoresires

pic.twitter.com/ayldfNFnzp

— Coolmore America (@coolmoreamerica) March 29, 2025

The primary concern with Luxor Cafe is that he hasn’t faced elite competition in the US. That being said, the horse was sired by American Pharoah, so he comes with an incredible pedigree.

American Pharoah won the Triple Crown in 2015 and is regarded as one of the best thoroughbreds of all time.

Heading into May with a plethora of confidence and in the best form of his career. Is the long trip from Japan to Louisville going to bother him? If so, he hasn’t shown it since arriving. In any event, don’t overlook Luxor Cafe — there is obvious value to consider on his Kentucky Derby odds at +1000!

Sandman (+1000)

Another 2025 Kentucky Derby winner pick holding strong value is Sandman. If you want a horse that has improved consistently and close to his peak right now, you must look at Sandman’s chances.

The Mark Casse trainee didn’t get off to the best start in his career. He finished 5th, 1st, 5th, and 3rd in his first four races. It’s also worth mentioning that Sandman didn’t hit a 100-speed figure in any of those events, but things quickly turned around.

Over his previous four events, Sandman was clocked at 97, 100, 101, and then 104 most recently!

Sandman (7/2) turns it on down the stretch to take the victory in the Arkansas Derby! 💨 pic.twitter.com/odK78GVIyQ

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) March 30, 2025

The son of Tapit, Sandman, was at his best in his toughest race to date. He was in impressive form in the Arkansas Derby (Gr. 1) for a 2 ½ length win over Publisher. He closed well to kick and clear late in the stretch. Tapit loved longer distances, and that is evident in Sandman.

My hesitation with Sandman is that he is a little bit of a headcase. He has a lot of energy, again, similar to Tapit, and there is a chance he wakes up on Derby Day and gets distracted. In his latest workout, Sandman didn’t appear interested and was clocked at just 1:02:40 across five furlongs.

Jose Ortiz will be aboard Sandman, so that is a huge plus, though! He is one of the better jockeys and could navigate Sandman past traffic. However, it all comes down to which Sandman shows up on Saturday. If he wants to run, there is a legitimate shot at victory, but there’s too much uncertainty with this horse.