NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 22: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Cavaliers vs. Knicks)

Jarrett Allen’s return to the floor gives Cleveland a distinct edge on the opening tip, and that immediately sets up Donovan Mitchell as a prime first basket target against the Knicks.

Allen has ranked among the league’s elite in jump ball win percentage for years, and when he’s in the circle, Cleveland often controls the first possession.

That early touch usually funnels to Mitchell. The All-Star guard led the Cavs in shot attempts and was the team’s most frequent first-shot taker last season. He’s averaging 18.6 attempts and 24 points per game this year, reinforcing his alpha status in the offense.

With the jump ball advantage and Mitchell’s volume, the +500 odds for him are one of the best NBA first basket bets today.

Victor Wembanyama +490 (Spurs vs. Mavericks)

Victor Wembanyama opens the 2025–26 season with something to prove, and the first basket market gives us a great spot to back the Spurs’ franchise star. The 7-foot-4 phenom was one of the NBA’s best at jump balls last season thanks to his unmatched size and wingspan, giving San Antonio a strong shot at securing the opening possession against Dallas.

Wemby's footwork is just UNFAIR 👽 pic.twitter.com/JAGKuWxa0K

— NBA (@NBA) October 18, 2025

With the ball likely in his team’s hands, look for Wemby to waste no time. He averaged 24.3 points on 18.6 field goal attempts in his second season, showing no hesitation as the Spurs’ offensive centerpiece. Despite a DVT diagnosis that cut his year short at 46 games, the “Alien” is fully healthy and poised to make an immediate statement.

At +490, Wembanyama is a compelling first basket pick with the tip-off edge and the green light to score early.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.