NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 23: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +450 (Thunder vs. Pacers)

The matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers is primed for a fast start and we’re siding with Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander (+450) to open the scoring.

Gilgeous­‑Alexander carried the Thunder through a brutal double‑OT win this week, firing 26 shots and pouring in 35 points. He clearly owns the offensive initiation role and is already warmed up.

On top of that the Thunder should win the opening jump via their 7‑foot center Isaiah Hartenstein over Indiana’s 6‑foot‑8 Isaiah Jackson. That gives the Thunder possession advantage right out the gate.

Shai in the 4Q and both OTs:

24 PTS
4 REB
2 AST
2 STL
1 BLK

The moments you want the reigning Kia MVP to step up… and SGA stepped up 💯 pic.twitter.com/qwMQ2uvDEC

— NBA (@NBA) October 22, 2025

Once the ball is theirs it’s logical for Gilgeous‑Alexander to take over. He’s the driving engine, the shot‑setter and the go‑to bucket guy. With the odds set at +450, this is one of the best NBA first basket scorer prop bet today.

Nikola Jokic +500 (Nuggets vs. Warriors)

Nikola Jokic (+500) stands out as a sharp first basket play in the Nuggets’ opener against the Warriors.

Denver holds a decisive edge at the jump with Jokic towering over Draymond Green. Golden State has struggled consistently to win opening tips due to their lack of size in the middle, and that sets the stage for Jokic to dictate the early tempo.

A NIKOLA JOKIĆ MASTERCLASS 🔥🃏

▪️ 39 PTS
▪️ 10 REB
▪️ 4 AST
▪️ 3 STL

Serbia improves to 3-0 in @EuroBasket group play! pic.twitter.com/mwPG6aglVW

— NBA (@NBA) August 30, 2025

Once Denver has possession, Jokic becomes the focal point. He led the Nuggets with 29.6 points per game last season and averaged nearly 20 shot attempts. Whether it’s a quick post-up or a crafty midrange look, the offense flows through him from the jump.

With the Warriors lacking an interior presence and Jokic in full control, this is a spot where the MVP-caliber center can strike first.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.