NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 24: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Trae Young +550 (Hawks vs. Magic)

Friday night’s matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic presents a compelling scenario for a first basket bet. With Kristaps Porziņģis in Atlanta’s center spot, the Hawks should start with a clear edge in the opening jump ball.

Porziņģis has been among the league’s better performers in tip‑offs throughout his NBA tenure, which boosts the Hawks’ chances of grabbing the opening possession.

Into that advantage steps veteran guard Trae Young. He’s fresh off a 27‑point outing on 14 shots against the Toronto Raptors and remains the Hawks’ offensive focal point since his 2018‑19 arrival.

Trae Young last season:

🥶 24.2 PPG
🥶 11.6 APG (career high)
🥶 Handles for days

What do you expect from the Hawks floor general in 2025-26? pic.twitter.com/MJOYO1xTWE

— NBA (@NBA) July 30, 2025

With the opening possession likely in his team’s hands and his leading role on the team, backing Trae Young to score the first basket at odds of +550 is one of the best NBA first basket bets today.

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Cavaliers vs. Nets)

The Cleveland Cavaliers open up as strong candidates to control the first possession thanks to Jarrett Allen, one of the most reliable jump ball centers in the league. With Allen likely securing the tip, the ball should immediately find its way into the hands of Donovan Mitchell, who operates as the offensive catalyst for Cleveland.

Mitchell wasted no time asserting himself on opening night, putting up 31 points on a floor-high 25 field goal attempts against the Knicks. That kind of volume is exactly what you want to see when targeting a first basket scorer. His role as the primary shot creator for the Cavaliers ensures he’s not just touching the ball first, he’s looking to score.

DONOVAN MITCHELL, ARE YOU SERIOUS??

Spin move into the triple for 21 3Q points… too tough.

CLE-NYK is TIED heading into the final period 🍿 pic.twitter.com/l0fG7tuQYf

— NBA (@NBA) October 23, 2025

At +500 odds, Mitchell offers solid value in this spot. With Cleveland expected to start fast and the shot volume in his favor, he’s a strong bet to put the first points on the board against Brooklyn.

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Spurs vs. Pelicans)

Victor Wembanyama made a statement in his NBA debut, dropping 40 points and showcasing the rare combination of size, skill, and versatility that has fans and bettors buzzing. Now, as the Spurs face the Pelicans, Wembanyama looks like a prime candidate to cash first scorer tickets.

Standing at 7-foot-4 with a wingspan that swallows space, Wemby should have a clear edge in the jump ball, giving San Antonio a strong chance at the opening possession.

Once the ball is theirs, Wembanyama is a prime candidate for the first shot. He isn’t just the Spurs’ most talented option, but also their most aggressive scorer out of the gate.

VICTOR WEMBANYAMA TONIGHT:

40 POINTS
15 REBOUNDS
3 BLOCKS
77.4% TS%

THE LEAGUE IS REALLY IN TROUBLE

pic.twitter.com/w0MWoBsB71

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) October 23, 2025

With the ability to stretch the floor or overpower defenders in the paint, Wembanyama is dangerous from all areas. At +400, there’s strong value backing him to strike first. The spotlight is his, and so is the opportunity for your best NBA first scorer picks.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.