NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 28: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Bam Adebayo +500 (Hornets vs. Heat)

Bam Adebayo jumps off the board at +500 to score the first basket against Charlotte. With rookie big man Kel’el Ware handling jump duties for the Hornets, the Heat have the edge in securing the opening tip. That gives Miami the early shot to strike first, and Adebayo is the best bet to cash in.

GOODNIGHT NEW YORK FROM BAM pic.twitter.com/jA2spyTejj

— Heat Central (@HeatCulture13) October 27, 2025

The Heat center is averaging 19.3 points through three games and has been aggressive early, logging 15 or more shot attempts in each of the last two. Adebayo carved out a reputation last season as one of the most reliable first basket plays, and that trend looks poised to continue.

Between his usage, tip-off edge, and interior matchup against a shaky Hornets frontcourt, Adebayo offers top-tier value at +500. It’s a solid angle for bettors targeting the first scorer market tonight.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +440 (Kings vs. Thunder)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is delivering MVP-caliber production to open the season, and tonight he’s a strong play at +440 to strike first. With Chet Holmgren at center, the Thunder hold a clear edge on the opening tip thanks to Holmgren’s length and timing, giving OKC a likely first possession.

From there, expect SGA to be the one pulling the trigger. He’s averaging an eye-popping 35.8 points on 51% shooting and leads the league in early-season field goal attempts at 24.7 per game. He’s been aggressive right from the jump, creating and taking shots in rhythm.

55 points for SGA, new career-high 📊 pic.twitter.com/RAllUB3yqk

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) October 24, 2025

All signs point to Gilgeous-Alexander getting the first look in a fast-paced matchup against the Kings. With volume, efficiency, and control of the offense, he’s a sharp value pick to cash the first basket.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.