NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 13: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +600 (Raptors vs. Cavaliers)

In the matchup between the Toronto Raptors and the Cleveland Cavaliers, all signs point to Donovan Mitchell as a strong candidate for the first‑player‐basket bet at +600.

With the Cavaliers boasting one of the top jump‑ball guys in the league in Jarrett Allen at center‑court, Cleveland should gain the opening possession advantage. The jump ball win‑rate for the Cavs sits near 66.7 % whereas the Raptors are at about 45.5 % — that initial edge matters in these props.

DONOVAN MITCHELL ARE YOU SERIOUS???pic.twitter.com/mQSbMeUzEP

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) November 11, 2025

Mitchell has been ultra‑active this season, averaging 20.4 field‑goal attempts and putting up 30.4 points per game. He’s the clear go‑to option in Cleveland’s attack.

Given the opening possession likely, and Mitchell’s aggressive nature, the case is strong for him to touch rim early and put the first points on the board. At those odds, there’s value here.

Lauri Markkanen +430 (Hawks vs. Jazz)

Lauri Markkanen is an intriguing target for the first basket prop at +430 as the Jazz host the Hawks. Utah enters this game with a massive edge in the jump ball, winning 90.9% of opening tips this season, tied for best in the league. In contrast, Atlanta is converting just 45.5% of tip-offs, setting the stage for Utah to get the ball and strike first.

Markkanen has been the Jazz’s go-to scorer early and often. He leads the team in total shot attempts and first shot opportunities, averaging 20.2 shots and 28.3 points per game on an efficient 46.8% shooting. At 7’1”, his size and skill allow him to create mismatches immediately out of the gate.

Lauri Markkanen (35 PTS, 5 3PM) fuels the @utahjazz to the highest scoring output by ANY team this season (152) 🫡

That's his 7th game with at least 35 points & 5 triples since joining the Jazz! pic.twitter.com/u3aUPXtnLb

— NBA (@NBA) November 12, 2025

With the Jazz likely to get the first possession and Markkanen firmly established as their offensive engine, this is a well-priced play in the first basket market.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.