NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 18: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Franz Wagner +500 (Warriors vs. Magic)

Franz Wagner is a standout target in the first basket market tonight when the Magic face the Warriors. Orlando comes in as one of the NBA’s elite jump ball squads, winning nearly 86% of their opening tips this season.

That gives them a strong edge in securing the first possession against a Warriors team that’s struggled mightily in that department, cashing in just 40% of the time.

FRANZ WAGNER BACK-TO-BACK THREES TO GIVE THE MAGIC THE W🔥 pic.twitter.com/f8b41zANwa

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) November 15, 2025

With Paolo Banchero sidelined, Wagner steps into an even more prominent scoring role. He’s averaging 23.1 points on 46.1% shooting and has ramped up his volume lately, logging 20 or more shot attempts in two of his last three games. The opportunity and the usage are both pointing in his direction.

At +500, Wagner offers sharp value as a first scorer bet. The game script sets up perfectly for him to strike early.

Lauri Markkanen +500 (Jazz vs. Lakers)

Lauri Markkanen is quickly becoming a fixture in the first basket market, and there’s no reason to step away now. The Jazz have been automatic in jump balls this season, winning a league-best 92.3% of opening tips. That sets the stage once again for Utah to dictate the first possession against the Lakers.

Markkanen has capitalized on that early control better than most. He’s already scored the first points in five games this season and is averaging a blistering 30.6 points on 47.9% shooting through 13 games.

Lauri.
Markkanen.
Masterclass.

47 POINTS to get above 30 PPG for the season and power Utah's 2OT win! pic.twitter.com/DNvHHEhz5a

— NBA (@NBA) November 17, 2025

What’s more impressive is the volume, as he’s hoisted 78 shots in his last two games alone, a clear sign the offense is running through him from the opening whistle. With both the opportunity and recent form lining up, Markkanen at +500 is one of the most appealing first scorer bets on the board tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.