NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 20: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Franz Wagner +450 (Clippers vs. Magic)

The Orlando Magic are quietly one of the best teams to back in the NBA first basket market, and Thursday’s matchup with the Clippers sets up nicely for another quick strike.

Orlando leads the league in opening tip win percentage, grabbing the first possession a staggering 86.7% of the time. That early edge puts Franz Wagner in a great spot to cash this prop.

Franz Wagner turnaround midrange jumper over Moody pic.twitter.com/3vHVNFh4d0

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) November 19, 2025

With Paolo Banchero sidelined, Wagner becomes the focal point of the offense and has already delivered four first baskets this season, tied for the most on the team. He’s playing with serious intent, averaging 22.8 points on 45.7% shooting and launching at least 17 shots in each of his last four outings.

Given his aggressive role and Orlando’s dominance at center court, Wagner at +450 to score first brings solid value in tonight’s player prop market.

Cedric Coward +550 (Kings vs. Grizzlies)

With Zach Edey now anchoring the middle, the Grizzlies are primed to control the opening tip, and that puts rookie forward Cedric Coward firmly in play for first basket honors.

Memphis is set to benefit against a Kings squad that’s been woeful at center court, winning just 20% of tip-offs this season. That early edge gives Coward a clear path to getting the first look.

CEDRIC COWARD TONIGHT AGAINST THE SPURS :

– 19 Points
– 11 Rebounds
– 7/15 FG | 5/7 3PT
– +3 +/-
– 26 Minutes

Great showing from the rook on the big stage. 💯 pic.twitter.com/ZoDUINaOhq

— Grizz Lead (@Grizz_Lead) November 19, 2025

The absence of Jaren Jackson Jr. shifts more offensive responsibility to Coward, who’s answered the call with 14.3 points per game on an efficient 47.7% from the field. He’s shown growing confidence and isn’t shy about getting involved early.

With Edey likely securing the first possession and Coward stepping into a larger scoring role, the +550 price makes him a sharp pick to strike first in Sacramento.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.