NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 25: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Franz Wagner +500 (Magic vs. 76ers)

Franz Wagner is a sharp first basket target at +500 in Tuesday’s matchup between the Magic and 76ers, especially with Orlando holding a clear edge on the opening tip.

The Magic have won 83.3% of jump balls this season, significantly better than Philly’s 56.3% mark. That gives Wagner a strong chance to get the first crack at scoring, and he’s more than capable of capitalizing.

Franz Wagner vs NYK pic.twitter.com/nIxTKW2oFL

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 23, 2025

Wagner has emerged as Orlando’s offensive leader, averaging 23 points on 47.1% shooting while putting up over 16 field goal attempts per game. He’s aggressive early in games and often looks to establish a rhythm quickly, making him a prime candidate to score the game’s first points.

With a likely first possession and a proven scorer in Wagner, the +500 odds present clear value in this first basket prop.

LeBron James +700 (Lakers vs. Clippers)

LeBron James is worth a strong look at +700 to score the first basket in the Lakers vs. Clippers matchup, with early touches and tip-off trends both tilting in his favor.

The Lakers have been excellent on opening tips this season, winning 62.5% of them compared to the Clippers’ rough 29.4% rate. That gives LeBron a solid shot at the first offensive possession, and he’s already shown a willingness to get involved early.

LEBRON MF JAMES

🔥🔥🔥

pic.twitter.com/Q3U48cEwCs

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 24, 2025

After easing into the season opener, James ramped up quickly with 17 points on 18 shot attempts in his second game, already cashing a first basket in one of those two starts. With the rust coming off and the Lakers likely opening with the ball, expect James to call his own number and take advantage of a favorable early-game spot.

At +700, the value is well worth the swing on James’ NBA first scorer odds tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.