NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 26: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Devin Booker +450 (Suns vs. Kings)

Devin Booker is well-positioned to strike first in tonight’s matchup between the Suns and Kings, offering solid value at +450 in the first basket market. The edge starts with the jump ball, where Phoenix holds a decisive advantage.

The Suns are winning two-thirds of opening tips this season, while Sacramento sits near the bottom at just 27.8%. That discrepancy gives Booker and the Suns the early opportunity to control possession and set the tone.

Shot difficulty = 💯

My goodness, Book! pic.twitter.com/jQ7CrKLuKg

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) November 25, 2025

Booker is the engine of Phoenix’s offense, leading the team with 26.4 points per game and averaging 18.8 field goal attempts. His 46.9% shooting clip underscores just how efficient he is with those chances. When the Suns get the ball early, Booker is usually the first option.

Given the favorable jump ball trend and Booker’s clear role as the primary scorer, he stands out as a sharp play to notch the first bucket at +450 odds.

Norman Powell +500 (Bucks vs. Heat)

Norman Powell is primed for a quick strike against the Bucks, making him a sharp first basket play at +500. The Heat have been strong in opening tips this season, winning 61.1% of them, while Milwaukee has struggled badly at just 27.8%. That early edge in possession gives Powell the inside track to get the first shot up.

The Heat guard has been red-hot, averaging 25.4 points per game on an efficient 50% shooting clip. He’s letting it fly with 16.4 field goal attempts per game, and his scoring versatility makes him dangerous from anywhere on the floor, whether it’s an early drive to the hoop or a spot-up three.

Norman Powell powers the @MiamiHEAT to their 4th straight win!

🔥 32 PTS
🔥 4 3PM
🔥 11-18 FGM pic.twitter.com/QzVt4EDSOS

— NBA (@NBA) November 23, 2025

Given Miami’s expected first possession and Powell’s aggressive shot volume, the +500 number offers real value. He checks every box as a first scorer candidate in this spot.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.