NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 4: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Keyonte George +650 (Jazz vs. Nets)

Utah enters Thursday’s clash with Brooklyn knowing how important the opening tip will be. The Jazz win roughly eighty percent of their jump balls and that jump‑ball dominance often leads to the first points on opening possessions.

Even though the Nets have won nearly sixty two percent of their toss ups over recent games the edge still seems to lean toward Utah when tip‑offs become position battles. At the center of this play is Keyonte George.

KEYONTE GEORGE TAKES FLIGHT ✈️

Buddy the Elf was brought to his feet 😂

Watch on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/M9UiAmIx5U pic.twitter.com/1GW0Yk5bwl

— NBA (@NBA) December 2, 2025

He is ramping up offensively and this season is putting up 22.8 points per game shooting at 46% from the field. He is averaging 16 attempts per game, the highest of his three-year career.

That level of involvement makes him one of the better candidates league‑wide for grabbing opening basket chances. At +650, George offers serious value to score the first basket in this one.

LeBron James +600 (Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers)

The Lakers have a favorable setup for first basket bets tonight against the Raptors, and it starts with the opening tip. Winning 65% of jump balls compared to Toronto’s 54.5% gives LA a strong shot at controlling the first possession. That edge makes LeBron James a compelling option at +600.

The only player ever to have a double-double in his 23rd season:

LeBron James 👑🐐 pic.twitter.com/u1AteB7xp2

— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) November 19, 2025

With Luka Doncic sidelined for personal reasons, James steps into the clear lead role in the offense. Even in a season where his numbers have dipped, he’s still averaging 15.2 points on 46% shooting and remains a go-to option early in games.

His experience and usage rate spikes in Doncic’s absence, giving him more chances to make an immediate impact. At +600, the value is tough to ignore. With the Lakers likely to win the tip and James elevated in the rotation, this sets up as a smart look for a first basket play.

Tyrese Maxey +480 (Warriors vs. 76ers)

Tyrese Maxey offers strong value at +480 to score the first basket tonight against Golden State. The edge starts at tip-off. The Sixers win the opening jump 55% of the time, while the Warriors come in at a brutal 36.4%. That early possession advantage puts Maxey in prime position to get the game’s first shot.

Maxey is in the middle of a breakout season, pouring in 32.5 points per game on 47% shooting. He’s not shy about getting up shots either, averaging 23.1 attempts per night. That kind of aggressive usage, especially early in games, makes him a natural target in the first basket market.

TYRESE MAXEY IN THE PAST TWO GAMES:

35 PTS – 6 AST – 4 REB
44 PTS – 9 AST – 7 REB

STAR OF THE SHOW. (via @realapp) pic.twitter.com/Xy9TRppfcT

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) December 3, 2025

With defenders keying on Embiid early, Maxey often gets the first look, and he’s been cashing in. At +480, this is a high-upside bet on one of the league’s hottest scorers in a favorable setup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.