NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 8: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Andrew Nembhard +800 (Kings vs. Pacers)

Andrew Nembhard offers one of the most intriguing first basket values on the board at +800 as the Pacers take on the Kings. Sacramento’s issues in the jump ball circle are well documented, as their 26.1% success rate ranks among the worst in the league. Indiana isn’t lighting it up at 39.1%, but that edge gives them a solid chance to open with possession.

paint work 🎨

Andrew Nembhard in the lane. pic.twitter.com/I0VOxJbGMy

— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) December 6, 2025

That’s where Nembhard becomes an immediate threat. The third-year guard is having a breakout campaign in 2025‑26, increasing his scoring to 17.2% per game while nearly doubling his shot attempts from last season. He’s clearly been given more offensive freedom, and Nembhard has responded with an aggressive mindset early in games.

In a matchup that should move at a quick tempo, Nembhard is in a prime spot to strike first. Given his elevated usage and Sacramento’s tip-off struggles, the +800 tag looks like a savvy first scorer bet.

Devin Vassell +600 (Spurs vs. Pelicans)

Devin Vassell looks like a prime first basket target at +600 when the Spurs meet the Pelicans on Monday. New Orleans owns the worst jump ball win rate in the league at just 20.8%, and while San Antonio is without Victor Wembanyama, they’ve still excelled in that area.

With Luke Kornet handling the opening tip, the Spurs have claimed 72.7% of jump balls this season. That advantage sets up an early look for Vassell, who’s consistently been one of the Spurs’ most assertive offensive threats.

DYLAN ➡️ DEVIN

📺 @FanDuelSN_SW pic.twitter.com/OaL1vTnq9u

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) December 3, 2025

He’s averaging 16.2 points on 44.1% shooting and puts up 13.2 shots per game, with volume that puts him in the mix right away after the tip. With the Spurs expected to take the opening possession and Vassell’s aggressive tendencies early in games, the +600 price point presents real value.

He’s a legitimate threat to put the first points on the board in this one, so a top play for your NBA first scorer picks.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.