NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 9: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +650 (Magic vs. Heat)

Orlando enters this matchup with a sneaky edge in the first basket market. The Magic are winning 75% of opening tips this season, giving them a significant edge in securing the game’s first shot. That’s a sharp contrast to the Heat’s 54.2% jump ball rate, which tilts the early possession math in Orlando’s favor.

Paolo Banchero C&S three, Jalen Suggs assists pic.twitter.com/qi2wVEADFY

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) December 7, 2025

With Paolo Banchero back in the starting lineup, the timing is right to target him at +650. He’s averaging 20.4 points on 45.2% shooting and has been ramped up slowly over the past two games.

Tonight, he’s expected to see a full workload against Miami’s defense, which hasn’t been nearly as stingy early in games. Also, note that Franz Wager is out, leaving more of the heavy lifting to Banchero this evening.

Given the possession advantage and Banchero’s aggressiveness on Tuesday, there’s strong value in backing him to strike first at this number.

Brandon Ingram +500 (Knicks vs. Raptors)

Toronto has the early-possession edge heading into Tuesday’s clash with New York, and that gives Brandon Ingram a solid shot at cashing the first basket. The Raptors have won 56% of their jump balls this season, outpacing a Knicks squad sitting at just 47.8%.

BRANDON INGRAM WITH AUTHORITY 🤯😤 pic.twitter.com/vpVfxcsYxr

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 18, 2025

That difference could matter in what’s expected to be a tight, half-court game early. Ingram has stepped into a lead scoring role for Toronto, averaging 21.2 points on 46.6% shooting while putting up 17 shots per game. He’s also hit the 20-point mark in three of his last four outings, signaling a confident rhythm as the focal point of the offense.

If the Raptors control the tip, Ingram is a likely candidate to get the first look. At +500, there’s real value in backing him to open the scoring.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.