Auto NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 15: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Keyonte George +750 (Mavericks vs. Jazz)

Keyonte George at +750 to score the first basket in the Mavericks versus Jazz game is too tempting to pass up. The Jazz have been one of the strongest teams in the league at winning the opening tip and with roughly three out of four jump balls going their way they should grab the first possession in this matchup. Dallas has been under 45% on jump balls so the early edge clearly goes to Utah.

CAREER NIGHT FOR KEYONTE GEORGE!

🎵 39 PTS (career-high)
🎵 6 REB
🎵 8 AST
🎵 2 STL
🎵 5 3PM

Jazz get the win on the road! pic.twitter.com/GslaQ7GoLf

— NBA (@NBA) December 13, 2025

George has stepped up in a big way this season. He is averaging a career high 22.9 points per game while shooting 44.9% from the field. He is also seeing a career high 16.1 field goal attempts per contest showing he is a central focus of the Jazz offense.

In his last outing George exploded for 39 points on 12 of 20 shooting against Memphis showing he is confident and aggressive early. That makes the +750 odds great value for a first scorer play.

Nikola Jokic +500 (Rockets vs. Nuggets)

Nikola Jokic at +500 to score the first basket against the Rockets brings real value, especially with Houston struggling mightily in jump balls. They’ve secured the opening tip just 27% of the time this season, giving Denver a strong chance to control the game from the first possession.

Jokic is in MVP form, averaging 29.5 points on a blistering 62.2% shooting. He’s also hitting 42.4% from deep, making him a threat from anywhere on the floor. Against a Houston frontcourt that lacks a true answer for him, the Nuggets are likely to feed their star early and often.

👀🃏 pic.twitter.com/9FPn29S6DG

— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) November 12, 2023

With the edge in possession and a glaring mismatch down low, the Serbian is in prime position to cash this first scorer bet. Jokic’s efficiency and versatility make the +500 price tag one of the better values for your NBA first scorer picks tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.