NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 6: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +600 (Magic vs. Wizards)

The Magic offer strong value in the first player basket market tonight against the Wizards, and the numbers point clearly in their favor to open the scoring. Orlando has been one of the best teams in the league at controlling the opening tip, and that edge matters greatly in this prop market.

The Magic lead the NBA in jump ball success at 75%, while Washington has struggled mightily in that area with just a 41.2% win rate. That gap gives Orlando a clear path to the first possession, setting the stage for a designed early look for their top option.

Paolo Banchero highlights vs. IND:

28 PTS
12 REB
5 AST
3 3PM@Kia pic.twitter.com/cBA7LKQohK

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) January 4, 2026

Paolo Banchero is the natural candidate to capitalize. Since returning to action, he has played with noticeable aggression, averaging 21 points per game and attempting at least 18 field goals in each of his last four starts. Orlando consistently looks to establish him early in games.

At +600, Banchero stands out as excellent first basket value in a matchup where the Magic are well positioned to strike first.

Luka Doncic +400 (Lakers vs. Pelicans)

There is clear value on Luka Doncic to score the first basket when the Lakers host the Pelicans, especially given how the opening possession is likely to play out. New Orleans has been one of the weakest jump ball teams in the league, winning just 18.9% of its tips this season, which puts them at an immediate disadvantage.

Luka Dončić put together a masterful showing to guide the Lakers to a comeback victory!

🌟 36 PTS
🌟 9 REB
🌟 8 AST
🌟 4 3PM pic.twitter.com/w04SJpcDuh

— NBA (@NBA) January 5, 2026

The Lakers sit on the other side of that equation, winning 66.7% of their jump balls. That edge strongly suggests Los Angeles controls the first possession, and when that happens, the offense predictably flows through Doncic.

Doncic has been the most aggressive scorer on the floor, averaging 33.7 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. He also leads the Lakers with 22.3 field goal attempts per contest, reinforcing how often he looks to attack early and often.

With possession edge and usage firmly in his corner, Doncic at +400 presents strong first basket value against a Pelicans team that struggles to start games.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.