NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 16: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Michael Porter Jr. +450 (Bulls vs. Nets)

The first basket market often hinges on which team controls the opening possession, and this matchup points clearly toward Brooklyn. The Nets are in a strong position to win the opening tip with a 63.2% jump ball success rate, while Chicago has struggled badly in that area. The Bulls have won just 35% of their tips this season, ranking near the bottom of the league and making it likely they start on defense.

If Brooklyn secures the first possession, the next question is who takes that opening shot. Michael Porter Jr. profiles as a strong candidate in this role. He leads the Nets with 25.7 points per game and is converting 48.6% of his shots from the field, showing both volume and efficiency.

Michael Porter Jr. creates separation from his defender with the polished behind-the-back dribble and sinks the triple 🔥

His 3rd three of the opening quarter! pic.twitter.com/7I6jsPcovu

— NBA (@NBA) January 15, 2026

Porter’s aggressive mindset adds to his appeal in this market. He averages 18.7 field goal attempts per game, which increases his chances of being involved early.

At +450 odds, Porter offers solid value to score the first basket in the Bulls versus the Nets.

Evan Mobley +650 (Cavaliers vs. 76ers)

First basket prop betting offers strong value in this matchup, and Evan Mobley checks several key boxes to open the scoring. Mobley leads Cleveland with seven first baskets in games he has started, accounting for the first points in 20.6% of those contests. That type of hit rate immediately puts his +650 odds in an appealing range.

Mobley also enters this game in solid form as a reliable interior scorer. He is averaging 17.9 points per game while shooting an efficient 51.7% from the field, with most of his damage coming in the paint. That high percentage profile is ideal for a first basket bet, where quick and clean looks matter most.

Evan Mobley was all over the place pic.twitter.com/nDVcP7SSY9

— Mack Perry (@DevaronPerry) January 15, 2026

Cleveland also holds an edge at the opening tip. The Cavaliers have won roughly 60% of their jump balls compared to 51% for Philadelphia, increasing the likelihood of the first possession.

At +650 odds, Mobley stands out as one of the strongest first scorer options on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.