NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 19: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Stephon Castle +800 (Jazz vs. Spurs)

The Spurs profile as one of the strongest first basket targets when facing Utah, with the return of Victor Wembanyama to the starting lineup adding an extra boost. With the 7’4” center looming at midcourt, San Antonio consistently controls the opening possession. Wembanyama routinely overwhelms opposing centers on the tip, setting the tone right from the opening whistle.

That advantage shows up in the numbers. The Spurs have won 69% of their jump balls overall, and that figure would push past 75% if Wembanyama had been healthy all season. Extra possessions early translate directly into clean first scoring chances, especially against a Jazz team that struggles in these spots.

T👀 nice Steph

📺 @FanDuelSN_SW pic.twitter.com/vR9gswwWdm

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) January 16, 2026

That is where Stephon Castle comes into play. Castle is enjoying a breakout second season, averaging 17 points per game while shooting 46.1% from the field. At +800, this is outstanding value for a first player basket bet built on usage, efficiency, and a clear possession edge.

Donovan Mitchell +650 (Cavaliers vs. Thunder)

Donovan Mitchell stands out as one of the strongest first basket options on the board in this matchup between Cleveland and Oklahoma City. The Cavaliers are positioned to control the opening possession, giving Mitchell an early opportunity to strike before the game settles in.

Cleveland has won 60.5% of its jump balls this season, a modest figure but still an edge over the Thunder. Oklahoma City has claimed 55.8% of its opening tips, leaving them slightly behind the Cavs when it comes to securing that first offensive look. That small gap matters in first scorer markets where possession is everything.

Donovan Mitchell scored from all three levels in the @cavs road victory!

🕷️ 35 PTS
🕷️ 7 REB
🕷️ 9 AST
🕷️ 5 3PM pic.twitter.com/xywlrEiFWM

— NBA (@NBA) January 15, 2026

Once the ball is in his hands, Mitchell is the clear focal point. He leads Cleveland with 29.2 points per game while shooting 48.9% from the field. He is also the most aggressive option on the floor, averaging 20.7 field goal attempts per game.

At +650, the combination of efficiency and possession advantage creates strong value for this first player basket prop bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.