NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 21: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Michael Porter Jr. +500 (Nets vs. Knicks)

Brooklyn is set up nicely to control the opening possession in this matchup, giving the Nets a clear path to score first against New York. They have been reliable on the opening tip all season, winning 65.9% of jump balls. That mark stands well above a Knicks team that has captured just 53.5% of its tips, creating an early edge for Brooklyn.

With the first possession likely secured, the focus shifts immediately to Michael Porter Jr. He has been the primary early scoring option for the Nets and continues to deliver with efficiency and volume. Porter is averaging 25.7 points per game while shooting 48.5% from the field, and he is not shy about letting it fly early with 18.8 field goal attempts per game.

"He is a living, breathing bucket."

Ian Eagle telling no lies about Michael Porter Jr. pic.twitter.com/3mBaMyLh2H

— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) December 30, 2025

Those tendencies show up in the results. Porter leads Brooklyn with seven first buckets and has scored first in 21.2% of the games he has started. At +500, he profiles as a strong NBA first player basket bet.

Evan Mobley +500 (Cavaliers vs. Hornets)

Cleveland is well positioned to strike first in this matchup, with the Cavaliers expected to control the opening possession against Charlotte. That early edge is critical in first basket markets, and the numbers clearly favor Cleveland in this spot.

The Cavaliers have won 61.4% of their jump balls this season, while the Hornets sit at just 46.5%. That gap gives Cleveland a strong chance to open the game with the ball and immediately look for a high percentage scoring option. Against a Charlotte team that struggles to win the tip, the path to the first points is straightforward.

EVAN MOBLEY WINS IT FOR THE CAVS IN PHILLY!

Cavs have won 6 of the last 7 games vs. the Sixers 😳 pic.twitter.com/YUuPTBP7sY

— ESPN (@espn) January 17, 2026

Evan Mobley stands out as the best value play at +500. He leads the Cavaliers with eight first baskets and has scored first in 22.2% of the games he has started. Mobley brings efficiency to the table as well, averaging 17.8 points per game on 51.7% shooting.

With possession advantage and proven early scoring results, Mobley is the one of the best NBA first basket prop bets today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.