NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 29: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Dillon Brooks +550 (Pistons vs. Suns)

With Devin Booker still sidelined, Dillon Brooks continues to benefit from an expanded offensive role, and this matchup against Detroit sets up well for an early scoring opportunity. Brooks has shown a willingness to attack right from the opening tip, especially with the Suns looking for secondary options to set the tone.

CLUTCH 3 FROM DILLON BROOKS ‼️

Suns holding a late lead on NBA League Pass. pic.twitter.com/tSBYwYJ6Td

— NBA (@NBA) January 5, 2026

Phoenix is in a strong position to control the opening possession. The Suns have won 72.3% of their jump balls this season, while Detroit has struggled at just 42.2%. That possession edge gives Phoenix a clear path to the first shot attempt, which is critical in first basket markets.

Brooks enters the game in strong form, coming off back to back performances of 26 points against the Heat and the Nets. He has taken at least 15 field goal attempts in three of his last four games, showing increased confidence and volume.

At +550, Brooks offers excellent value as a first player basket bet.

Chet Holmgren +600 (Thunder vs. Timberwolves)

Oklahoma City holds a slight but meaningful edge in the race for the opening possession, which makes the Thunder a strong angle in the first player basket market against Minnesota. They have won 56.3% of their jump balls this season, narrowly topping the Timberwolves at 53%. That small advantage can make all the difference when targeting first scorer props.

Chet Holmgren continues to stand out as Oklahoma City’s best early game option and the value at +600 is hard to ignore. Holmgren has been excellent at setting the tone, leading the Thunder with nine first baskets on the season. He has scored the opening points in 21.4% of games, a massive share compared to his teammates.

Chet Holmgren 20 PTS, 14 REB, 3 AST, 5 BLK, 8/14 FG, 1/3 3FG, 65.3% TS vs Pelicans https://t.co/8xGbjulVOA pic.twitter.com/yGgLekbCJX

— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) January 28, 2026

Holmgren enters the matchup averaging 17.9 points per game while shooting an elite 57.1% from the field. He’s an efficient scorer who doesn’t waste many offensive trips. With a possession edge and a proven track record of scoring early, Holmgren profiles as a top NBA first basket bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.