NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 30: Best First Point Scorer Bets

LeBron James +550 (Lakers vs. Wizards)

The Lakers are set up with a clear advantage to open this matchup with the first possession, which immediately points toward a strong first basket opportunity against Washington.

Los Angeles has been one of the most reliable teams on the opening tip, winning roughly 71% of its jump balls. They are among the few teams to clear the 70% mark this season, while the Wizards have struggled badly at around a 35% success rate.

That possession edge puts the Lakers in control right from the opening whistle, and it creates an ideal setup for their primary scoring option. At +550, LeBron James stands out as one of the top first scorer values on the board. James enters this game in excellent form, averaging 22 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field.

"I put the time, and the effort, and the commitment in it."

Obsession is the routine for LeBron James. pic.twitter.com/XQ8Srnand9

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) January 28, 2026

James has been attacking recently, and with Luka Doncic questionable to start after an injury against the Cavaliers, King James is worth betting on. He will take the leading role as go-to scorer. With momentum on his side, James at +550 is a strong NBA first player basket prop.

Paolo Banchero +500 (Thunder vs. Timberwolves)

Paolo Banchero continues to separate himself as one of the strongest first player basket options on the slate as Orlando faces Toronto. The Magic forward is playing with confidence and authority, and his recent scoring surge makes him the clear focal point when Orlando looks to strike early.

Banchero enters the matchup averaging 21.9 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field. His form has been dominant, coming off back to back performances of 37 and 31 points. Across those two starts, he launched 44 field goal attempts, showing just how aggressive he has been from the opening possession onward.

Paolo Banchero’s last 4 games:

29.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 52.9/44.4/76.6 splits.

Where the haters at now? pic.twitter.com/DTdVZVpuaz

— The Sixth Man Show (@SixthManShow) January 29, 2026

He has now scored at least 23 points in six straight games, reinforcing his role as the go to option. The first possession setup favors Orlando as well.

The Magic have won 72% of their jump balls this season, while Toronto sits at just 41%. With that edge, Banchero at +500 stands out as the best NBA first basket picks.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.