NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 4: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +500 (Thunder vs. Knicks)

Defending league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back in the lineup and already making a major impact. He’s posted 36 and 30 points in his first two games since returning, showing no signs of rust.

On the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.8 points per game on an elite 55.1% shooting from the field. Expect him to come out aggressive against the Knicks.

SGA with an EFFICIENT 30-pt performance 🔥

🏀 30 PTS (12-20 FGM)
🏀 4 REB
🏀 5 AST
🏀 4 STL

It was his 59th straight 20‑pt road game, passing Wilt Chamberlain for the longest such streak in NBA history! pic.twitter.com/mxKejM4eGQ

— NBA (@NBA) March 2, 2026

Oklahoma City should have a good chance to control the opening possession, as the Thunder have won better than 50% of their jump balls this season, while New York has had its struggles at the tip.

With SGA’s high usage rate, elite efficiency, and tendency to attack early, +500 presents solid value for an NBA first basket prop bet in this matchup.

Jalen Johnson +650 (Hawks vs. Bucks)

Jalen Johnson stands out as one of the best NBA first basket bets on the board today. Milwaukee has struggled badly in jump ball situations, winning just 26.7% of tip-offs this season.

In contrast, Atlanta has posted a 51.6% success rate, giving the Hawks a strong edge to secure the opening possession. If Atlanta controls the tip, Johnson is the clear focal point. He leads the Hawks with 22.7 points per game on an efficient 49.3% shooting from the field.

Jalen Johnson is the 7th player since 1976-77 with multiple career games of 20 PTS, 15 REB and 15 AST 🤯

Nikola Jokic
Russell Westbrook
Luka Doncic
Magic Johnson
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Larry Bird
Jalen Johnson pic.twitter.com/A3vKfHziSY

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) February 6, 2026

Johnson is also the most active offensive option on the roster, averaging 17.1 field goal attempts per game. With the possession advantage and Johnson’s high usage working in his favor, +650 presents solid value for a first basket prop bet against the Bucks.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.