NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 5: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +450 (Pistons vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama’s first scorer odds deserve strong consideration on Thursday night. At +450, there’s solid value backing the Spurs’ star in a matchup where San Antonio is well positioned to control the opening possession.

The Spurs have been dominant in jump ball situations, winning 73.8% of tip-offs, one of the top marks in the NBA. In contrast, the Pistons have struggled at center court with just a 41.7% success rate. That significant edge gives San Antonio the likely first shot opportunity.

"WEMBY… OH MY. OH MY." pic.twitter.com/AY8R5uSJuu

— NBA (@NBA) March 4, 2026

Wembanyama remains the focal point of the Spurs’ offense, averaging 23.4 points per game on 50.1% shooting from the field. With the ability to score inside, from mid-range, and beyond the arc, he presents multiple paths to opening the scoring.

Given the projected possession advantage and his high usage rate, +450 offers strong value for Wembanyama as an NBA first basket prop bet.

Anthony Edwards +500 (Raptors vs. Timberwolves)

Timberwolves’ superstar Anthony Edwards stands out as one of the strongest NBA first scorer options on the board tonight. Minnesota has a solid opportunity to control the opening possession, winning 50% of its jump balls this season.

While that number is average, it compares favorably to Toronto’s 37.7% success rate, with one of the lowest marks in the league. If the Timberwolves secure the tip, Edwards is the clear focal point to open the scoring.

ANTHONY EDWARDS MVP SEQUENCE 🤯

BUCKET AFTER BUCKET 🍿 pic.twitter.com/0f0AyijrGi

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 4, 2026

He enters Thursday’s matchup averaging 29.7 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field. Edwards also leads Minnesota with 20.9 field goal attempts per game and has been highly effective in the first basket market, recording 13 first baskets in 25.9% of his starts.

With strong usage, elite scoring form, and a projected possession edge, Edwards at +500 offers solid value as an NBA first basket prop bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.