NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 6: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Devin Booker +500 (Pelicans vs. Suns)

Devin Booker stands out as a strong first basket option when the Suns host the Pelicans in Phoenix. The Suns enter the matchup on the second night of a back-to-back, but they still hold a clear advantage in the opening tip.

Phoenix has been one of the best jump ball teams in the NBA, winning roughly 70% of tip-offs. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have struggled heavily in this area with a win rate of just 19.9%, making it likely the Suns control the first possession.

Book being Book 📚 pic.twitter.com/a1dLJWHqvS

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) February 28, 2025

If Phoenix does secure the opening possession, Booker becomes the most logical scoring option. He has returned to the lineup after missing time and is now playing full minutes again. Despite the missed games, Booker still leads the Suns with nine first baskets, cashing in 18.6% of his starts.

With the expected possession edge and Booker’s history of scoring early, his +500 odds provide strong value for a first basket prop tonight.

Victor Wembanyama +470 (Clippers vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama is worth another look in the first basket market when the Spurs face the Clippers. After cashing on a three-pointer in the previous game, the Spurs’ star center remains one of the best candidates to score first thanks to San Antonio’s strong edge at the opening tip.

The Spurs lead the NBA in jump ball success, winning roughly 75% of their tip-offs this season. With Wembanyama anchoring the center position, San Antonio has a clear advantage in securing the opening possession, which greatly increases the chances of an early scoring opportunity.

Game starts with a BANG 💥

📺 @FanDuelSN_SW pic.twitter.com/hjMriOGQ84

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) March 6, 2026

Wembanyama continues to be the focal point of the Spurs’ offense. He enters the matchup averaging 23.4 points per game while shooting 50.1% from the field, and he often looks to get involved early in games.

With the Spurs likely to control the first possession and Wembanyama serving as their primary scoring option, the +470 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop in this matchup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.