NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 13: Best First Point Scorer Bets Draft

Devin Booker +550 (Suns vs. Raptors)

Devin Booker looks like a strong value pick to score the first basket when the Suns face the Raptors. Phoenix holds a clear advantage in the opening tip, winning 72.3% of jump balls this season compared to about 40% for Toronto, giving the Suns a strong chance to control the first possession.

Booker has returned to the lineup in great form and appears to have shaken off any rust. He’s coming off a 43-point performance on 31 field goal attempts against Indiana, showing he’s fully back in aggressive scoring mode.

Book tonight vs Indiana

🔥 43 PTS (season high)
🔥 4-7 4PT
🔥 11-11 FT
🔥 7 REB
🔥 5 AST pic.twitter.com/lGuUGKysLV

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) March 13, 2026

On the season, Booker is averaging 25.3 points per game on 45% shooting, and he remains the focal point of the Suns’ offense. When Phoenix gets early possessions, Booker is often the player they rely on to create the first scoring opportunity.

With the Suns likely to win the opening jump ball and Booker attacking early, +550 odds offer excellent value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

Jalen Brunson +550 (Knicks vs. Pacers)

Knicks’ guard Jalen Brunson is a strong candidate to score the first basket when the Knicks face the Pacers. New York holds a slight advantage in the opening tip, winning 52.2% of jump balls this season compared to 46.2% for Indiana, giving the Knicks a better chance to control the first possession.

JALEN BRUNSON TOUGH SHOT 🎯 pic.twitter.com/Z57opBNQrD

— ESPN (@espn) March 5, 2026

If New York secures the opening tip, Brunson is the most likely player to attack early. He’s the focal point of the Knicks’ offense and consistently looks to create scoring opportunities right away.

Brunson is averaging 26.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field this season. He’s also in strong form, having scored 24 or more points in three straight games, showing confidence and aggressiveness offensively.

New York is likely to get the first possession and Brunson leading the offense, so +550 odds offer appealing value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.