NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 16: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Luka Doncic +450 (Lakers vs. Rockets)

Luka Dončić is a strong candidate to score the first basket when the Los Angeles Lakers face the Houston Rockets. Los Angeles has a clear advantage in the opening tip, winning 64.2% of jump balls this season compared to 37.9% for Houston, giving the Lakers a strong chance to control the first possession.

If the Lakers secure the opening tip, Dončić is one of the most likely players to take the first shot. He has been extremely aggressive offensively and continues to lead the attack for Los Angeles.

LUKA GAME WINNER IN OT THRILLER VS NUGGETS 🤯🪄

WHAT. A. GAME. pic.twitter.com/dqYJylTlZo

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 15, 2026

Dončić is averaging 32.8 points per game on 47.3% shooting this season and has shown a willingness to fire early in games. He has attempted 24 or more field goals in six games, often leading to 27+ point performances.

With the Lakers likely to start with the ball and Dončić serving as the primary offensive option, +450 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Spurs vs. Clippers)

Victor Wembanyama continues to be one of the strongest options in the first basket prop market when the San Antonio Spurs meet the Los Angeles Clippers.

San Antonio has a massive edge in the opening tip. The Spurs have won over 75% of jump balls, the best mark in the NBA, while the Clippers sit around 46%. With Wembanyama handling most of the tip-offs, San Antonio has a great chance to control the opening possession and get the first scoring opportunity.

If the Spurs win the tip, the offense often looks to their star big man right away. Wembanyama is capable of scoring from anywhere, inside, mid-range, or beyond the arc, which makes him a frequent early-game scoring threat.

Wemby has been on a tear recently 🔥

Could this be his new norm? 👽 pic.twitter.com/Z2QxYZn4Cn

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) March 14, 2026

He enters the matchup averaging 24.3 points per game on 50.7% shooting from the field and has been very active offensively with 20+ field goal attempts in four of his last five starts.

With San Antonio likely to secure the first possession and Wembanyama serving as their primary offensive weapon, +400 odds make him one of the stronger first basket prop bets for this game.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.