NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 17: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Green +700 (Suns vs. Timberwolves)

Jalen Green offers strong value in the first basket market when the Phoenix Suns take on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Phoenix holds a clear edge in the opening tip, winning 69.1% of jump balls, compared to 47.1% for Minnesota. That advantage gives the Suns a strong chance to control the first possession and create the opening scoring opportunity.

Green has been aggressive offensively and is trending upward. He’s averaging 17.6 points per game on 40.7% shooting, but his recent form has been even better. He’s scored 21+ points in six straight games, showing confidence and consistency as a scorer.

JALEN JOHNSON TONIGHT:

24 POINTS
15 REBOUNDS
13 ASSISTS
10/19 FGM
37 MINUTES pic.twitter.com/I3mb5fTms9

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 17, 2026

He’s been attacking early and often, which is exactly what you want in a first basket prop. If Phoenix wins the tip, Green should be heavily involved in that first offensive set.

With strong recent form, increased scoring output, and the Suns likely to get the first possession, +700 odds present excellent value for a first basket bet in this matchup.

Victor Wembanyama +450 (Spurs vs. Kings)

Victor Wembanyama is once again a top option in the first basket market as the San Antonio Spurs meet the Sacramento Kings.

San Antonio has a massive advantage in the opening tip, winning 76.1% of jump balls, compared to 49.3% for Sacramento. That edge makes the Spurs one of the most reliable teams to secure the first possession.

If they control the tip, Wembanyama is the clear focal point to open the scoring. He’s been dominant offensively, averaging 24.3 points per game on 50.6% shooting, and continues to take on a heavy workload.

2nd team to reach 50 wins this season…@wemby and the @spurs! pic.twitter.com/SidZikOQz9

— NBA (@NBA) March 17, 2026

His recent form has been especially strong, scoring 27+ points in five of his last six starts, while also leading the team in field goal attempts. His ability to score from anywhere on the floor makes him an attractive option here.

With the Spurs likely to control the opening possession and Wembanyama in elite scoring form, +450 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.