NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 25: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Luka Doncic +550 (Lakers vs. Pacers)

Luka Dončić is a top-tier option in the first basket market as the Los Angeles Lakers face the Indiana Pacers.

The Lakers have a clear advantage in the opening tip, winning 63.9% of jump balls compared to 45.8% for Indiana, giving them a strong chance to control the first possession.

If Los Angeles gets the ball first, Dončić is the most likely player to take the opening shot. He’s been extremely active offensively and continues to carry a massive scoring load.

LUKA DONCIC DAGGER

UNREAL. 🔥🔥🔥

pic.twitter.com/kWLTUDIf8o

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 19, 2026

He leads the Lakers with 10 first baskets (16.9% of starts) and is averaging 33.4 points per game on 47.4% shooting. His volume is especially notable, Dončić has attempted 25+ field goals in seven straight games, including nearly 30 per game over his last three.

With elite usage, strong recent form, and the Lakers likely to get the first possession, +550 odds offer excellent value for a first basket prop bet.

Devin Vassell +600 (Pelicans vs. Knicks)

Devin Vassell presents strong value in the first basket market as the San Antonio Spurs take on the Memphis Grizzlies.

San Antonio is one of the most reliable teams in the league at the opening tip, largely due to Victor Wembanyama. With the Spurs expected to control the first possession, the opportunity to score first heavily leans their way.

While Wembanyama is the favorite, the value lies with Vassell at +600. He’s been effective in this market, recording 10 first baskets, second on the team.

Vassell is averaging 14.1 points per game on 43.8% shooting, and with De’Aaron Fox out of the lineup, there’s added opportunity for him to take on a larger offensive role, especially early in the game.

If the Spurs win the tip and look to their backcourt first, Vassell has a great chance to capitalize. At +600 odds, this is a high-value play worth targeting as one of the best NBA first scorer bets today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.