NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 27: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +475 (Bulls vs. Thunder)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a premium option in the first basket market as the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Chicago Bulls.

Oklahoma City has the advantage at the opening tip, winning 52.1% of jump balls, while Chicago has struggled heavily at just 36.1%. That gap gives the Thunder a strong edge to control the first possession.

If OKC gets the ball first, SGA is the clear go-to option. He’s one of the most aggressive and efficient scorers in the league and often sets the tone early.

Jokic gave SGA his flowers after he tied Wilt Chamberlain with 126 straight 20-point games 🤝 pic.twitter.com/TrHJjvS0p6

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) March 10, 2026

Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.5 points per game on an elite 55.7% shooting, and he’s been in excellent form recently, scoring 33+ points in five of his last eight games.

With the Thunder likely to get the first shot and SGA leading the offense, +475 odds offer strong value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

RJ Barrett +800 (Pelicans vs. Raptors)

RJ Barrett clears as a high-value option in the first basket market as the Toronto Raptors face the New Orleans Pelicans.

This play is largely driven by the jump ball mismatch. The Pelicans have been the worst team in the NBA at tip-offs, winning just 24.3%, while the Raptors, though not elite, sit at 40.3%. That gap gives Toronto a strong chance to control the opening possession.

If the Raptors get the first look, Barrett becomes a very appealing option at this price. He’s been efficient and active offensively, averaging 18.9 points per game on 49.3% shooting.

RJ BARRETT 😱

He skies in for the putback jam for the @Raptors!

Watch on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/yfgsSmxLTn pic.twitter.com/ySKmsjGiYB

— NBA (@NBA) November 3, 2025

His recent volume is also encouraging, with 15+ field goal attempts in five of his last seven games, showing he’s consistently involved in the offense and willing to attack early.

At +800 odds, this is a high-upside value bet. With Toronto likely to get the first possession and Barrett playing efficiently, he’s a strong candidate to open the scoring.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.