NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 7: Best First Point Scorer Bets

LeBron James +550 (Thunder vs. Lakers)

For tonight’s NBA first basket prop bets, LeBron James stands out as a strong value play as the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Oklahoma City Thunder at +550 odds.

The Lakers enter this matchup with a clear edge in the jump ball department, winning 64.1% of tip-offs compared to 51.3% for OKC. That advantage gives Los Angeles a strong chance to control the opening possession and generate the first scoring opportunity.

With both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves out of the lineup, James becomes the unquestioned focal point of the offense. His usage rate is expected to spike, especially early in the game when teams often look to their primary scorer.

41-year-old LeBron James just had FOUR dunks in the first half.

Father Time is not real for this man…pic.twitter.com/llAlbRaq2l

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) March 19, 2026

James is averaging 20.8 points per game on 51.2% shooting, showing strong efficiency despite sharing touches for most of the season. In the Lakers’ most recent outing, he led the team with 22 field goal attempts, signaling a more aggressive scoring role with the starting lineup injured.

Given the Lakers’ likely control of the opening possession and James’ increased offensive responsibility, +550 odds provide excellent value. He’s a smart, high-upside option to score the first basket in this matchup.

Devin Booker +480 (Rockets vs. Suns)

Devin Booker is also a strong and reliable pick to score the first points as the Phoenix Suns face the Houston Rockets at +480 odds.

Phoenix holds a massive edge in the opening tip, winning 69.2% of jump balls compared to just 37.2% for Houston, one of the lowest marks in the league. That advantage puts the Suns in a prime position to control the first possession and get the opening shot.

Devin Booker in today's road win:

30 PTS
4 AST
3 3PM

Midrange ✅
Threes ✅ pic.twitter.com/W0NloQeELP

— NBA (@NBA) April 5, 2026

If Phoenix gets that first look, Booker is the most likely player to capitalize. He leads the team in both scoring and first basket conversions, making him the focal point of the offense, especially early in games.

Booker is averaging 25.8 points per game this season and has been particularly aggressive lately, attempting 22+ field goals in three of his last four starts. That increased volume highlights his intent to attack and take over offensively.

With elite jump ball positioning and Booker’s high usage and scoring ability, +480 odds offer solid value. He’s one of the safest and most logical picks to score the first basket in this matchup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.