The next Pope odds show that there are plenty of candidates who could replace Pope Francis. The last Pope passed away after serious health problems, which means Vatican City is looking to put a succession plan in place.
I’ll examine the next Pope odds and give you my pick for whom it’ll be, along with the number of conclave ballots it’ll take to elect the next Pope.
Next Pope and Conclave Ballot Predictions
| NEXT POPE OPTION | PREDICTION AND ODDS |
|---|---|
| Next Pope | Pietro Parolin (+150) |
| Number of Conclave Ballots | 9-10 (+350) |
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How Is the Next Pope Chosen?
There is a process for how the next Pope is chosen. A new Pope is needed when the Pope in place either resigns or dies. The College of Cardinals then meets at the Sistine Chapel to decide and vote on whom they believe the successor should be.
On February 24, 2025, the Pope was in critical condition with early, “mild” kidney failure. After multiple complications in the next couple of months, he unfortunately passed away at the age of 88. Francis was elected Pope on March 13, 2013.
The cardinals have four rounds of voting, and the winning candidate requires two-thirds of the vote. Voters must be under 80 years old. The ballots are burned to create the famous “white smoke” that is dispersed when the new Pope is decided.
The College of Cardinals encapsulates all cardinals. Currently, there are 252, and 138 are eligible to vote for the next Pope. The Council of Cardinals is a group of nine that serve as the Pope’s main advisors.
Next Pope Odds, Candidates, and Prediction
| PERSON | NEXT POPE ODDS |
|---|---|
| Luis Antonio Tagle | +150 |
| Pietro Parolin | +150 |
| Peter Turkson | +400 |
| Matteo Zupi | +600 |
| Peter Erdo | +600 |
| Wilton Daniel Gregory | +700 |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | +800 |
| Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | +800 |
| Jean-Marc Aveline | +1200 |
| Francis Arinze | +1200 |
| Kevin Farrell | +1400 |
| Robert Prevost | +1400 |
| Mario Grech | +2000 |
| Raymond Leo Burke | +2000 |
| Mark Ouellet | +2000 |
| Charles Maung Bo | +2000 |
| Mykola Bychok | +2000 |
| Reihard Marx | +2000 |
| Fernando Chomali Garib | +2000 |
| Cristobal Lopez Romero | +2000 |
| Angelo Scola | +2000 |
There are a lot of good next Pope candidates to choose from. Let’s take a look at the top three options.
Luis Antonio Tagle (+150)
Tagle is now a co-favorite in these next Pope odds after being at EVEN odds on April 21, and would be the first Filipino Pope if he were to be elected. At +150 odds, the 67-year-old has an implied win probability of 40%, which is down from 50% just ten days ago. Similar to Pope Francis, Tagle leans more on the liberal side of the ledger, which would follow the views of the previous Pope.
Tagle was promoted to the College of Cardinals in October 2012, under Pope Benedict XVI. He was also named Cardinal-Bishop in May 2020. He hasn’t had many issues since becoming a cardinal, other than differences with more conservative colleagues. But Tagle’s youth might give him an edge in the race in the next Pope odds.
Pietro Parolin (+150)
Parolin is the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, and is the highest-ranking cardinal who can vote in the conclave. He has been a cardinal since 2014, and prior to being Secretary of State, Parolin worked for 30 years with the Holy See, which is the governing body of the Catholic Church.
He has helped Vatican relations with China and Mexico. Parolin is also a member of the Council of Cardinals, which isn’t to be confused with the College of Cardinals.
It is said that Parolin, 70, is more central and doesn’t lean left or right. However, he has spoken out about Russian invasion of Ukraine, and claimed that, “there s a right to armed defense in the case of aggression”, speaking about anyone giving Ukraine weapons.
He was a favorite of Pope Francis, but that could go either way for him. Also, at 70, Parolin is relatively young for a Pope. He hails from Veneto, Italy, which is about 560 kilometers from Vatican City.
Peter Turkson (+400)
Turkson hails from Ghana, and the 78-year-old was in the running to be the next Pope before Francis was elected in 2013. He would be the first African Pope in over 1,500 years if he were to be elected!
Turkson has mostly conservative views, but he has been known to be open to more liberal points of view. For example, he was opposed to criminalizing homosexuality in Africa, and said “it should not be treated as an offence”.
The Ghanian is well respected on both sides of the political and theological ledger, which could serve him well if the votes happen to be split between Tagle and Parolin. He was thought to be the favorite in 2013, so this is probably Turkson’s last chance to be named the Pope!
Next Pope Prediction
There are many other solid candidates in the next Pope odds, but I believe that Pietro Parolin at +150 is the most likely option! He is well-liked by cardinals on both sides and prefers to use common sense to make decisions.
He has also been involved in the papacy for years and knows how everything works. At 70, Parolin is fairly young for the position. He checks a lot of boxes, and the odds are great, so I recommend Pietro Parolin.
Number of Conclave Ballots
| NUMBER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| 1-2 | +1200 |
| 3-4 | +200 |
| 5-6 | +150 |
| 7-8 | +150 |
| 9-10 | +350 |
| More than 10 | +500 |
A conclave ballot is when the Cardinals vote on a new Pope, so each ballot equals one vote for context in this next Pope betting market.
The longest conclave was almost three years, back in 1268. More recently, it took five ballots to elect Pope Francis in 2013, four ballots to elect Pope Benedict XVI in 2005, and eight ballots to select Pope John Paul II in 1978.
Due to the amount of candidates for this conclave, I would lean closer to ten, and I’m going to take between 9-10 ballots at +350! There is one ballot on the first day, and then four votes a day until a new Pope is selected. While between 9-10 ballots sounds like a lot, that would really be only 2-3 days.
Where to Bet on Next Pope Odds?
My next Pope predictions for the successor, what papal name will be used, and what continent they’re from, are as follows:
- Pietro Parolin (+150)
- 9-10 Ballots (+350)
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