Preakness Stakes 2025 Odds: Will Journalism Strike Back at Pimlico?

Journalism (+120)

As the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, Journalism was the most heavily bet horse at Churchill Downs. He was the 3/1 morning favorite and closed at roughly +200 before the starting gate opened.

However, Journalism left his backers disappointed with a 2nd place finish just behind Sovereignty. He and Sovereignty went down to the wire, but Journalism fell short by 1 ½ lengths.

It ended a four-race winning streak for Michael McCarthy’s Journalism, who hadn’t lost since his debut in October 2024. Journalism was coming off a big score in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1).

In his Grade 1 debut, Journalism edged out Baeza for the win at Santa Anita Park. As well as the Santa Anita Derby, the horse has wins in the San Felipe Stakes (Gr. 2) and Los Alamitos Futurity (Gr. 2).

The 101-speed figure in the Derby was his slowest since debuting. He was clocked at a minimum of 105 in four events leading up to the Kentucky Derby.

SOVEREIGNTY RULES THE 151st KENTUCKY DERBY! 🌹 #KyDerby pic.twitter.com/WfLBrG4Zv4

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) May 3, 2025

The traffic and muddy track prevented Journalism from reaching his peak speed ratings. Despite the loss, it was still a strong run from Journalism that didn’t take anything away from him or his chances in the Preakness.

However, Journalism won’t have to be concerned with traffic in this smaller field in the Preakness. Light rain is in the forecast for Saturday, but it shouldn’t be detrimental. Look for Journalism to be the horse to beat, so I expect his Preakness odds to shorten by post time!

Sandman (+350)

Mark Casse’s Sandman was a popular pick to win the Derby, but he disappointed in the race by finishing 7th with a speed figure of just 86 at Churchill Downs. As I mentioned in my Kentucky Derby preview, Sandman is the type of horse that runs when he wants to.

If Sandman wakes up in the morning and doesn’t want to run, expect another 86-speed figure or thereabouts. However, if Sandman wants to win, he can be right there with Journalism in the stretch.

Overall, Sandman has won three of nine races in his career. His biggest win was in the Arkansas Derby (Gr. 1) on March 29. He won the $1 million race by 2 ½ lengths over Publisher at Oaklawn Park.

Sandman (7/2) turns it on down the stretch to take the victory in the Arkansas Derby! 💨 pic.twitter.com/odK78GVIyQ

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) March 30, 2025

Before the Arkansas Derby, Sandman came up short in the Southwest Stakes (Gr. 3) in 2nd and 3rd in the Rebel Stakes (Gr. 2). In his first Grade 1 start, Sandman turned it up several notches to clear late after failing to win a Grade 3 and Grade 2 event.

Sandman’s speed figures had improved in five consecutive races. He topped off at 104 in the Arkansas Derby before regressing to 86 in the Derby. Which Sandman shows up at Pimlico?

That’s a tough one to answer, so I’m going to toss Sandman for my 2025 Preakness Stakes picks.

Goal Oriented (+500)

Baffert didn’t get the return to Churchill Downs that he was looking for in the Kentucky Derby. After a three-year ban, Baffert was back at the Derby, but didn’t get the results he was looking for in the 151st running.

He will point a new horse to the Preakness with Goal Oriented. Baffert leads all trainers with eight victories at the Preakness Stakes. He has a reasonable chance of winning again with Goal Oriented in the starting gate.

The horse was purchased at auction for $425,000 in September 2023. This isn’t the most expensive or esteemed horse that Baffert has trained before, but he could impress in his graded debut! Goal Oriented only has two starts on his resume, which were a maiden special weight and allowance optional claiming.

Goal Oriented wins the Pleasant Colony presented by GE Appliances! Flavien Prat was aboard for trainer Bob Baffert. pic.twitter.com/HFr5nSfHST

— Churchill Downs (@ChurchillDowns) May 3, 2025

The three-year-old colt won in his debut by 3 ¼ lengths over Train the Trainer in a $65,000 race at Santa Anita. He followed up most recently with a ¾ length win at Churchill Downs in a $127,000 event on May 3. Goal Oriented posted a promising speed reading of 109 in the win.

The Preakness Stakes is a huge step-up in class for Goal Oriented, but the talent is there. Look for Goal Oriented to show in the top 3, but he has his work cut out for him against Journalism.

1. American Promise (+1400)

American Promise saw money come in on him for the Kentucky Derby. However, D. Wayne Lukas’ colt was a big disappointment and finished 16th in the race.

I will give American Promise the benefit of the doubt, though. He was bumped in the early stages of the race and wasn’t able to recover. Jockey Nik Juarez couldn’t get him back in contention after the bump and got lost in traffic.

The $750,000 horse should put together a much stronger performance in the Preakness Stakes. Prior to the Derby, American Promise won the Virginia Derby by 7 ¾ lengths in a blowout. If he can get a similar trip, expect American Promise to be in top contention!

2. Gosger (+2000)

Can Gosger shock the field and win the Preakness Stakes? I think there’s going to be a chance for Brendan Walsh’s colt to get involved in the stretch win. He’s shown nothing but improvement through the first three races of his career.

Gosger has finished 1st, 1st, and 2nd to open his career. Most promising, his speed figure has improved from 80 to 94 to 96. In his latest performance, he captured the Lexington Stakes (Gr. 2) by two lengths over Bracket Buster at Keeneland.

Gosger did everything right to win the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes! pic.twitter.com/NrW64hunjN

— Kyle Roscoe (@APRoscoeK) April 12, 2025

I have Gosger pegged closer to an 8/1 horse, so at +2000, you really have to consider a play on him for your 2025 Preakness Stakes best bets!