2023 Strade Bianche Odds and Predictions

2023 Strade Bianche Predictions And Odds

On Saturday, March 4, the sport of cycling makes its way to Tuscany, Italy, for what some hail as the “sixth monument” – Strade Bianche.

The UCI men’s World Tour will compete in this one-day classic for points, prestige and a highly sought after victory. We’ll be examining this unofficial monument race and make our cycling predictions on who will win the 17th edition of Strade Bianche.

2023 Strade Bianche Betting Odds

Strade Bianche odds are limited, so make sure you choose a reputable cycling sportsbook. For our betting guide to this Italian classic, we’ll be using Bovada

The oddsmakers have confidently inserted Mathieu van der Poel as the favorite in Tuscany. He’s ahead of other contenders like Tom Pidcock and Julian Alaphilippe.

The Dutchman won this event back in 20211, and is currently in good form heading into Italy. He won’t have to worry about two of his biggest foes, Tadej Pogacar and Wout van Aert, as both are absent from this race.

Julian Alaphilippe enters this weekend with plenty of confidence following a win at the Faun-Aredeche Classic in his home country2. The 30-year-old offers solid value as he’s one of the best Classics’ riders in the field.  

Mathieu van der Poel+150
Tom Pidcock+550
Julian Alaphilippe+600
Tim Wellens+1400
Kasper Asgreen+1800
Pello Bilbao+1800
Tiesj Benoot+2000
Matej Mohoric+2200
Quinn Simmons+2200
Valentin Madouas+2200
Alexander Vlasov+2500
Attila Valter+3300
Benoit Cosnefroy+3300
Mauri Vansevenant+3300
Jan Tratnik+4000
Magnus Sheffield+4000
Simon Clarke+4000
Alberto Bettiol+5000
Alexey Lutsenko+5000
100% Up To $1000 With BV1000

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2023 Strade Bianche Date and Details

2023 Strade Bianche is scheduled to start and end this Saturday, March 4 in Siena. The unique route, which includes gravel roads, runs through difficult climbs across the beautiful landscape of Tuscany.

The picturesque countryside of Tuscany provides an unmatched experience for riders and fans. Ten years after the first professional edition of this race, Strade Bianche was added as a World Tour event in 20173.

Tadej Pogacar, of UAE Team Emirates, won this race last year4. Unfortunately, one of the sport’s best cyclists won’t be crossing the finish line in Siena this weekend. Pogacar declined to defend his title, and opted to race at Paris-Nice instead5.

Also absent from the 2023 Strade Bianche odds is Wout van Aert. The longtime rival of van der Poel is out of the event after developing an illness during altitude training6. Wout has not made his season debut yet. However, that could change next week at Tirreno-Adriatico7.

The weather is not going to have an impact on Saturday’s race. The temperature is expected to reach a high of 13 degrees Celsius (55 degrees Fahrenheit), with winds gusting to the northeast at 8 km/h8.

2023 Strade Bianche Route

The Strade Bianche route will cover 184 km in Siena this year. There are 11 gravel sections that comprise 63 km of the route. The longest gravel section is 11.9km followed by an 11.5km section9.

Expect the 11.5km section through Monte Sante Marie to be one of the most daunting challenges during the 2023 Strade Bianche race. Along with the unsettled gravel, the peloton must traverse uphill.

This section combined with the climb up Via Santa Caterina, which has a max gradient of 18%10, should separate the contenders from the pretenders on Saturday.

Past Winners at Strade Bianche

Three of the previous five recent winners have entered the race on Saturday. Michal Kwiatkowski and Fabian Cancellara are the only repeat winners of the event. Kwiatkowski has two Strade Bianche titles in 2014 and 2017. Cancellara is the only three-time winner, with victories in 2008, 2012, and 201611.

2022Tadej Pogacar
2021Mathieu van der Poel
2020Wout van Aert
2019Julian Alaphilippe
2018Tiesj Benoot
2017Michal Kwiatkowski
2016Fabian Cancellara
2015Zdenek Stybar
2014Michal Kwiatkowski
2013Moreno Moser
2012Fabian Cancellara
2011Philippe Gilbert
2010Maxim Iglinskiy
2009Thomas Lovkvist
2008Fabian Cancellara
2007Alexandr Kolobnev

2023 Strade Bianche Predictions

With Pogacar and Wout Van Aert absent from the 2023 Strade Bianche field, there is less competition for guys like van der Poel, Pidcock and Alaphilippe. Let’s take a look at who we have pegged as the top longshot, best value bet, and the race winner.

Top Strade Bianche Longshot

Quinn Simmons (+2200)

An American has never won at Strade Bianche since its debut in 2007. Quinn Simmons has a chance to be the first to stand on the top of the podium in Tuscany.

We are giving him a better than +2200 chance of pulling off a stunning upset on Saturday. The 21-year-old has a bright future and might expedite his standing as a top cyclist with a win at 2023 Strade Bianche this weekend.

Simmons likes to take to the gravel, so this route should suit his bike skills. In his European season debut last week, Simmons impressed in the 191.5 km La Drome Classic. Quinn finished 5th in the one-day race in France12.

His effort comes eight attempts after winning the third stage at Vuelta a San Juan on January 2413. Simmons kicked free of the field late with an unexpected sprint.

He ultimately finished in the Top 10 in the seven-stage event in San Juan14. This was a positive result that Simmons can build on in 2023.

Trek-Segafredo has to feel confident with where Simmons is heading. The best is yet to come for this youngster.

Simmons might need to catch a break to win this weekend, but he has the skills to be close at the end. The rising star is an appealing longshot at +2200.

The Bet

The Best Strade Bianche Betting Value

Julian Alaphilippe (+600)

It’s hard to look away from Julian Alaphilippe in Tuscany even though he’s coming off a down year in 2022.

After winning the UCI World Championships in 2021, Alaphilippe regressed, especially towards the end of 2022. Alaphilippe’s best finish through his last ten races of 2022 was 51st15.

His 2022 campaign could have been better, but Alaphilippe has gotten off to a strong start in 2023. The French superstar struck on February 25 at the Faun-Ardeche Classic.

Alaphilippe beat David Gaudu in a two-man sprint, after pulling away on the climb at Saint-Romain-de-Lerps16. He needed that win to get his confidence back early this season.

The veteran is no stranger to riding well at Strade Bianche. He won this race back in 2019 and was the runner-up behind Mathieu van der Poel two years ago17.

Alaphilippe has the confidence, strong legs early in the year, and his Strade Bianche betting odds present a nice value spot at +600.

The Bet

The 2023 Strade Bianche Winner

Mathieu van der Poel (+150)

Mathieu van der Poel is not only the clear betting favorite, but he’s also the best cycling pick to win this race. Not only is MVDP one of the best one-day riders in the sport, but he will be competing on Saturday without Tadej Pogacar and Wout Van Aert.

His 2021 Strade Bianche victory featured a late attack where he beat out Alaphilippe for the win. We could see another dual between these two this weekend as well.

Van der Poel won three of his final five road races of the 2022 season. He captured the Stadsprijs Geraardsbergan, Izegem Koers, and the Grand Prix de Walloine in Belgium18. Although this is his first road race of 2023, MVDP seems to be in good form and good health.

Take the Dutch superstar to bring home the victory in Italy this Saturday and enjoy a +150 return on your wager.

The Bet


  1. Mathieu van der Poel wins Starde Bianche | Cyclingnews. Retrieved From “https://www.cyclingnews.com/races/strade-bianche-2021/elite-men/results/

  2. Julian Alaphilippe wins Faun-Aredeche Classic | Cyclingnews. Retrieved From “https://www.cyclingnews.com/races/faun-ardeche-classic-2023/elite-men/results/

  3. Strade Bianche, Abu Dhabi part of 2017 WorldTour | Cyclingnews. Retrieved From “https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/strade-bianche-abu-dhabi-part-of-2017-worldtour-news-shorts/

  4. Tadej Pogacar wins Strade Bianche with 50km solo attack | Cyclingnews. Retrieve From “https://www.cyclingnews.com/races/strade-bianche-2022/elite-men/results/

  5. Tadej Pogacar skips Strade Bianche defense, focuses on Paris-Nice showdown with Jonas Vingegaard | VeloNews. Retrieved From “https://www.velonews.com/news/road/tadej-pogacar-skips-strade-bianche-defense-focuses-on-paris-nice-showdown-with-jonas-vingegaard/

  6. Wout van Aert out of Strade Bianche after illness disrupts training | Cyclingnews. Retrieved From “https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/wout-van-aert-out-of-strade-bianche-after-illness-disrupts-training/

  7. Wout van Aert out of Strade Bianche after illness disrupts training | Cyclingnews. Retrieved From “https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/wout-van-aert-out-of-strade-bianche-after-illness-disrupts-training/

  8. Siena, Italy Weekend Weather Forecast – The Weather Network. Retrieved From “https://www.theweathernetwork.com/it/weekend-weather-forecast/toscana/siena

  9. Strade Bianche 2023: Route map, start list, TV Coverage | Cyclist. Retrieved From “https://www.cyclist.co.uk/in-depth/strade-bianche-all-you-need-to-know

  10. Strade Bianche 2023: Route map, start list, TV Coverage | Cyclist. Retrieved From “https://www.cyclist.co.uk/in-depth/strade-bianche-all-you-need-to-know

  11. List of Strade Bianche winners | Sport histoire. Retrieved From “https://www.sport-histoire.fr/en/Sport/Cycling/Classification/Strade_Bianche.php

  12. Quinn Simmons | World Cycling Stats. Retrieved From “https://www.worldcyclingstats.com/en/rider/quinn-simmons

  13. Vuelta a San Juan S3: Quinn Simmons surprises the sprinters | VeloNews. Retrieved From “https://www.velonews.com/race-results/vuelta-a-san-juan-s3-quinn-simmons-surprises-the-sprinters/

  14. Quinn Simmons | World Cycling Stats. Retrieved From “https://www.worldcyclingstats.com/en/rider/quinn-simmons

  15. Julian Alaphilippe | World Cycling Stats. Retrieved From “https://www.worldcyclingstats.com/en/rider/julian-alaphilippe/2022/overview

  16. Julian Alaphilippe wins Faun-Aredeche Classic | Cyclingnews. Retrieved From “https://www.cyclingnews.com/races/faun-ardeche-classic-2023/elite-men/results/

  17. List of Strade Bianche winners | Sport histoire. Retrieved From “https://www.sport-histoire.fr/en/Sport/Cycling/Classification/Strade_Bianche.php

  18. Mathieu van der Poel | Pro Cycling Stats. Retrieved From “https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/mathieu-van-der-poel

About the Author
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Rick Rockwell
Sports/Casino Writer
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Rick has been a professional writer for over 14 years with an extensive resume spanning projects and clients from around the world. But, his passions have always been sports and sports betting. Whether it’s being a credentialed media member to major sporting events, climbing into a racecar or a pro wrestling ring, Rick’s sports and sports betting knowledge, passion and versatility is on display with each article he writes for TSG.

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