UFC 316 Odds and Predictions – Can O’Malley Regain His Belt?

Dvalishvili (19-4) absolutely ran through O’Malley (18-2, 1 NC) in September 2024 to take the 135-pound belt. His first title defense in January 2025 was a much tougher fight against Umar Nurmagomedov, who probably won the first two rounds. However, “The Machine” used his incredible wrestling and cardio to wear down Nurmagomedov, taking him down seven times out of 30 attempts.

O’Malley hasn’t fought since losing the belt, and if he knows better, he’ll have to improve his takedown defense. Dvalishvili took him down six times in 15 attempts in that fight, but it seemed like more. O’Malley is one of the best bantamweight strikers in history, but he couldn’t use his striking while trying to keep Dvalishvili off him. O’Malley was outstruck 214-49 at UFC Noche, which shows how dominant The Georgian was.

I just can’t see the rematch going any other way, than how the first fight went. Unless O’Malley turned into Jose Aldo, who stuffed Dvalishvili in all 16 of his takedown attempts in August 2022, the champ is going to try to take him down. If he fails the first time, another attempt is coming right behind it.

O’Malley might do better in this fight, but I’m giving the nod to Dvalishvili, although not at -275.  I’m going to take a UFC 316 betting prop and go with Dvalishvili by points, which is priced at -165. It’s still not a great return, but it’s better than wagering on the outright outcome.

• Joe Pyfer (-400)
• Kelvin Gastelum (+300)

Pyfer (13-3) has won six of his last seven since suffering an elbow injury in August 2020. All of his wins have come via finish, including five TKO/KO victories. “Bodybagz” is a powerful individual at 185 points, which is his biggest advantage. Pyfer knocked out Marc-Andre Barriault in June 2024 and is searching for a spot in the top 15 of the UFC rankings in his weight class.

Gastelum (19-1, 1 NC) has fought the best of the best of middleweight, including a classic against Israel Adesanya for the interim title in April 2019. He is on a skid right now as Gastelum is 3-6 in his last nine fights, but his chin is still holding up. He won a unanimous decision over Daniel Rodriguez in June 2024. This fight was supposed to happen in March 2025, but Pyfer got sick the day before the fight.

Joe Pyfer considers Kelvin Gastelum fight ‘one of them layups,’ stands by Mexico insults #UFC316 https://t.co/w5TexLxocV

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) May 29, 2025

Due to his striking power, Pyfer is a considerable favorite in these UFC 316 odds, and there is certainly a world in which he wins this fight in the first round. But Gastelum has only been knocked down in the Adesanya fight, and that’s it. The longer this fight goes, the more doubt might creep into Pyfer’s head. Gastelum also doesn’t use it that much, but he can grapple and try to take this to the mat.

I’m going to lean on the veteran’s guile to weather an early storm, grind out a decision win and take Kelvin Gastelum at +300 here!

• Patchy Mix (-185)
• Mario Bautista (+160)

Mix (20-1) is making his UFC debut, and he will go down as the last bantamweight champion in that promotion before it was purchased by the Professional Fighters League. The New York native is a grappling ace, winning 13 times by submission, but Mix is a solid striker as well.

Bautista (15-2) is no slouch, and is ranked 10^th in the UFC bantamweight rankings. He is also known for his submission game, and is coming off a controversial split-decision win over Jose Aldo. Bautista couldn’t take Aldo to the mat in ten tries, but did just enough on the feet to sway the judges.

It’s not going to be an easy welcome to the UFC for Mix, but I do like him in this spot at -185. But I like him even more at an inside-distance bet at +210! I think he’s a slightly better striker than Bautista, and more accomplished on the mat.

You caI’m taking him at +210 to win inside distance at Bovada. Snatch it up in your UFC 316 odds!

• Kevin Holland (-280)
• Vicente Luque (+230)

Holland (27-13, 1 NC) loves to keep busy, and this will already be his third fight of 2025! He is 1-1 in those fights, as Holland was submitted by Reinier de Ridder in January. He bounced back to beat Gunnar Nelson by unanimous decision in March.

Holland is a well-rounded fighter who loves to talk to his opponents during fights, but his concentration can sometimes wander, and that’s how he gets caught.

Luque (23-10-1) had lost three of his last four before submitted Themba Gorimbo in December 2024, and like Holland,  is a versatile warrior. The Brazilian-American is also a good wrestler, and Holland has shown that his takedown defense can be shaky at times.

This has a chance to be “Fight of the Night” on this card, as Holland and Luque are veterans that like to put on a show. If Holland fights at his best, he should win this welterweight tilt. However, he’s been known to switch off at times, while Luque keeps coming at you. It’s also a hometown fight for Luque, who was born and raised in Westwood, New Jersey, although he now fights out of Brazil.

I’m taking Luque at +230 to persist and pick up a win over the entertaining Holland.