UFC 317 Odds and Predictions – Can Topuria Become a Two-Division Champion?

• Ilia Topuria (-450)
• Charles Oliveira (+335)

Topuria (16-0) is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but it is his striking that has vaulted him up the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. “El Matador” knocked out Alexander Volkanovski to win the featherweight title in February 2024. He then became the first person to knock out Max Holloway in October 2024.

Topuria vacated the featherweight belt to move up to lightweight, where Islam Makhachev gave up his title to move up to welterweight. He is looking to become the tenth two-division champion in UFC history. The Georgian/Spanish fighter wants to eventually move up to 170 pounds, and become a three-division champion. But he can’t overlook Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC), a former lightweight champion that holds the record for UFC submissions with 16.

Oliveira will want to take this fight to the mat, while Topuria hasn’t faced anyone who has tried to take him down since beating Bryce Mitchell in December 2022. Topuria has a 93% success rate on takedown defense. He has also noted that “Do Bronx” walks forward, and Topuria is predicting a first-round knockout or submission. I would lean towards a knockout, and if not the first round, within the first three rounds. Topuria’s power at featherweight will transfer to 155 pounds, and he’s right about Oliveira’s willingness to take damage.

I wouldn’t bet on Topuria at -450 as the return on those UFC 317 odds are miniscule. But wait until later in the week, when there is a prop for Topuria inside distance. That’ll be the play to make on Saturday night!

• Alexandre Pantoja (-270)
• Kai Kara-France (+230)

Pantoja (29-5) is making his fourth title defense since taking the flyweight belt from Brandon Moreno in July 2023. He can win in many ways, but “The Cannibal” has won three of his last six fights by submission. Pantoja recently made Kai Asakura tap out with a rear-naked choke in December 2024.

Kara-France (25-11, 1 NC) lost two in a row, but a TKO win over Steve Erceg in August 2024 earned him his second title shot. “Don’t Blink” lost to Moreno for the interim belt in July 2022, then suffered a knee injury. His loss to Amir Albazi in June 2023 was a controversial split decision that many felt Kara-France won (myself included).

These two fought back on The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions, in 2016. Pantoja won by unanimous decision, and he is a much better fighter now. Kara-France does have knockout power, but he can get reckless, and the champ is smart enough to catch him.

I’m going to wait on Pantoja inside distance, as I think Kara-France will make a mistake and Pantoja will pounce. For now, I’ll recommend the champion at -260 in my UFC 317 predictions!

• Joshua Van (-115)
• Brandon Royval (-105)

There is another intriguing flyweight bout on the card on Saturday as Van (14-2) is a slight favorite over Royval (17-7), who is the #1 contender to Pantoja. Van is ranked 11^th in the 125-pound rankings, which means Royval has a lot to lose here. You’d have to think he’ll be in line for a title shot if he manages to get past Van, who will shoot up the rankings with a victory.

I find it interesting as Royval is a small underdog in this fight, given his experience against top-tier talent. Royval is 0-2 against Pantoja, 1-1 against Moreno, and 1-0 over Kara-France. It’s not a perfect record, but “Raw Dawg” knows what it takes to compete in these types of matches.

This is, by far, the biggest match of Van’s career, and he’s never fought someone of Royval’s caliber. It should also be noted that Van took this fight on short notice as Royval’s initial opponent, Manel Kape, broke his foot. It seems Van is being rewarded for his willingness to fight as “The Fearless” fought four times in 2024. This will already be Van’s third fight of 2025!

Van has decent takedown defense with an 81% success rate. But it’ll be tested against Royval, who can also handle his own standing up. Royval is a more well-rounded fighter, and I’m giving him the edge as the -108 underdog in my UFC 317 predictions!

• Renato Moicano (-122)
• Beneil Dariush (+102)

Finally, I’ll take a look at this lightweight clash in which Dariush (22-5-1) is ranked ninth at 155 pounds, while Moicano (20-6-1) is tenth. Dariush has lost two in a row, although they were against #1-ranked Arman Tsarukyan and Oliveira in 2023. The two were supposed to meet at UFC 311 in January 2025, but Moicano was drafted to replace Tsarukyan on short notice in a title fight against Makhachev. To no one’s surprise, Moicano was extremely overmatched and was submitted by the champ in the first round.

Both are outstanding grapplers, but Dariush is a much better striker. Dariush is coming off two losses, but they’ve both been against the top two fighters remaining at 155 pounds (outside of Topuria). Moicano doesn’t really have knockout power, and I think Dariush can negate his grappling advantage. At plus money, like Dariush to come away with the victory as one of my UFC 317 best bets at a price of +102!