UFC 326 Odds and Predictions: Who Leaves Las Vegas with the “BMF” Belt?

• Max Holloway (-218)
• Charles Oliveira (+180)

Holloway (27-8) won the BMF title over Justin Gaethje in an April 2024 classic, and defended it against Dustin Poirier in July 2025 in Poirier’s retirement match. He was knocked out by then-featherweight champ Ilia Topuria in October 2024 before Topuria moved up to win the lightweight belt. But Holloway, a former featherweight champion, is already a UFC legend and future Hall of Famer, and is one of the greatest strikers in the history of the organization.

Oliveira (36-11, 1 NC) is a former lightweight champion whose career hasn’t been as good as it should be. He was stripped of the 155-pound belt for missing weight before a fight against Gaethje, which Oliveira won. He has also lost two matches for a vacant belt, albeit against all-time greats Islam Makhachev and Topuria. “Do Bronx” has the most submission wins in UFC history with 17 and is also a good striker, but Oliveira has been stopped nine times (five by KO, four by submission).

The two fought in August 2015, but it lasted just 1:39 as Oliveira suffered a neck injury. There’s not much you can take from that match, but I know Holloway is more durable. “Blessed” also has some of the best takedown defense in the UFC. Oliveira has the upper hand if the fight goes to the mat, but I think Holloway keeps it standing. If Oliveira points down at the center of the cage and wants to trade with Holloway, he’s in big trouble.

Max Holloway is going in my UFC 326 betting predictions, but I’ll also recommend that you check the UFC 326 odds later in the week. I think a Holloway Inside Distance win is well in play.

• Caio Borralho (-280)
• Reiner de Ridder (+225)

Borralho (17-2, 1 NC) had a 17-fight unbeaten streak (there was a no-contest from June 2018 in there) snapped in September 2025 when he lost to Nassourdine Imavov. “The Natural” was outclassed by Imamov, who might be next in line for a title fight against champion Khazmat Chimaev. The Brazilian is a balanced fighter with nine finishes (five KOs and four submissions), but he can also grind you down with eight wins by unanimous decision.

De Ridder (21-3) is much more of a submission specialist with 13 wins by tapout, and he had a five-fight win streak snapped by Brendan Allen in October 2025. I worry about the durability of “The Dutch Knight” as all three of his losses have come via stoppage. He has also lost twice by being unable to continue, including against Allen. He looked great against Bo Nickal and Robert Whittaker, but de Ridder has shown he can be beaten into submission.

I’m leaning towards Borralho in my UFC 326 betting picks, simply for that reason. The Dutchman is an excellent grappler, but Borralho can handle himself on the mat. But if he keeps the fight standing, Borralho can knock de Ridder out. Again, I’m waiting on Fight Method odds later this week for a Borralho Inside Distance, but I’ll take “The Natural” at -275 for now.

• Michael Johnson (-130)
• Drew Dober (+110)

An intriguing fight from the lightweight division caps off our look at the UFC 326 odds. Johnson (24-19) has won three in a row after a tough stretch where he lost six of eight by various methods. But “The Menace” has knockout power if he catches his opponent, as Johnson has won ten fights by TKO/KO.

Dober (28-15, 1 NC) has lost four of his last six, but like Johnson, he can end a fight quickly. The Nebraska native has won 15 fights by knockout, and he fights to give the crowd a show, which can be to his detriment. Only one of his last nine fights has gone to the scorecards. One way or another, it’s going to be a fun fight.

I’m going with Michael Johnson at -130 in my UFC 326 betting picks here, as I think he’s strategic enough to avoid Dober’s best shots, and land a few of his own. I actually think Johnson should be closer to -150 or -160 here, so this is a solid price for the St. Louis native.