2023 MLB World Series Betting Odds and Predictions

2023 World Series

On Friday, October 27, the first pitch of the 2023 World Series will be thrown at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers advanced to the World Series after shocking Game 7 wins in the League Championship Series. We are breaking down the latest 2023 World Series odds and making our final World Series predictions.

Neither the Diamondbacks nor Rangers were popular picks at the best World Series betting sites heading into the postseason. The highly-rated Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Houston Astros were all denied a spot in the Fall Classic.

The Diamondbacks have one World Series title in their trophy case in Phoenix, Arizona. In 2001, they became the fastest expansion MLB franchise to win a World Series, following their formation in 1998. Luis Gonzalez’s 9th-inning single off the New York Yankees’ Mariano Rivera stands as the most memorable moment in the club’s 25-year history.

Established in 1961, and playing in Arlington since 1973, the Rangers won the AL Pennant in 2010 and 2011. However, they are one of six MLB clubs that have never won the World Series.

Let’s dive into the latest 2023 World Series odds and our best Diamondbacks vs. Rangers predictions.

2023 MLB World Series Odds

The following 2023 World Series betting odds are courtesy of BetUS:

TEAMODDS
Texas Rangers-180
Arizona Diamondbacks+150

According to BetUS’s latest 2023 World Series odds, the Rangers are the clear favorites to win their first MLB title. At -180 odds, they have an implied probability of winning the World Series of 64.3 percent.

It was an unlikely road to the World Series for both the Rangers and Diamondbacks. On September 26, the Rangers had +1400 odds to win the World Series. Five teams had better odds to win the World Series than the Rangers.

The Diamondbacks faced much worse World Series odds. Prior to defeating the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card Series, the Diamondbacks were +5000 to win the World Series.

With an implied probability of just two percent, the Diamondbacks are four wins away from beating the odds. They are certainly accustomed to being an underdog by now.

In April, the Diamondbacks had +12500 odds to win the World Series. Oddsmakers and the public did not expect rookie Corbin Carroll to have this much of an impact. Carroll and Ketel Marte are hot, but the Diamondbacks run into a scorching-hot Adolis García of the Rangers.

As we’ve discovered with the Diamondbacks and Rangers, getting hot at the right time in October is more important than playing consistently well throughout the summer.

Let’s get to our 2023 MLB World Series predictions and assemble a profitable MLB betting strategy for the World Series.

2023 MLB World Series Predictions

This wasn’t the World Series matchup that many people expected to see. However, we are in for a treat with the hottest bats in baseball converging at Globe Life Field and Chase Field.

Diamondbacks’ second baseman Marte is coming off a record-breaking NLCS MVP performance against the Philadelphia Phillies. In their 4-2 Game 7 win over the Phillies, Marte set a postseason record with hits in 16 straight games1.

Marte was responsible for a crucial double in the 7th inning to help push the Phillies to the brink. The 30-year-old native of the Dominican Republic has watched his career come full circle in the postseason.

He leads all players in the World Series, with a batting average of .358. Marte chipped in with two home runs and seven RBIs to help catapult the Diamondbacks to an appearance in the 2023 World Series.

However, Marte is the only D-Back hitting greater than .300. The Rangers have three players who are hitting over this milestone in the postseason: Evan Carter, Corey Seager, and García2.

Regarding overall impact in the League Championship Series, ALCS MVP García had an edge on Marte. Not only was García a contact hitter, with a .327 batting average, he hit for power. García leads the postseason with seven home runs and 20 RBIs in the postseason3.

Additionally, Marte hasn’t reached base as efficiently as Seager in the postseason. Seager’s .483 OBP is the only on-base percentage in the Top 10 of World Series players4.

As a team, the Rangers have connected for a .265 batting average, as opposed to a .247 batting average for the Diamondbacks. Furthermore, the Rangers have been far ahead of the Diamondbacks in home runs and RBIs.

Through the League Championship Series, the Rangers lead the postseason with 67 RBIs. They’ve also smacked 22 postseason home runs for the second-most behind the Phillies. Conversely, the Diamondbacks have notched 50 RBIs and 18 home runs5.

Pitching was a concern for the Rangers going into the postseason. Bettors largely faded the Rangers because they didn’t believe their bullpen would hold up. With a 3.67 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 12 games, the pitching staff is in better form than in the regular season.

That being said, the Diamondbacks have had the advantage on the mound. They held the Phillies to just three runs through the last two games. Overall, the Diamondbacks posted an ERA of 3.23 and a 1.25 WHIP in 12 postseason assignments6.

The Diamondbacks have a slight advantage with their pitching. However, the Rangers’ offense should prove to be difficult to slow down. Even if one of their big bats regresses, the Rangers have multiple weapons to back the offense up.

The offensive depth in the Rangers’ lineup will likely be the difference in the World Series. The series is unlikely to be over in four or five games, but expect the Rangers to prevail and capture their first World Series title.

The Bet
TEXAS RANGERS

Best World Series Prop Bets

In addition to betting on the winner of the World Series, there are a variety of 2023 World Series prop bets available at online betting sites.

World Series Total Games

GAMESODDS
Over 5.5-175
Under 5.5+145

We don’t see the World Series being over in four or five games. The Rangers will undoubtedly receive some resistance. The Diamondbacks didn’t upset the Dodgers and Phillies just to fold against the Rangers.

While we don’t foresee the Diamondbacks preventing the levy from breaking against the Rangers’ heavy hitters for a whole series, there will be times when the Diamondbacks are in control. In other words, don’t expect the Rangers to run up the scoreboard for eight runs in every game.

Marte and Carroll should have a game or two in the spotlight. A small-ball strategy with the Diamondbacks’ speed is likely to be successful at times.

With this in mind, the Rangers should require six games to defeat the pesky Snakes. The Over 5.5 in what is likely a six-game World Series appears like the best bet.

The Bet
OVER 5.5

World Series Total Runs

RUNSODDS
Over 56.5+160
Under 56.5-200

The Diamondbacks and Rangers reached the World Series by two different means. The NLCS champs held the Phillies to two or fewer runs in four of the last five games in the NL Championship.

A total of 51 runs were scored in the seven-game series between the Phillies and Diamondbacks7. The Diamondbacks’ pitching prevented the Phillies from doing what the Rangers did against the Astros.

In the ALCS, the Rangers scored 38 runs, with a total of 72 runs scored between the Rangers and Astros8. The Rangers have averaged 5.92 runs, while the Diamondbacks have scored an average of 4.25 runs per game in the postseason9.

In a World Series that lasts six games, there will need to be an average of 9.5 runs scored per game. The Over-Under will be set Under 9.5 runs for every game in this series. Even if this series reaches seven games, an average of just over eight runs must be scored to hit the Over at 56.5 runs.

As we noted, the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff should manage to cool off the Rangers for a couple of games. And if you like the Diamondbacks to win, it will be due to their pitchers and not because they outpaced the Rangers in high-scoring shootouts.

Furthermore, the Rangers’ pitching has improved from the regular season to the postseason. They are capable of winning a low-scoring duel if it comes down to that against the D-Backs.

Consider looking at the Under 56.5 runs for total runs scored in the World Series.

The Bet
UNDER 56.5

Most Home Runs

PLAYERODDSPLAYERODDS
Corey Seager+450Adolis García+450
Mitch Garver+600Christian Walker+800
Josh Jung+900Marcus Semien+1000
Ketel Marte+1200Lourdes Gurriel Jr.+1200
Corbin Carroll+1400Jonah Heim+1400
Evan Carter+1800Evan Longoria+2000
Tommy Pham+2200Nate Lowe+2800

There are some juicy World Series odds on the board for this home run prop bet. The shortest odds are +450 on Seager and García to hit the most home runs in the 2023 World Series.

Even with the shortest odds, there is value in García to hit the most long balls at +450. García leads all hitters in the postseason with seven home runs in 12 games.

The next closest hitter to García in the World Series is the Diamondbacks’ Alek Thomas, with four home runs. Despite playing the same number of games in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks don’t have a hitter that has tallied five or more long balls.

In the ALCS alone, García hit five home runs to lead the Rangers to the World Series and ALCS MVP honors. García has hit five home runs in the last four games, with two in Game 7 to clinch a spot in the World Series10.

This isn’t a flash in the pan for García. He is playing his best baseball of the year, but the 30-year-old outfielder led the Rangers in home runs in the regular season. García tallied 39 home runs, which put him six home runs ahead of Seager in second11.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, Christian Walker led the D-Backs with 33 home runs this past season12. Currently, Walker is +800 to lead the World Series in home runs.

With García on fire at the plate, he has to be considered to lead the World Series in home runs. At +450, there is value to be had on the Cuban lightning rod.

The Bet
ADOLIS GARCIA

Most RBIs

PLAYERODDSPLAYERODDS
Corey Seager+450Adolis García+650
Jonah Heim+850Christian Walker+1000
Marcus Semien+1200Evan Carter+1200
Mitch Garver+1200Josh Jung+1400
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.+1600Ketel Marte+1800
Tommy Pham+1800Gabriel Moreno+2200
Nate Lowe+2500Corbin Carroll+2800

If you like García to hit the most home runs, there is a correlation to him recording the most RBIs. In addition to hitting five home runs against the Astros, García set an ALCS record with 15 RBIs13.

Through the postseason, García has been on fire with 20 RBIs in only 12 games. He leads all hitters by a comfortable margin. García is 5 RBIs ahead of the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez, who was the favorite to win the 2023 World Series MVP for the majority of the postseason.

The Rangers’ Garver has recorded the second-most RBIs out of all World Series players. Garver’s 11 RBIs is a couple more than the Diamondbacks’ RBI leader, Gabriel Moreno14.

With García’s ability to pile up the RBIs in a hurry with one swing of the bat, he is a leading contender to have the most RBIs, as well.

The Bet
ADOLIS GARCIA

Most Hits

PLAYERODDSPLAYERODDS
Corey Seager+450Marcus Semien+650
Ketel Marte+800Corbin Carroll+800
Evan Carter+900Josh Jung+1000
Gabriel Moreno+1000Jonah Heim+1200
Nate Lowe+1400Lourdes Gurriel Jr.+1400
Adolis García+1400Christian Walker+1600
Mitch Garver+1800Leody Taveras+1800

The Rangers spent a lot of money to make this World Series run possible. In 2021, they signed Seager and Marcus Semien to lucrative, long-term deals. Anything less than a World Series will be a bust, considering the money spent on their ten-year and seven-year contracts.

This season, Seager earned his money with the Rangers. He led the Rangers with a batting average of .327 and a .390 OBP. Additionally, Seager finished second on the Rangers, behind García, with 33 home runs.

Seager is coming off an impressive performance in Game 7. The 29-year-old veteran went 3-for-5 with a home run against the Astros. It was Seager’s sixth hit in four games. Additionally, Seager has hit safely in six of his previous eight games, with nine hits since October 1015.

Look for the Rangers’ shortstop to have a strong performance in the World Series. He’s worth a pick at +450 to have the most hits.

The Bet
COREY SEAGER

Most Stolen Bases

PLAYERODDSPLAYERODDS
Corbin Carroll+150Evan Carter+450
Tommy Pham+800Geraldo Perdomo+800
Christian Walker+900Leody Taveras+900
Ketel Marte+1200Marcus Semien+1800
Adolis García+2500Alek Thomas+2500
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.+2500Corey Seager+4000
Gabriel Moreno+5000

The Diamondbacks must be aggressive against the Rangers. They don’t match up well when it comes to power, but the Diamondbacks can use speed to their advantage.

This season, Carroll became the first rookie to record a minimum of 25 home runs and 50 steals in a single season16. There are a lot of things to like about Carroll’s game. 

He possesses numerous attributes that will make him a star in the majors for a long time. Carroll’s best ability is his base stealing and speed around the bases. The Diamondbacks aren’t in the World Series without his speed.

In 2023, Carroll finished third in stolen bases in the regular season. He swiped 54 bases for the third-best total in MLB. Only Esteury Ruiz and Ronald Acuna Jr. stole more bases than Carroll in the regular season.

When Carroll lands on first base, he’s always going to be a threat to steal second. Torey Lovullo will give Carroll the green light at every opportunity. At plus money, Carroll has the best value to steal the most bases in the World Series.

The Bet
CORBIN CARROLL

2023 World Series MVP Odds

PLAYERODDSPLAYERODDS
Adolis García+600Corey Seager+600
Corbin Carroll+900Ketel Marte+900
Marcus Semien+1400Nathan Eovaldi+1600
Evan Carter+1800Zac Gallen+1800
Mitch Garver+1800Christian Walker+1800
Josh Jung+1800Gabriel Moreno+1800
Jordan Montgomery+2000Lourdes Gurriel Jr.+2500

For our final 2023 MLB World Series predictions, we are evaluating the latest World Series MVP odds.

Rangers World Series MVP Best Bet

It is going to come as no surprise who our top Rangers pick is to win the World Series MVP. There isn’t much reason to look away from García now. When he’s confident and in a groove, there isn’t a lot that opposing hitters can do to negate his bat.

Most importantly, García had a clutch bat when it mattered the most in the ALCS. There wasn’t a moment that fazed García in the biggest moments of the AL Championship. The bright lights of the World Series shouldn’t hinder him.

As a second option, consider Josh Jung at +1800 odds. The 25-year-old is a streaky hitter. He can get hot and cold, but if Jung is hot, there is a chance of winning the World Series MVP award.

García is our World Series MVP best bet, while Jung is a solid option for a longshot wager.

The Bet
ADOLIS GARCIA

Diamondbacks World Series MVP Best Bet

If the Diamondbacks win the World Series, the onus is going to fall on a rookie. Fortunately, Carroll is capable of putting the D-Backs on his back and shining bright despite being involved in only his first MLB postseason.

In 565 at-bats in the regular season, Carroll hit .285 with a .362 OBP and 76 RBIs. He finished with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases, as we noted is a record among rookies in MLB. Carroll hasn’t been silent in his first postseason appearance, either.

Carroll is hitting .295 with a .396 OBP and 6 RBIs. He’s tacked on two home runs and has also stolenfouor bases. Carroll’s base running ability should make this a competitive World Series. It could ultimately lead the D-Backs to a World Series and Corbin to MVP.

The Bet
CORBIN CARROLL

Sources

  1. Ketel Marte named 2023 NLCS MVP | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/news/ketel-marte-hitting-streak-to-open-postseason-career-record

  2. 2023 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/batting-average

  3. Adolis García Stats, Fantasy & News | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/adolis-garcia-666969

  4. 2023 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/on-base-percentage

  5. 2023 MLB Team Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/team

  6. 2023 MLB Team Pitching Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/pitching?sortState=asc

  7. Arizona Diamondbacks 2023 Postseason MLB Schedule | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/ari/arizona-diamondbacks

  8. Texas Rangers 2023 Postseason MLB Schedule | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/tex/texas-rangers

  9. MLB Team Postseason Runs Per Game 2023 | StatMuse. Retrieved From “https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/mlb-team-postseason-runs-per-game-2023

  10. Adolis Garcia 2023 Batting Stats Per Game – MLB | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/35537/adolis-garcia

  11. 2023 Rangers Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/rangers/stats/regular-season

  12. 2023 D-backs Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/stats/regular-season

  13. Rangers’ Adolis Garcia named ALCS MVP after setting RBI records in jaw-dropping series vs. Astros | CBS Sports. Retrieved From “https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rangers-adolis-garcia-named-alcs-mvp-after-setting-rbi-records-in-jaw-dropping-series-vs-astros/

  14. 2023 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/rbi

  15. Corey Seager 2023 Batting Stats Per Game – MLB | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/32691/corey-seager

  16. Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll Makes MLB History With 25th Home Run, 50th Steal | SI.com. Retrieved From “https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/09/20/diamondbacks-corbin-carroll-mlb-history-25th-home-run-50th-steal

    2023 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/stolen-bases/regular-season

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Kyle Eve

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Kyle is a seasoned pro of TheSportsGeek. Since the native of Windsor, Ontario, Canada, joined the team in 2011, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible.

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