Best NBA Betting Stats: What Statistics to Evaluate for Bets

Picking the best NBA stats for betting in the endless ocean of basketball data can be challenging. On the surface, you will find common NBA statistics like points per game, but if you dig deep into the numbers, there are countless advanced stats that can help in your NBA betting.

It can be quite confusing to select the most useful statistics for NBA betting, but I’m here to help! Head below for the best NBA betting stats to handicap and evaluate before betting on the NBA.

Average Scoring Margin
Possessions Per Game
Points Scored In Paint Per Game vs. Points Allowed In PPG
Turnovers Per Offensive Play
Steals Per Defensive Play
Offensive Rebounds Per Game
Effective Field Goal Percentage
Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage
Opponent Three-Point Percentage
Personal Fouls Per Game
Effective Possession Ratio

1. Average Scoring Margin

The average scoring margin simply looks at the team point differential in games. This takes into account all of the final scores in a season. The numbers are compiled to determine the average win or average loss point differential against their opponents.

The average scoring margin can be a positive or a negative number.

For instance, teams that are at the bottom of the league in the average scoring margin are going to have the biggest negative number in the league. In this case, they’ve been on the receiving end of lopsided losses often.

Taking advantage of teams with a negative average scoring margin that still have a favorable opinion in the public, with overinflated lines, are bets to target.

Example: The Washington Wizards suffered plenty of lopsided results in the 2024-25 regular season which resulted in a -12.4 average scoring margin. That was the worst mark in the NBA, which also translated to the 4th-worst ATS record of 34-46-2. At the other end of the scoring margin discussion were the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC had an average scoring margin +12.5 in the 2024-25 regular season, easily tops in the league. Their backers also cashed in nicely as OKC went 53-25-4 ATS. In either scenario, catching onto these trends early in the season would’ve proved profitable.

2. Possessions Per Game

Possessions per game are an important metric when betting on the NBA, especially for NBA Over Under stats. This is one of the NBA betting stats that should be considered when determining the pace of teams.

Generally, teams with a quicker pace are going to have more possessions per game and scoring opportunities.

The average scoring margin can be a positive or a negative number.

Example: During the 2024-25 NBA regular season three teams topped 106 possessions per game and all three cashed more OVER tickets than UNDERS. The Memphis Grizzlies (106.8) were 46-36, while the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls both averaged 106.4 possessions and went 50-31-1 and 42-39-1 to the OVER respectively. The two teams who earned the fewest average possessions were the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic (each 99.7). Both were in the top three of UNDER-cashing teams at 45-37 and 47-35.

3. Points Scored In Paint Per Game vs. Points Allowed In PPG

Efficiency around the rim rates high on my list of NBA stats to handicap. How many times do you have a bet and your team can’t finish in the paint? It’s frustrating and adds up at the end of a game.

This is an absolute metric.

You’ll have to compare points in the paint per game against the other team’s defense. Typically, teams that get pushed around in the paint on defense versus teams that are effective offensively in the paint have a tough time covering spreads.

The NBA isn’t played on the blocks as much in this era: Through the 2000s, it was imperative to have a big man down low to feed. This isn’t as important now, as spraying jump shots from around the floor have taken on more importance. Having said that, it’s still important for teams to finish around the rim.

4. Turnovers Per Offensive Play

Protecting the ball and limiting team turnovers is imperative to covering point spreads. Oftentimes turnovers lead to points on the other end. Not only are scoring chances surrendered, but turnovers turn into points on the other side.

In many instances, NBA point spreads come down to the final minutes and seconds of games. All of the turnovers can come back to bite a team late in the 4th quarter.

Example: The OKC Thunder did a lot of things right in the 2024-25 season. One of which, was protecting the ball. OKC led the league in turnover percentage per offensive play and turnovers per game at just 10.1% and 11.5. That translated to a league-best record in wins and losses (68-14) and also in bets against the spread (53-25-4). We can expand on this further and see that two of the top three teams in turnovers per game also posted winning ATS records. Cleveland averaged only 11.4% of turnovers per offensive play and went 48-33-1 ATS, the second-best mark.

5. Steals Per Defensive Play

Conversely, it’s important to look at the other side as well. Teams that swipe balls and generate steals are important NBA betting stats, as well.

The OKC led the NBA steals per play at 10.3 and that, among many strong stats, helped lead thethem to a league-best record.

It’s important to note that the four best teams in steals per play during 2024-25 were all .500 or better against the spread. This has to be one of the most important NBA stats for betting on the league.

6. Offensive Rebounds Per Game

Second-chance and even third-chance points are important to winning games and covering spreads. Rebounding on both ends of the glass is important. If a team is bad on the defensive boards, this means that they are giving up offensive rebounds.

It’s important to look at how well teams handle the offensive boards against their opponent’s defensive rebounding numbers.

The teams that have a high offensive rebounding rate often end up cashing plenty of tickets for their backers. During the 2024-25 season, each of Houston, Portland, Memphis, Toronto, and Golden State averaged 12.5 offensive rebounds per game or more. They all made up the top-five and all had winning ATS records.

7. Effective Field Goal Percentage

Looking at the field goal percentage of teams is important, but if you want to take things a step further then be sure to look into the effective field goal percentage. Also known as eFG%, this NBA betting stat takes into account that three-point attempts are more important.

When it comes to calculating the eFG%, three-pointers are worth 1.5 times more than a two-pointer.

The NBA is increasingly becoming a three-point league, so eFG% is more important than the normal field goal percentage metric. This isn’t the most common NBA statistic, but it should be given more weight in this era of NBA basketball.

8. Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage

It is just as important to look at how well teams are on the defensive floor. The opponent effective field goal percentage metric provides an overview of two-point and three-point defense.

As a result of more teams pulling up from the field instead of feeding big men in the paint, the effective field goal percentage defense is important.

The same formula is used to determine the effective defensive field goal percentage, with more consideration given to three-point success.

9. Opponent Three-Point Percentage

Even more important than three-point percentage offensively is how well teams play defense on the perimeter. In this era of NBA basketball, most teams are good from three. There is a sharpshooter on every NBA roster.

There is a big difference between teams that defend the three ball well and don’t.

Ensure that your NBA betting stats include defense on the perimeter against the three. It’s imperative to have a strong defense beyond the arc to have success in today’s NBA today. In 2024-25, five of the top six teams in opponent three-point percentage were winning ATS teams.

10. Personal Fouls Per Game

Teams never want to give opponents a free trip to the charity stripe. Staying on the good side of NBA officials is a good way to win games.

It’s always frustrating when your team allows a carousel of players to the free-throw line. These bonus points can end up deciding the points spread at the end of four quarters or overtime.

Example: Avoiding excessive fouls keeps your best players on the court and your opponent away from the free-throw line. In theory, you’re likely to cover more spreads. But remember to never bet on any one stat blindly. In 2024-25, the Miami Heat averaged the fewest fouls per game at 15.6, but still had a losing ATS mark. The Toronto Raptors endured the most fouls per game at 21.2 but still tied for the 2nd-best ATS record. But in many cases, low fouls, equals better teams to bet on. Some good examples include the LA Lakers and Chicago Bulls who ranked 4th and 5th in fewest fouls per game. They ended 6th and 7th in winning ATS records.

11. Effective Possession Ratio

The effective possession ratio NBA statistic isn’t an old measurement of success. It’s a fairly recent metric used by teams as a barometer for how well the team is playing.

As sports bettors, we can use this NBA betting stat to our advantage. While the effective possession ratio is last on our list, it’s certainly not the least important. The EPR of a team calculates how effective a team is at generating a scoring opportunity for each possession. Essentially, how good is a team at creating their own scoring changes is the EPR.

Example: The Houston Rockets were the only team to finish above 1.00 in EPR during the 2024-25 season at 1.008. They were 43-38-1 ATS. Meanwhile, four of the top five teams in EPR also had winning ATS records.

Ready to Start Using the Best NBA Betting Stats?

Evaluating NBA betting stats is not as simple as just looking at points and points against per game. Digging deeper into the numbers provides sports bettors with a complete picture. For long-term success, breaking down and handicapping advanced NBA stats is the only path to success.

If you’re ready to try your luck with the stats shown in this article, I strongly recommend checking BetUS out. It’s one of the best NBA betting sites, offering competitive odds, a strong variety of markets, and excellent bonuses.

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Best NBA Stats for Betting: Use These Statistics for Your Wagers