Candidates Chess Tournament 2026 Preview: Predictions, Odds, & Picks

Fabiano Caruana (+165)

Following a disappointing ending to the 2024 Candidates Tournament, Caruana returns for another crack at earning his ticket to the World Chess Championship. Ranked No. 3 with a classical rating of 2,795, Caruana is one of the most highly regarded players in this format.

Two years ago, he finished in a tie for second place with Hikaru Nakamura and Ian Nepomniachtchi in Toronto. His 8.5 points, however, weren’t enough to catch Gukesh, whose 9 points earned him a match against Ding Liren. That near miss only raises the question: is there now immense pressure on Caruana to deliver and finish on top this time?

I’d say yes. Caruana has accomplished nearly everything else in his career, but a World Chess Championship title still eludes him. He won the Candidates in 2018, only to lose the ensuing match to Magnus Carlsen in tiebreaks. Carlsen, the long-time world No. 1, is the one player who has managed to frustrate Caruana on a consistent basis.

The two met again at the FIDE Freestyle Chess World Championship in mid-February, where Carlsen took the final 2.5-1.5. Still, Caruana has defeated Carlsen eight times in 26 classical encounters, so it’s not as if he can’t beat the very best. More importantly, he won’t face anyone of Carlsen’s caliber at the 2026 Candidates Tournament.

His peers seem to believe that he has the upper hand heading into the tournament.

Who Will Win FIDE Candidates 2026? GM Fabiano Caruana's Tierlist 👀 @FabianoCaruana
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edit: Tushar @chess_holic
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.#chess #chessbaseindia #fabianocaruana pic.twitter.com/ZdosQ2HsTU

— ChessBase India (@ChessbaseIndia) February 23, 2026

Caruana’s recent results do include losses to Wesley So and Levon Aronian, but that’s not especially worrying. The American Cup is a different format, and Caruana’s focus is clearly on the Candidates. Overall, “Fabi” is in excellent form and looks very much like the man to beat in Cyprus.

Hiraku Nakamura (+300)

Nakamura will undoubtedly have a large contingent of supporters behind him. With his wealth of experience, the 38-year-old knows what it takes to win and should be in contention down the stretch.

At the 2024 Candidates Tournament, Nakamura entered his final game against Gukesh in a must-win situation. Despite that, he was never truly in contention and failed to give himself a realistic chance.

Nakamura’s talent has never been in doubt. He has claimed several notable titles, including victory at the 2023 Norway Chess tournament over Caruana. That said, he hasn’t been particularly active over the last year, making it difficult to gauge his current form.

Instead of chess, the 38-year-old has put most of his effort into being a content creator and streamer. He has a massive following on his social media platforms. Nakamura is followed by over 3 million subscribers on his YouTube channel.

You can guarantee that Nakamura will head into the Candidates Tournament without any pressure or much stress. It’s foolish to suggest that he doesn’t care, but I don’t believe he feels like he needs the World Chess Championship title to solidify his career. In any case, that relaxed approach may end up playing in his favor.

I would love to see Nakamura win, but he likely comes up just short again in his fourth attempt at the Candidates.

Javokhir Sindarov (+350)

In a career first, Sindarov is off to the Candidates Tournament and looking to find lightning in a bottle. In 2024, Gukesh came out of nowhere to get red-hot and beat veterans that have been in the event in the past.

The 20-year-old Uzbek grandmaster is aiming to follow a similar path and set up a showdown against Gukesh. Like his Indian rival, Sindarov is a rising star in chess and should be right in the thick of the Candidates on the final day.

In 2025, at 19, Sindarov became the youngest winner of the FIDE Chess World Cup, defeating Wei Yi in an impressive performance that propelled him further up the rankings. As the fifth-youngest grandmaster of all time, he is a major threat and highly likely to remain in contention right through to the final match.

Currently, Sindarov owns an Elo rating of 2,745 that puts him 12th in the world. Even if it doesn’t mean winning the Candidates, I expect Sindarov to climb to new heights in 2026. Inexperience could be his downfall, but it’s difficult not to put him in the conversation with Caruana.