FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Group A Preview: Can Messi Spark Inter Miami?

FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Group A Preview: Can Messi Spark Inter Miami?

The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Group A odds unsurprisingly favor FC Porto and Palmeiras. However, Inter Miami have the soccer GOAT and the home advantage, so they will be eager to progress to the knockouts.

Can Messi lead Inter to the top spot?  Continue reading to find the latest prices to finish atop the group, my analysis of all teams, and my best FIFA Club World Cup Group A predictions!

FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Group A Winner Odds

Club World Cup Group A winner odds are courtesy of BetUS:

TEAMODDS
FC Porto+135
Palmeiras+165
Inter Miami CF+300
Al Ahly Cairo+900

Portuguese side FC Porto (+135) is favored to win Group A over Brazil’s Palmeiras (+165). With odds of +135, FC Porto has a 42.6% implied probability to record the most points. Not far behind, Palmeiras holds a 37.7% chance at +165, per the best soccer betting sites.

MLS’ Inter Miami, which qualified due to their MLS 2024 Supporters’ Shield, has the third-best odds at +300. Currently, Lionel Messi’s squad has a reasonable chance of winning at 25%. All things considered, this is probably the best group that Inter Miami could have landed in.

Al Ahly Cairo (+900) from Egypt is up against long odds in Group A of the Club World Cup. As the largest underdog of the bunch, the Egyptian Premier League outfit holds just a 10% implied probability to win the group.

Crazier things have happened in soccer betting, but it’s going to be tough for Al Ahly Cairo to qualify for the knockouts, let alone win Group A. You can find the most up-to-date odds to win Group A at BetUS by navigating to Sportsbook > Soccer > FIFA Club World Cup Outrights > To Win Group A FIFA Club World Cup 2025.

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FIFA Club World Cup Group A Favorites

There are two clear favorites in the battle for top honors in Group A. Let’s take a deep dive into both clubs and their chances:

FC Porto (+135)

  • League: Primeira Liga (Portugal)
  • Head Coach: Martin Anselmi
  • Key Players: Samu Aghehowa, Diogo Costa, Rodrigo Mora, Fabio Vieira

Any season without the Portuguese title is a disappointment for Porto. The team finished third in the table with a record of 22-5-7 and 71 points.

Porto trailed Sporting FC by 11 points at the end of the 2025 season. The most well-known club in Portugal still had several bright moments, though. They finished strong with four wins in their last five matches, finding some form in the Club World Cup build-up.

Still, the overall numbers lined up with their third-place finish, as Porto was third with 1.9 goals for and 0.9 goals against in the Primeira Liga, a modest return for the club’s standards.

There’s a lot of quality on this roster despite not achieving their ultimate goal of lifting the trophy in Portugal again. We should see this on full display against the more manageable opposition in Group A.

Two talented playmakers spearhead the offense. Forward Samu Aghehowa and emerging superstar midfielder Rodrigo Mora offer Porto a couple of dangerous scorers. The 19-year-old Mora is having such a fantastic year that he is turning heads at Barcelona.

Mora’s form in the league gives Porto plenty of confidence going to the US. Over the last nine matches, Mora notched nine goals as he remains on fire with the Club World Cup on the horizon. He is the most dynamic player in Group A and a game-changer for Porto.

The team can also rely on a solid goalkeeper like Diogo Costa, midfield anchor Alan Varela, Arsenal loanee Fabio Viera, and many other talented players.

Porto is by far the best team in this group, and I expect them to dictate the tempo in every single game. While the favorites might not win all matches, finishing first in Group A is the most likely outcome.

Palmeiras (+165)

  • League: Brasileirão Série A (Brazil)
  • Head Coach: Abel Ferreira
  • Key Players: Estevao, Vitor Roque, Richard Rios

There will be no shortage of fan support for Palmeiras in the Club World Cup, but will that translate into a successfu campaign? They are currently in the midst of a solid campaign in the Campeonato Brasileirão Série A.

Through 11 matches, Palmeiras is fourth in the top Brazilian league. They’ve notched a record of 7-1-3, but their form has slipped recently with back-to-back losses in league play against Cruzeiro and Flamengo. Those are two of the best clubs in Brazil, with Flamengo leading the table at 7-3-1.

Last year, Flamengo was the only club in Brazil that finished ahead of Palmeiras by six points. That ended two years of Palmeiras championships, as their bid for a 13th was denied. Losing star center-back Vitor Reis to Manchester City was a major blow to the franchise.

Still, Estevao will be there, giving the team hope of a strong run in the tournament. The talented youngster is set to transfer to Chelsea this summer, but the deal will go through after the Club World Cup.

Estevao is a do-it-all winger capable of scoring, playmaking, and defensive skills. I’m looking forward to watching Estevao vs. Mora in Group A, which should prove to be a thrilling battle!

Palmeiras lean heavily on their defense, as they’re fourth with eight goals conceded at 0.72 per match. Where are they going to get the offensive firepower from, though? Note that Palmeiras is just 10th in the Brasileirão Série A, with 1.09 goals per match.

The Brazilians should be fine against Al Ahly and maybe Inter Miami, but Porto should be able to suffocate them. That’s why I don’t expect them to finish first in the group.

FIFA Club World Cup Group A Longshots

Porto and Palmeiras have the clear upper hand, so they will be the most popular FIFA Club World Cup Group A picks, but is there any value elsewhere? Let’s check out two underdogs:

Inter Miami CF (+300)

  • League: MLS (USA)
  • Head Coach: Javier Mascherano
  • Key Players: Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, Tadao Allende, Sergio Busquets

When the teams were revealed for the tournament, there was a collective question about why Inter Miami was included. The official reasoning is that Inter Miami won the 2024 Supporters’ Shield and finished with the best overall record in the MLS.

However, public opinion is that FIFA wanted to find a way to include Messi in the tournament. That is to be expected for a player of his magnitude and fan reach. TV ratings and attendance will undoubtedly be higher for matches that he is participating in.

Nevertheless, I’m not overly optimistic about Inter Miami’s chances as far as winning this tournament is concerned. Even winning Group A or qualifying for the knockouts is questionable. Inter Miami has the sixth most points in the MLS and is ranked third in the Eastern Conference with a record of 8-5-3.

The three-headed attack of Messi, Tadeo Allende, and Luis Suárez offers Inter Miami exciting options in the offensive third. Messi leads The Herons with 10 goals and is tied for second in assists with seven. Suárez is atop with eight assists as the former Barça star continues to enjoy a comfortable life in the MLS.

However, all of this flash comes at an expense because Inter Miami hasn’t kept the same energy on the defensive side. They’ve allowed 27 goals, for an average of 1.68 per game. That’s in the bottom quarter of the MLS and isn’t going to win them a championship. Sergio Busquets gives them a presence defensively, but depth is a concern.

The Messi factor is affording Inter Miami shorter odds to win Group A than I think they deserve. The team’s most potent players are deep in their 30s, so they should struggle against both Porto and Palmeiras.

Al Ahly Cairo (+900)

  • League: Egyptian Premier League
  • Head Coach: Jose Riveiro
  • Key Players: Ashour Eman, Wessam Abou Ali, Hussein El Shahat

Al Ahly Cairo has the longest 2025 Group A Club World Cup odds at +900. Although I don’t anticipate them winning the group, they should be more competitive than that price suggests.

Fresh off an Egyptian Premier League title, Al Ahly Cairo enters the tournament with some momentum on their side. They’re in top form with six consecutive wins and haven’t lost since a 2-1 loss to Pharco on April 17.

If Ashour Eman can get hot and gather confidence early, Al Ahly Cairo might be good for an upset. The rest of Group A can’t sleep on Al Ahly Cairo or they’re going to catch them by surprise.

Al Ahly Cairo went an impressive 11-6-0 in the regular season and 6-1-1 in the playoffs. They are on the heels of a 6-0 blowout over Pharco as they put together preparations for the Club World Cup.

In 25 matches, they’ve registered a wildly impressive 58 goals and 15 against for a 43-goal differential in 2024-25. When Eman and Wessam Abou Ali are in top form, the rest of the club feeds off their energy. It’s a tough ask, but not out of the realm of possibility that Al Ahly Cairo sneaks in to qualify for the knockouts.

Still, the level of competition in the domestic league is far off the likes of Porto and Palmeiras. Qualifying for the next stage would be tough, while finishing at the top of the standings is borderline impossible.

FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Group A Predictions and Betting Pick

While Group A doesn’t feature any powerhouses or clubs expected to win the tournament, it should be entertainment. Messi makes Group A definitely a must-watch, but I’m not banking on Inter Miami edging ahead to finish at the top.

Porto has to be the team to beat here, purely based on quality and depth. The other dangerous team is Palmeiras. The Brazilians are the biggest threat to the main favorite win and should reach the Round of 16.

Still, the odds for Porto to finish first in this group are way too high.

They’ve yielded less than a goal per game and remain fundamentally sound. Porto is going to run into problems in the knockouts — I’m not willing to bet on them to win the Club World Cup.

Nevertheless, I’m happy to take them at plus odds to win Group A of the Club World Cup 2025.

The Bet
FC Porto
About the Author
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Kyle Eve
Editor-in-Chief
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Kyle Eve is Editor-in-Chief of The Sports Geek, providing reliable analysis for millions of readers since joining the team in 2012. After placing his first sports bet on his 18th birthday, Kyle has devoted his entire adult life to becoming the best bettor he can be. He’s covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world, from the Super Bowl and World Series to the NBA Finals and Kentucky Derby. Kyle lives in Windsor, Ontario.
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