FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Group F Preview: Dortmund Cruises?

Group F Winner Odds

Top-flight Bundesliga club Borussia Dortmund (-260) is a strong favorite to win Group F. At -260, Borussia Dortmund has a 72.2% implied probability of finishing on top of the table.

According to the best soccer betting sites, only Borussia Dortmund and Fluminense RJ (+240) have a realistic chance of winning Group F. The Brazilian outfit is behind Borussia Dortmund, with a 29.4% implied probability to record the most points.

After those two clubs, Ulsan HD FC (+1500) and Mamelodi Sundowns (+2500) are massive underdogs to win. They’re likely just happy to be here, so I’m not optimistic about their chances. In any event, they landed in one of the best groups possible.

To Qualify from Group F Odds

Clearly enough, Borussia Dortmund (-1400) has the dominant position to qualify from Group F. As the favorites to win, it’s abundantly clear that they are going to be in a fantastic position to qualify. With odds of -1400, Borussia Dortmund holds a 99.3% implied chance of heading to the next round.

Likewise, Fluminense RJ (-350) has a high chance of advancing to the knockout rounds. With a 77.8% chance to win, the Brazilian Serie A club is well-positioned in Group F. They are the most fortunate team in the draw, as Ulsan HD FC (+275) and Mamelodi Sundowns (+450) should be manageable opponents.

Borussia Dortmund – The Clear Winner?

• • League: Bundesliga (Germany)
  • Manager: Niko Kovac
  • Key Players: Serhou Guirassy, Maximilian Beier, Nico Schlotterbeck

It’s been over a decade since Dortmund won the Bundesliga, but they’ve had some solid seasons that they can be proud of since then. Dortmund finished as the runner-up in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons and is coming off a strong campaign in Germany.

Dortmund posted a 17-6-11 record to conclude a fairly strong campaign to reach the UEFA Champions League. Bayern Munich destroyed the competition in the Bundesliga, so the title was well out of reach. Nevertheless, BVB has sufficient talent to pull away in Group F.

Sharpshooting striker Serhou Guirassy is expected to participate in the Club World Cup, and he should obliterate the weak defenses in this group. Guirassy scored 21 goals in 30 matches in Bundesliga play this season. Additionally, the 29-year-old Frenchman notched a whopping 13 goals in 14 matches in Champions League competition.

45 Spiele
43 Torbeteiligungen
34 Treffer
9 Assists

Serhou Guirassy für den BVB 24/25. pic.twitter.com/A7T2by7Esc

— Borussia Dortmund (@BVB) May 23, 2025

With dominant and physical center-back Nico Schlotterbeck on the pitch, Dortmund has the best offense and defense in Group F. They concluded the Bundesliga campaign with a solid +20 goal differential on 2.1 goals and 1.5 goals conceded per match.

Dortmund enters the Club World Cup on fire with wins in six consecutive matches and hasn’t lost since April 9’s defeat to Barcelona! The quality and depth are in favor of the Germans in this group, so they should win comfortably.

Fluminense RJ – Dortmund’s Only Threat?

• • League: Brasileirão Série A (Brazil)
  • Manager: Renato Gaucho
  • Key Players: Jhon Arias, Rene, Kevin Serna

Fluminense aims to stay in solid form following solid results in Brazil through 11 matches. The Rio de Janeiro based club is off to a 6-2-3 start with 20 points in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.

They are showing improved form after a disappointing 13th-place finish in 2023-24. It marked a pullback from their 16-8-14 campaign a season earlier, but Fluminense appears to be on the right road now.

Led by Colombian forward Kevin Serna, Fluminense have been efficient up front. In his second season at Fluminense, Serna has three goals in nine matches to give his squad a boost. Last season, the 27-year-old forward netted only three goals in 16 outings.

QUE JOGADA E QUE GOL DO COLOMBIANO KEVIN SERNA! pic.twitter.com/wiwpC74dea

— Fluminense F.C. (@FluminenseFC) December 8, 2024

If Serna can keep his scoring touch, along with elite form out of John Arias, Fluminense might have a case for an upset. They are going to need the same focus and energy that drove them to the Copa Libertadores title last year. That was an experienced team that played well together with plenty of chemistry.

Some elements of that team remain, albeit inconsistently. With 15 goals scored and 12 conceded, they run the case of being a rather average club in Brazil. Nevertheless, Fluminense is a dangerous unit when they’re playing at full strength.

I just don’t know if the firepower is available to knock off Dortmund, though!

Ulsan HD FC – Upset in Group F?

• • League: K League 1 (South Korea)
  • Manager: Kim Pangon
  • Key Players: Erick, Heo Yool, Darijan Bojanic

A lot is going to have to go in Ulsan HD’s direction if they are going to pull this one off. I’m not even talking about winning the group because that is well out of reach. Instead, qualifying to the knockouts would be a pretty sizable upset in Group F.

The 2025 Club World Cup Group F odds agree, as Ulsan has a long price just to qualify. They head into the event with a record of 8-5-6 and 29 points in South Korea’s K League 1. Currently, Ulsan trail Jeonbuk by six points for the top spot in the league.

Ulsan’s style relies heavily on defending deep and keeping the opposition quiet. They like to get ahead and sit on a one-goal lead by grinding away defensively. Overall, Ulsan have scored 1.21 goals while conceding 1.00 per match in the current season.

⚽️🔵⚪️ ERICK SCORES WINNING GOAL FOR ULSAN

Our striker had a great performance and reached his 5th goal for Ulsan HD FC on today’s away victory by 1-2 of K League 1 round 13. #EtminanBrazilFamily #EtminanBrazilAroundTheWorld #WorkHard #GodBless #KLeague1 pic.twitter.com/VpavkUD7VM

— Etminan Brazil (@etminanbrazil) May 11, 2025

That philosophy proved to be a liability in their latest outing in a 3-1 loss to Jeonbuk. Erick is the only true offensive threat for Ulsan. He has scored eight of Ulsan’s 23 goals this season. Opponents remove him from the equation and the offense doesn’t have many other options to score.

Ulsan may frustrate Fluminense for a while and could even beat Mamelodi Sundowns but stand little chance holding up versus the powerful Dortmund. I don’t recommend betting on Ulsan in any capacity for your FIFA Club World Cup betting picks.

Mamelodi Sundowns FC – Can They Record a Point?

• • League: Premiership (South Africa)
  • Manager: Miguel Cardoso
  • Key Players: Lucas Ribeiro Costa, Iqraam Rayners, Arthur

The big question for Mamelodi Sundowns is whether they can finish with a point — not if they can win Group F or even qualify for the knockouts. That’s well out of the picture for Mamelodi Sundowns. Qualifying for the Club World Cup is a win for this team, and anything more is an added bonus.

As a member of the top league in South Africa, Mamelodi Sundowns finished first with a record of 24-1-3 and 73 points. They dominated the competition in the 2024-25 season and have done so since the 2017-18 season!

Mamelodi Sundowns have won the Premiership title in South Africa for an incredible eight consecutive years. That sounds amazing, and it is, but their level of competition in South Africa is non-existent.

16- Lucas Ribeiro Costa is the Golden Boot winner for the 2024/25 season, scoring 16 goals – and becoming the first non-African player to be the top scorer in a PSL campaign. Supreme. pic.twitter.com/3hXScN9k7T

— OptaJabu (@OptaJabu) May 29, 2025

They have a trio of dangerous playmakers in Lucas Ribeiro Costa, Iqraam Rayners, and Arthur. However, they’ve largely exploited terrible defenses in the South African Premiership. It isn’t going to translate to success against Dortmund and Fluminense.

To answer the original question, yes, Mamelodi Sundowns could register a point in a draw against Ulsan. Anything beyond that appears well out of reach for the massive underdogs.