FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Group H Preview: Real Madrid Cakewalk?

Group H Winner Odds

Real Madrid (-700) is the overwhelming betting favorite to win Group H. According to the best soccer betting sites, Real Madrid has an 87.5% implied probability to finish at the top of the table. Considering their competition, that may even seem too low.

Saudi Arabia’s Al Hilal (+900) is a distant second, with a 10% chance to pull off a monumental upset over Real Madrid. Al Hilal and Red Bull Salzburg (+950) have nearly the same odds to win Group H. Currently, Salzburg holds a 9.5% chance of upsetting Real Madrid.

CF Pachuca (+2500) from the Mexican league is up against huge odds to win. I’m confident in proclaiming that you can toss out Pachuca from your Club World Cup Group H picks to win, who have just a 3.8% implied chance. Can they qualify for the knockouts, though?

To Qualify from Group H Odds

With Real Madrid (-3500) as the most obvious team to qualify, there is a lot to be decided behind the Los Blancos. Real Madrid has a massive advantage to qualify for the knockouts at 97.2%. Perhaps if an illness ravages the Real Madrid roster, but otherwise, they are going to the Round of 16.

Al Hilal (+110) and Salzburg (+118) are in a near-dead heat to earn the second qualification spot from Group H. The Saudi Arabian side holds a 47.6% implied probability, while Salzburg is on their heels at 45.9%. Pachuca (+310) has impossible odds to win Group H, but a respectable chance of 24.4% to qualify.

Real Madrid – Los Blancos’ Group to Lose

• • League: La Liga (Spain)
  • Manager: Xabi Alonso
  • Key Players: Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham

What could stop Real Madrid from winning Group H? Unless something incredibly unforeseen happens, Real Madrid will win this group without any complications. Moreover, I’m confident that Real Madrid could trot out their “B” team and still control the pace in Group H.

If Real Madrid wants to embarrass the rest of the group, they have enough ammunition to do so. The three-headed monster of Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, and Jude Bellingham is capable of downing Al Hilal, Salzburg, and Pachuca in a bad place.

Kylian Mbappé now has the most-ever goals in a debut season for Real Madrid (40) 👏 pic.twitter.com/TwSqTe1TmM

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) May 14, 2025

Although they couldn’t catch Barcelona in La Liga this season, Real Madrid put together a strong campaign. They finished with 84 points, four points shy of their bitter rivals. Overall, Real Madrid was second in La Liga with 78 goals and third in goals conceded with 38.

Is there anything that could prevent Real Madrid from winning Group H? I think if they completely no-show and don’t take the Club World Cup seriously, then there is a glimmer of hope. That said, they should have just enough motivation in the group stage to make easy work of their foes.

Al Hilal – The Best of the Rest?

• • League: Saudi Arabian Pro League
  • Manager: Simone Inzaghi
  • Key Players: Aleksandar Mitrovic, Salem Al-Dawsari, Malcom

Al Hilal certainly didn’t play the same competition in the Saudi Arabian Pro League as Real Madrid in La Liga. Nevertheless, it continues to progress and could be close to being a top 10 league in the next decade.

There is a lot of money to spend on star players in Saudi Arabia, but until they develop their domestic talent, the league will continue to lag behind the leading European leagues.

Al Hilal wants to do well on the world stage, so much so that they continued attempting to lure Napoli’s Victor Osimhen to Saudi Arabia as recently as a few days ago. Their campaign was unsuccessful, but it exemplifies the motivation and drive to have a strong showing in the tournament.

The team finished second behind Al-Ittihad with a record of 23-6-5 and 75 points. They’ve won four of their previous six matches, with a draw and a loss on the resume as well. Dangerous scorers Aleksandar Mitrovic and Salem Al-Dawsari should prove to be a challenge for the rest of the clubs in Group H.

Aleksandar Mitrovic for Serbia:

👕 100 games
⚽️ 62 goals

Serbian goal machine 🇷🇸

Will anyone top his record? Maybe not in our lifetime. pic.twitter.com/TYcTvx7YhH

— Serbian Football (@SerbianFooty) June 10, 2025

Don’t underestimate the playmaking ability of Malcom and Marcos Leonardo, either. There is no shortage of goalscoring on this roster, but breaking through Real Madrid’s defense should be difficult. I have confidence in them having success against Salzburg and Pachuca, however.

Red Bull Salzburg – Are They Motivated?

• • League: Austrian Bundesliga
  • Manager: Zsolt Low
  • Key Players: Nene Dorgeles, Petar Ratkov, Oscar Gloukh

After winning the Austrian Bundesliga for 10 years straight, Salzburg failed to win the title in 2024 and 2025. They did not reach their goals and expectations this past season after posting a 16-9-7 record and finishing behind SK Strum Graz.

My biggest concern with Salzburg is how much motivation they’re going to have to fly overseas and play in the Club World Cup. There will be a slew of clubs in this tournament who treat it merely as glorified friendlies.

Following a disappointing season in the Austrian Bundesliga, I wouldn’t be surprised if Salzburg doesn’t bring their best game. Mind you, they didn’t bring their best game all season in league play, so I’m not sure what will change in the US.

Salzburg concluded the Austrian Bundesliga fourth in goals with 53 and conceded 36 for second. Fans were hoping to see more offensive firepower from this squad, but they lacked the ability to strike in the attacking zone often. Nene Dorgeles and Oscar Gloukh were the only players to get into the double digits in goals!

🚨 Tottenham are one of the latest clubs to show an interest in Red Bull Salzburg winger Dorgeles Nene.

The 22-year old is likely to cost between €20m-€25m. He has also attracted interest from Leverkusen, Freiburg, Lazio and Fiorentina. 🇩🇪🇮🇹

(Source: @TEAMtalk) pic.twitter.com/GKT1Xb5vgl

— Transfer News Live (@DeadlineDayLive) June 10, 2025

There are some appealing pieces on the Salzburg roster. Dorgeles is a highly sought-after midfielder from Mali who will be a fun player to watch in the Club World Cup. He’s unlikely to get enough help to put a dent in Real Madrid, though, and qualifying for the knockouts is up in the air.

Pachuca – Impossible Assignment

• • League: Liga MX (Mexico)
  • Manager: Jaime Lozano
  • Key Players: Salomon Rondon, John Kennedy, Oussama Idrissi

If Pachuca is going to win Group H, it’s going to happen because the rest of the group didn’t show up. The odds for Club World Cup Group H suggest that Pachuca has a 3.8% implied probability to win, but I put it closer to 1%.

Liga MX’s Pachuca went 11-8-15, good enough for 12th this past season in the top Mexican league. They trailed Toluca by nine points for the lead through 34 matches. They are the only club in the top 12 that finished with a negative goal differential. Pachuca had a mediocre -3 goal differential in the 2024-25 season.

Since finishing on top of Liga MX in 2021-22, Pachuca has progressively declined and is struggling to keep pace with the top contenders. Salomon Rondon will be asked to go above and beyond to keep Pachuca in the mix in Group H. The Liga MX All-Star scored 14 goals and logged five assists in 30 contests.

Rondón Delivers When It Matters Most 🇻🇪

A closing goal from Salomón Rondón sends Venezuela closer to the World Cup playoffs in a 2-0 win vs Bolivia

The dream lives on — La Vinotinto just steps away from their first-ever World Cup 🏆

Catch @salorondon23 with @Tuzos in the… pic.twitter.com/ItcWSxuGRJ

— DAZN Football (@DAZNFootball) June 7, 2025

Aside from Rondon, John Kennedy must have a top-flight tournament for Pachuca to have some realm of any chance to qualify. However, depth is a major concern and will be their undoing in the Club World Cup. They don’t have nearly enough talent to scare anyone in Group H.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Pachuca doesn’t get a single point in this group.