CFP National Championship 2025-26 Odds: Who Will Stop the Buckeyes?

Ohio State Buckeyes – Dynasty in Progress?

• • Head Coach: Ryan Day
  • 2024-25 Record: 14-2 (National Champions)
  • National Titles: 9
  • Key Players: Julian Sayin (QB), Jeremiah Smith (WR), Carnell Tate (WR), Caleb Downs (S), Sonny Styles (LB)

After sitting on the hot seat for a couple of years, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day finally finished the job and led the Buckeyes to a national title. Entering the eight-team College Football Playoff as a No. 8 seed, Ohio State defeated Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame in the championship.

With starting QB Will Howard testing the waters in the NFL, the Buckeyes had a quarterback battle to determine QB1 for the 2025-26 season. Unsurprisingly, QB Julian Sayin took over the starting seat and has looked fine thus far. The important thing for the Buckeyes is that Sayin has continued to show progress throughout the season.

Sayin has passed for 2,675 yards, 25 touchdowns, and four interceptions on a wildly impressive 80.1% completions. There was doubt entering the season on whether Sayin is going to be that guy. However, the sophomore has answered the call, and keeps getting stronger and gaining more confidence.

The sophomore from Carlsbad, CA, has entered the Heisman Trophy conversation, and may even be the clear frontrunner. If I’m voting right now, Sayin would be my pick. He is operating with a bevy of incredible receiving talent on this roster, so don’t look past his weapons.

The patience from Sayin to find Rodgers for the TD 🪙🔥@OhioStateFB adds on another vs UCLA

📺:NBC pic.twitter.com/2hFKy4vHwg

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 16, 2025

WR Jeremiah Smith and WR Carnell Tate have been unstoppable weapons in the passing game. Smith has hauled in 69 receptions for 902 yards and 10 touchdowns. On the other side, Tate is dominating, too, with 711 yards and seven touchdowns on 39 receptions.

Tate has been absent for the last two games with an unspecified injury, but the offense is still humming and there isn’t any indication he’s done for the playoffs.

Either receiver has the potential to explode, and oftentimes it’s both of them having monster games. It puts immense pressure on defenses and is almost impossible to stop at times. With RB Bo Jackson rushing for 725 yards on 6.6 yards per carry, defensive coordinators have to guess.

The offense jumped all over UCLA this past week to advance to 10-0 and 7-0 in the Big Ten. This isn’t even what makes the Buckeyes a special team. The defense is historically stout up front and in the secondary.

Overall, Ohio State leads the NCAA with an insane points against mark of 8.3 per game. The Buckeyes are the only team in the nation allowing 10 or fewer points per game. They’re seventh in the nation against the run and third against the pass, yielding only 137.8 yards passing per contest!

CALEB DOWNS INTERCEPTION IN THE END ZONE @OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/qeTy6ztlqH

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 1, 2025

Led by S Caleb Downs and CB Jermaine Matthews Jr., Ohio State has just reloaded from last year. They’re also dominating in the box with LB Arvell Reese and DE Caden Curry.

The defensive depth is incredible, and even with an injury or two, expect the Buckeyes to keep on producing at an elite level. The champions are deservedly favored to repeat this year.

Indiana Hoosiers – Is the Hoosiers’ Season a Fluke?

• Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
• 2024-25 Record: 11-2 (Loss CFP to Notre Dame)
• National Titles: 0
• Key Players: Fernando Mendoza (QB), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR), Elijah Sarratt (WR), Louis Moore (CB), Rolijah Hardy (LB)

The Indiana Hoosiers are in the midst of a memorable campaign that could end in glory in the College Football Playoff. In the biggest shocker this season, Indiana looks like a powerhouse and, no, it doesn’t appear to be a fluke.

This is a strong team, and they certainly deserve to have the second-best odds to win the CFP behind Ohio State. Led by a well-balanced offense with QB Fernando Mendoza under center and a host of running backs, the Hoosiers are proving they aren’t a flash in the pan.

His HEISMENDOZA moment 🏆👀

Relive @indianafootball's game-winning drive lead by Fernando Mendoza 🔥 pic.twitter.com/StuhB4724R

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 8, 2025

Mendoza has passed for 2,641 yards, 30 touchdowns, and five interceptions on 73% completions. He’s also rushed for 216 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Mendoza is regarded as the top Heisman pick for many pundits. I have it as a toss-up with Sayin, but it’s hard to argue against Mendoza after he directed Indiana down the field for a game-winning drive against Penn State on the road.

He’s found a rhythm with WR Omar Cooper Jr. and WR Elijah Sarratt. They’re delivering consistently and are massive weapons in the red zone, with 10 touchdowns each. Have Indiana played an elite defense yet, though?

The Oregon Ducks are one of the better units in football and the Hoosiers went into Eugene for a 30-20 victory in a hostile environment in mid-October. Since that win, Indiana avoided a letdown with wins over Michigan State, 38-13, UCLA, 56-6, Maryland, 55-10, Penn State, 27-24, and Wisconsin, 31-7. The win over Penn State was a Heisman defining moment for Mendoza.

You can certainly Indiana’s defense has risen to the occasion as well. They are third in the FBS, as Curt Cignetti’s defense has held opponents to 12.8 points per game. The Hoosiers are fourth, having allowed 266.2 yards a game this season. LB Rolijah Hardy has been tormenting quarterbacks with seven sacks, while DL Tyrique Tucker chipped in with 5.5 sacks this season.

In the secondary, CB Louis Moore has been involved at all levels as a pass defender and tackler. In other words, they are getting contributions all over the field. Combined with a consistent, well-balanced offense, Indiana’s season isn’t a fluke. I don’t know if they have enough weapons to keep pace with Ohio State, though!

Texas A&M Aggies – Can the Aggies Play Spoiler?

• Head Coach: Mike Elko
• 2024-25 Record: 8-5 (Loss Las Vegas Bowl)
• National Titles: 3
• Key Players: Marcel Reed (QB), Reuben Owens II (RB), KP Concepcion (WR), Mario Craver (WR), Cashius Howell (DE), Daymion Sanford (LB)

The Texas A&M Aggies are the only undefeated team remaining in the SEC. With a perfect 10-0 record, they top the standings in the ultra-competitive conference, ahead of both the Georgia Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels after a dramatic comeback against the South Carolina Gamecocks.

Down 30-3 at halftime, Texas A&M stormed back to win 31-30, marking the biggest comeback in school history and one of the SEC’s largest in nearly two decades. This game can be seen two ways: either Texas A&M allowed a poor South Carolina team to build a 30-3 lead, or you tip your cap to their improbable comeback.

Would Ohio State or Indiana have found themselves needing to overcome a 27-point deficit? Probably not. Even so, Texas A&M features playmakers on both sides of the ball and is capable of beating any opponent in the country. Aggies’ quarterback Marcel Reed stands out as one of the FBS’s most dynamic playmakers.

Another one pic.twitter.com/K289za5FhU

— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) November 15, 2025

Reed has been impressive as a dual-threat, passing for 2,632 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight interceptions on 61.5% completions. His running ability makes him even more dangerous; he’s rushed for 391 yards and six touchdowns on 5.1 yards per carry.

Reed’s passing arsenal includes two top wide receivers, KP Concepcion and Mario Carver, both surpassing 700 yards on the season. Running back Rueben Owens II averages 5.8 yards per carry, rounding out a balanced attack. Overall, the Aggies rank 11th in the FBS with 464.3 yards per game.

Defensively, powered by Cashius Howell off the edge, Texas A&M has allowed fewer than 200 passing yards per game. However, their rush defense could pose concerns in the playoffs, as they have given up 128.7 yards per game.

Earlier this season, I picked Texas A&M as a longshot bet for the CFP National Championship at +2500. Though the current odds are shorter at +650 and offering mediocre value, the Aggies remain a dangerous squad.