CFP National Championship 2025-26 Odds: Hook ‘em Horns?

CFP National Championship 2025-26 Odds: Hook ‘em Horns?

As teams continue their preparations for the upcoming football season, the 2025-26 College Football Championship odds are available! The futures markets suggest we should have a competitive season in the first year of the 12-team playoff.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are favored to repeat, but the Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions aren’t far behind. Let’s evaluate the latest CFP odds and analyze the top favorites before I share my College Football Championship predictions.


College Football Championship 2025-26 Betting Odds

The following CFP National Championship odds are courtesy of Bovada:

TEAM ODDS
Texas Longhorns +525
Penn State Nittany Lions +600
Ohio State Buckeyes +700
Georgia Bulldogs +700
Alabama Crimson Tide +1000
Clemson Tigers +1200
LSU Tigers +1500
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1500
Oregon Ducks +1500
Texas A&M Aggies +2800

With Week 1 only days away from kickoff, the Texas Longhorns (+525) continue to lead at the best NCAAF sportsbooks. As a +525 favorite, Texas has a 16% implied probability to win the national championship in 2025-26.

This is a shift from the college football championship odds in July, when the Ohio State Buckeyes, currently at +700, had the best price at +600. Now, Ohio State’s CFP Championship odds have slipped to the third-shortest in a tie with the Georgia Bulldogs (+700).

The Penn State Nittany Lions (+600) are on the move, as only the Longhorns have shorter odds. In mid-August, Penn State was +800 for the fourth-shortest odds alongside the Clemson Tigers (+1200). The Nittany Lions’ odds have improved, while Clemson has regressed since then.

You can find updated CFP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NCAA Football Futures > National Championship.

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2025-26 College Football Championship Favorites

Before revealing my best CFP National Championship picks, let’s break down the leading betting favorites:

Texas Longhorns – Has Arch’s Time Arrived?

    • Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
    • 2024-25 Record: 13-3 (Loss CFP to Ohio State)
    • National Titles: 9
    • Key Players: Arch Manning (QB), CJ Baxter (RB), Ryan Wingo (WR), Anthony Hill Jr. (LB), Colin Simmons (LB)

The Arch Manning era finally begins in Austin, as the Texas Longhorns embark on a new season with unbelievably high expectations. There hasn’t been this much pressure on the Texas football program since Colt McCoy was in college.

There is always pressure on Texas, but I can’t remember a year where there was so much buzz in the air. It’s largely due to Manning getting his first opportunity in the Texas’ offense. Quinn Ewers is in the NFL now, so the QB1 job is all Manning’s in 2025-26.

When Manning had the chance in relief duties last year, he looked fantastic in the pocket. Manning passed for nine touchdowns and two interceptions on 67.8% passing. It was a good chance for him to get his feet wet, and his numbers will explode in his first year as a starter. And, oh yeah, unlike Peyton and Eli, Arch can run.

The 6’4”, 225-pound quarterback should instantly find chemistry with WR Ryan Wingo. Wingo saw limited action last year as a freshman but looked outstanding when he was on the field. He and DeAndre Moore Jr. will cause havoc in the secondary against defenses this season. Also, offensive lineman DJ Campbell and junior TE Jake Endries were added to the Lombardi Award Preseason Watch List.

Defensively, Texas is well-equipped with a strong linebacker core. All-American Anthony Hill Jr. is back alongside Liona Lefau and Trey Moore. Edge rusher Colin Simmons gives Texas a strong presence in the sacks department, and he’s capable of running down runners and dropping back in coverage. This has a solid chance to be the best defense up front in the nation.

The defense includes two players who were recently added to the Lombardi Award Watch List. Hill Sr. and Simmons are both on the list and are projected to create monster stat lines in 2025.

Texas’ NIL budget is the largest in the country, with a roughly $35 to $40 million available! There is no shortage of donor money to go around in Austin, and it will ultimately help propel the Longhorns into a powerhouse this season. Expect them to build on a solid year and into the upper echelon of college football in 2025-26.

Penn State Nittany Lions – Best Team in the Big Ten?

    • Head Coach: James Franklin
    • 2024-25 Record: 13-3 (Loss CFP to Notre Dame)
    • National Titles: 2
    • Key Players: Nicholas Singleton (RB), Kaytron Allen (RB), Drew Allar (QB), Dani Dennis-Sutton (DE), Zane Durant (DT)

Penn State might be the sneakiest pick on the board to win the CFP National Championship. They aren’t getting as much attention as Texas, Ohio State, or even Georgia, but Penn State’s odds are rising while the latter two teams have sunk slightly.

This is an incredibly well-balanced group with playmakers on both sides of the ball. Led by a vaunted running attack, the offense is going to move the ball on most defenses this season. RB Nicholas Singleton and RB Kaytron Allen are set to be a two-headed beast in the backfield for the Nittany Lions.

Singleton is coming off a standout junior season with 1,099 yards and 12 touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry. He is expected to breach career-highs out of the backfield this season. The senior also collected 41 receptions, 375 yards, and five scores as a receiver.

Allen joins Singleton, who is also going to be a massive threat as a runner. He led the Nittany Lions with 1,108 yards, eight touchdowns, and five yards per carry. I’m confident that Singleton and Allen will lead Penn State to well over 2,000 yards rushing.

Along with a stacked backfield, Penn State brings an experienced signal caller onto the field in 2025-26. QB Drew Allar heads into his senior season and third as the starter with a plethora of experience. Allar is coming off a career-high 3,327 yards and a 66.5% completion rate in 2024-25. He passed for 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

The defense is going to be especially stout as well. In 2024-25, Penn State finished fifth in total yards allowed with 295.1. They were in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed and 28th against the pass.

Power rusher DE Abdul Carter is off to the NFL, but DE Dani Dennis-Sutton should do a solid job replacing him. DT Zane Durant should also be a menace in the middle of the defense.

The secondary is well-equipped with safety Zakee Wheatley looming. He’s coming off a stellar performance in the CFP and earned All-Big Ten honors. Expect Wheatley to take an extra leap and develop into an elite safety this season.

I’m not surprised to see Penn State’s CFP odds improving, as this is a dangerous squad and possibly has the edge over Ohio State in the Big Ten.

Ohio State Buckeyes – Dynasty in Progress?

    • Head Coach: Ryan Day
    • 2024-25 Record: 14-2 (National Champions)
    • National Titles: 9
    • Key Players: Julian Sayin (QB), Jeremiah Smith (WR), Carnell Tate (WR), Caleb Downs (S), Sonny Styles (LB)

After sitting on the hot seat for a couple of years, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day finally finished the job and led the Buckeyes to a national title. Entering the eight-team College Football Playoff as a No. 8 seed, Ohio State defeated Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame in the championship.

QB Will Howard was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the sixth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. That leaves a new quarterback to fill the void in Columbus. Fortunately, the Buckeyes appear to have a good one in QB Julian Sayin. It should be plug-and-play with him at the controls.

The former 5-star Alabama commit has sky-high expectations heading into his first year as the Buckeyes’ QB1. Fortunately, for Sayin, he has a wealth of talent to work with.

Star WR Jeremiah Smith is back after a standout freshman campaign.

Smith caught 76 receptions for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2024. He’s on pace to be one of the best wide receivers in college football this season. Paired with Carnell Tate, it’s going to be hard for Sayin to have a bad season. Along with Smith and Tate, the Buckeyes have three receivers on the 2025 Biletnikoff Preseason Watch List! Additionally, TE Max Klare is on the Mackey Award Watch List for the best tight end in the nation.

On the downside, RB TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Jenkins are off to the NFL, so there is a need in the backfield.Nevertheless, James Peoples and CJ Donaldson are likely to develop into a formidable tandem. The offensive line should be stout in the interior with Luke Montgomery, Carson Hinzman, and Tegra Tshabola. Overall, Ohio State was 14th in the NCAA, with 35.7 points per game. Expect a similar figure in 2025-26.

Likewise, Ohio State’s defense is expected to be talented at all levels on the field. Safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles are worth keeping a close look at this season. The Buckeyes’ defense was stout en route to their national title. They led the nation by conceding 254.6 yards per game and 12.8 points per game.

There was one moment in training camp when Eddrick Houston had the coaching staff holding their collective breaths. In what appeared like a potentially serious injury, Houston was diagnosed with a minor knee injury, so he should be fine for Week 1.

Named to the Outland Trophy watchlist for this season, Houston’s absence would be a big loss. Four defensive linemen departed for the NFL in the offseason, so Houston failing to reach 100% would loom large in Columbus.

If Sayin doesn’t have any major hiccups, the Buckeyes are going to be flying again this season. With elite targets at his disposal, the QB is in the perfect situation and is essentially getting the keys to a Ferrari. He should put up numbers while Ohio State competes for another national title. The depth on the defensive line is my only real concern.

Georgia Bulldogs – Back to the Top of College Football?

    • Head Coach: Kirby Smart
    • 2024-25 Record: 11-3 (Loss CFP to Notre Dame)
    • National Titles: 4
    • Key Players: Gunner Stockton (QB), Nate Frazier (RB), CJ Allen (LB), Christen Miller (DL), Daylen Everette (CB)

The Georgia Bulldogs won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022. While they’ve been a threat over the last two years, the Bulldogs lost some of their prowess. Last season, Georgia lost to Notre Dame in a 23-10 final in the quarterfinals.

The offense was spotty and unable to find much traction with QB Carson Beck at the helm. Beck was underwhelming in a season he went into as one of the Heisman Trophy favorites. Georgia is in the midst of a quarterback battle, but it appears that Gunner Stockton will start Week 1.

Despite Georgia being scheduled to play Marshall in less than a week, head coach Kirby Smart hasn’t named the starter. It’s highly likely for Stockton to get the nod, though we could see two quarterbacks on the field for the opening week.

Stockton served as Beck’s backup in his second collegiate season. He has little experience, with three touchdowns and two interceptions in two years. Nevertheless, Stockton is likely Georgia’s best option over redshirt freshmen Ryan Puglisi and Colter Ginn.

Along with a new quarterback, the wide receiver room will be different this season. Everything could come together in Athens, but there are far too many question marks for the Bulldogs’ offense. RB Nate Frazier must play a huge role for Georgia to have success.

Known for developing elite tight ends, Georgia has two on the Mackey Award Watch List with TE Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie.

Where I am confident is on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, the Bulldogs weren’t the usual lock down unit on defense we’ve become accustomed to, but there is reason to be optimistic. Georgia finished 24th, with 21.9 points allowed per game. They were also 53rd against the pass, so it wasn’t perfect for a defense that typically is extremely hard to break.

Still, expect Georgia to get back to basics and look like more of a top 10 defense in 2025. They have playmakers at all levels, including linebacker CJ Allen, defensive lineman Christen Miller, and cornerback Daylen Everette. The defense should show improvement, but the offense could be hit or miss!


CFP National Championship Longshot Bets

12 teams are eligible for the College Football Playoff, so anything could happen this year! Upsets are a big part of the sport, and there are a couple of teams I could see playing a major role despite their high CFP National Championship odds:

  1. 1. LSU Tigers (+1500)

    LSU hired Brian Kelly in 2021 to turn the Tigers into a national powerhouse again after the program floundered following Joe Burrow’s exit in 2020. Kelly hasn’t fulfilled that demand, but there are some reasons to feel optimistic this year.

    QB Garrett Nussmeier returns to LSU for his senior season in Baton Rouge. Nussmeier had a solid campaign in his first year under center. He passed for 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. I think Nussmeier should be able to build on that year and continue gaining consistency with WR Aaron Anderson.

    However, the biggest reason to feel good about LSU is their improvement in the secondary. The defense was getting torched, especially early in the year, before finding some traction. Safety DaShawn Spears and Jardin Gilbert are expected to step up, while I have confidence in cornerback PJ Woodland being a difference-maker.

    Expect LSU to clinch a spot in the playoffs as the No. 8 to No. 10 seed. They’ll have a few losses on their resume, but the strength of schedule will be to their benefit. LSU’s odds to win the CFP have dropped from +1800 to +1500 in recent weeks. I locked in LSU at +1800, but they are still worth considering at +1500!

  2. 2. Florida Gators (+4000)

    There wasn’t another team in the nation that impressed quite as much toward the end of the season as the Florida Gators. With zero expectations in 2024-25, Florida finished 8-5 and went on a four-game win streak to end the year.

    Head coach Billy Napier has changed the culture, and his team is answering on the football field. QB DJ Lagway is going to be a name to keep tabs on this season. He should make electric plays often after a promising freshman campaign.

    The quarterback is operating behind a stout and powerful offensive line that should give him time to pass in the pocket to find elite freshman WR Dallas Wilson.

    Additionally, a strong defensive line and secondary are likely to offer Lagway solid field position throughout the 2025-26 season. If the linebackers can exceed expectations, the Gators can evolve from a good to a great unit.

    At +4000 odds, I’ll take a flier for my College Football Championship picks on a team entering the year with mountains of confidence!


2025-26 CFP National Championship Predictions and Betting Pick

The Manning family name doesn’t need any more accolades to solidify itself as one of the greatest football clans of all time. And yet, I think Arch is on the verge of doing just that with the Longhorns in 2025-26.

Peyton’s nephew is in for a monster year and should be the catalyst for a fantastic season in Austin. He won’t have to do it all alone, either.

Manning, Wingo, and Moore Jr. are going to make plenty of noise together in the passing game. It’s going to open up Manning to rip off big runs on the read option and to Baxter in the backfield.

We can praise the offense for days, but the defense may prove to be the MVP. Running the ball on Texas will prove to be a nightmare for offenses. Their defensive line is a force and is constantly going to create plays against running backs and generate pressure on quarterbacks.

There are a few excellently well-balanced teams in the nation this season. You can make the argument for Penn State and Ohio State as well, but Manning and Texas’ presence in the defensive box will be deciding factors.

In late June, I took the fantastic value on the Longhorns at +650. In early August, their price shortened to +550, and their college football championship odds continue to improve.

Now, with a price of +525, oddsmakers continue to favor the Longhorns. I like Penn State to cause a lot of noise, but Manning should be the difference in the CFP!

The Bet
Texas Longhorns
+525


Where to Bet on the 2025-26 CFP National Championship?

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About the Author
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Kyle Eve
Editor-in-Chief
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Kyle Eve is Editor-in-Chief of The Sports Geek, providing reliable analysis for millions of readers since joining the team in 2012. After placing his first sports bet on his 18th birthday, Kyle has devoted his entire adult life to becoming the best bettor he can be. He’s covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world, from the Super Bowl and World Series to the NBA Finals and Kentucky Derby. Kyle lives in Windsor, Ontario.
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