As the final two teams converge on Hard Rock Stadium, the 2026 CFP Championship odds suggest a clear favorite after a dominant season. The Indiana Hoosiers enter enemy territory in Miami, but online sportsbooks still give Curt Cignetti’s squad a considerable edge.
In this article, I break down the latest odds, analyze the matchup, and share my CFP Championship predictions.
CFP National Championship 2026 Odds
Here are updated CFP Championship betting odds, courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
| TEAM | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Hurricanes | +7.5 (-116) | +245 | Over 47 (-112) |
| Indiana Hoosiers | -7.5 (-105) | -315 | Under 47 (-108) |
The Indiana Hoosiers (-315) are odds-on favorites to win the CFP National Championship. Top NCAAF betting sites give Indiana a 75.9% implied probability of securing their first national title. However, that is down from 77.5% last week, when the Hoosiers were priced at -345.
Indiana University has fielded a football program since 1899, but has never captured the coveted championship.
With the point spread sitting just over a touchdown, oddsmakers and bettors are showing faith in the Hoosiers against the Miami Hurricanes. Miami returns to the national title stage for the first time since 2001, when the Hurricanes claimed their fifth championship in school history.
While Indiana routed Oregon in the semifinals, Miami needed a last-minute score to get past a pesky Ole Miss squad. The Hoosiers’ dominant win over the Ducks, combined with a Big Ten Championship victory over Ohio State, has pushed public sentiment firmly in Indiana’s favor.
You can find up-to-date odds to win the CFP National Championship at Lucky Rebel by navigating to Sports > Football > National Championship.
2026 CFP National Championship Betting Preview
Before diving into my CFP National Championship picks, let’s evaluate each roster and how they stack up for the final showdown on Monday, January 19:
Indiana Hoosiers – Fairy-Tale Run to Be Completed?
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- Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
- 2025-26 Record: 15-0 (Big Ten Champs)
- National Titles: 0
- Key Players: Fernando Mendoza (QB), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR), Elijah Sarratt (WR), Louis Moore (CB), Rolijah Hardy (LB)
The Indiana Hoosiers entered the 2025-26 season as huge longshots without any bettors giving them much attention. They entered the campaign as +10000 underdogs, representing a shift from 1% to 75.9% from pre-season to the National Championship game.
With a victory, the Hoosiers would be the first program in 25 years to beat such odds to win the CFP Championship.
There aren’t many people outside of Bloomington that knew who Fernando Mendoza was before this season. However, he has everyone’s attention now after a fantastic season that saw him win the Heisman Trophy and lead Indiana to the Big Ten title. Combined with an elite defense, the Hoosiers are a win away from a perfect year.
Offense
If you didn’t know who Mendoza was before the semifinals, you know now. The Miami native is coming off a stellar performance, throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions against Oregon.
Many believe that was the moment Mendoza solidified himself as the No. 1 pick of the 2026 NFL Draft. In addition to three touchdowns versus Alabama, Mendoza has been on fire in the College Football Playoff against other opponents, too.
The quarterback has delivered time and time again, including beating Oregon at Autzen in the regular season and a 13-10 win to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
Overall, he has passed for 3,349 yards, 41 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 73% passing in an incredible campaign. In the CFP, Mendoza has tossed eight touchdowns with no interceptions versus Oregon and Alabama.
"We're a bunch of misfits!"
— ESPN (@espn) January 10, 2026
Fernando Mendoza was HYPED to advance to the CFP natty 🔥 pic.twitter.com/wX5yVNVobi
He’s worked the ball around to various weapons, with it being a wide-open offensive attack led by WR Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarrett.
Sarrett leads the Hoosiers with 15 receiving touchdowns, while Cooper Jr. is ahead in receiving yards at 866 yards to go with 13 scores. Additionally, the 1-2 punch of RB Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black spearheads a running game averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Overall, Indiana ranks third in the FBS, averaging 41.6 points per game. They’ve done this in a tough Big Ten, which makes this season in Bloomington even more impressive. Indiana’s well-balanced offense will challenge the Hurricanes’ aggressive defense.
Defense
Mendoza gets the spotlight and accolades, but the defense deserves a ton of respect as well. Indiana’s defense was responsible for locking down Ohio State in a three-point win in the Big Ten title game.
Shutting down an offense that features receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate isn’t easy, but the Hoosiers had a clear game plan, as they have all year.
Oregon scored 22 points in the semifinals, but the game was already out of hand, and most of the Ducks’ yards came in garbage time. Their elite offense was held to just seven points in a 35-7 halftime deficit.
If that isn’t enough, Indiana’s defense made Alabama’s offense look overmatched in the CFP opener. QB Ty Simpson led the Crimson Tide with only 17 rushing yards in a 38-3 final.
Between Simpson and QB Austin Mack, Alabama managed just 170 passing yards. The Hoosiers have now shut down some of the best offenses in the nation.
LB Rolijah Hardy has taken on a huge role in multiple areas, especially as a pass-rusher. He’s recorded 99 tackles and eight sacks to lead Indiana. With defensive linemen Tyrique Tucker and Stephen Daley, the Hoosiers rank 11th nationally with 2.9 sacks per game.
Indiana LB Rolijah Hardy showed up BIG on the biggest stage.
— HOOSIER HEADLINES (@HoosierHeads) December 14, 2025
Blowing up runs in the backfield, collapsing the pocket, and forcing key pass breakups with the game on the line.
His development under Bryant Haines has been remarkable. Former zero star recruit out of Lakeland, FL… pic.twitter.com/qJ8d8bkrjT
In the secondary, they’ve gotten big production from defensive backs Louis Moore, Amare Ferrell, Devan Boykin, and D’Angelo Ponds. Indiana ranks in the top 10 with 1.3 interceptions per game.
The secondary disguises their coverages so well that it confuses opponents on a weekly basis. Hurricanes’ QB Carson Beck needs to do his homework before kickoff, or it could be a long night.
Miami Hurricanes – Is “The U” Back?
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- Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
- 2025-26 Record: 13-2
- National Titles: 5
- Key Players: Carson Beck (QB), Mark Fletcher Jr. (RB), Malachi Toney (WR), Akeem Mesidor (DL), Reuben Bain Jr. (DL)
It has been over two decades since Miami was consistently feared by opposing teams. The likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Clinton Portis, and Jeremy Shockey come to mind as players who defined Miami football.
25 years later, the Hurricanes have returned to the national stage with a chance to win their sixth championship. They are underdogs against the red-hot Hoosiers, but they haven’t been playing like a +250 long shot recently.
Miami is coming off a 24-14 win over the pre-playoff favorite Ohio State Buckeyes and a 31-27 thriller against a surging Ole Miss squad. With the CFP National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami also has the added bonus of home-field advantage.
Offense
Carson Beck’s career at Georgia is going to largely be viewed as a failure. He was unable to follow Stetson Bennett’s career to deliver a national championship to Athens. As a fifth-year senior in Miami, Beck has gotten the furthest he’s ever reached in his career.
Despite his critics, Beck had a solid season and came through in the clutch on the final drive against Ole Miss. Beck threw two touchdowns and ran for a score en route to the 31-27 win.
Carson Beck just earned his NIL money pic.twitter.com/q2DcAAyxJA
— The Sports Geek (@TheSports_Geek) January 9, 2026
He has thrown for 3,581 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while completing 73.3% of his passes. After a rocky outing with four interceptions against Louisville on October 17, he looked like an entirely different quarterback. Over his last nine games, Beck has tossed 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions, entering this matchup in top form.
The backfield is anchored by Mark Fletcher Jr., the Hurricanes’ workhorse. Fletcher is putting together a strong campaign, rushing for 1,080 yards and 10 touchdowns on 5.4 yards per carry.
Indiana has been stout against the run, but if Fletcher Jr. can consistently find lanes, it should be enough to soften the front and open up the secondary for Beck downfield.
WR Malachi Toney gives Miami a dynamic weapon in the passing game and a versatile option on the ground. The freshman has hauled in 99 receptions for 1,089 yards and 10 touchdowns. With six scores in his last six contests, including a key touchdown against Ole Miss, Toney continues to elevate his game.
Miami’s 31.6 points per game rank 30th in the FBS, 10 points shy of Indiana’s output. Even so, the Hurricanes have grown more dangerous as the season has progressed, and Beck is playing the best football of his career right now.
Defense
Miami’s defense is predicated on its pass rush, led by defensive linemen Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. Mesidor and Bain Jr. have combined for 19 sacks, powering one of the most dangerous defensive lines in the nation.
Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. are one of the most dangerous pass rushing duos in the nation 😳 @CanesFootball pic.twitter.com/GwJtxfz4UF
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) January 8, 2026
The Hurricanes rank third in the country, averaging 3.2 sacks per game. Aside from a long run by RB Kewan Lacy, Miami’s defense turned in a strong performance against an explosive Ole Miss offense. QB Trinidad Chambliss is tough to contain and slippery in the pocket, similar to Mendoza, but Miami handled him well.
Allowing just 14 points per game, Miami ranks in the top five nationally, putting its defense in contention with Indiana. The Hurricanes have recorded 1.1 sacks per game, giving them a slight disadvantage behind the Hoosiers in that specific category.
Generating a consistent pass rush on Mendoza is absolutely necessary to beat Indiana. He needs to be uncomfortable and feel pressure to disrupt his rhythm.
Miami is one of the few teams with the talent to get after Mendoza and potentially knock him out of his groove. There aren’t many defenses in the nation that can do that, but the Hurricanes have the workhorses to succeed.
CFP National Championship 2026 Predictions and Betting Pick
In a matchup that no one projected at the start of the season, Indiana and Miami are one win away from finishing atop the college football mountain. There is a solid case to be made for both sides on January 19. The Hoosiers have the advantage with the Heisman winner, but I’m not excited about laying 7.5 points.
With the game being hosted in Miami, the Hurricanes will have home-field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium. Indiana fans will undoubtedly travel, but support in Miami should favor the Hurricanes. If the defense can feed off the crowd, the pass rush will likely have that extra push it needs to frustrate Mendoza just enough.
You have to believe that Beck enters this game with a chip on his shoulder. Leading up to the game, all the talk will be about Mendoza. Beck has also been criticized throughout his career for not being able to push the Bulldogs over the top. I expect him to be locked in, as he has been since mid-October.
In summary, I will side with Miami +7.5 for my best 2026 CFP Championship pick.
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