CFP National Championship 2025-26 Odds: Are the Hoosiers the Pick?

Indiana Hoosiers – Heisman to National Champions?

• • Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
  • 2025-26 Record: 14-0 (Big Ten Champs)
  • National Titles: 0
  • Key Players: Fernando Mendoza (QB), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR), Elijah Sarratt (WR), Louis Moore (CB), Rolijah Hardy (LB)

If the Indiana Hoosiers had any doubters before, that has all but been put to rest after they throttled the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl. In a 38-3 blowout, Heisman Trophy winner QB Fernando Mendoza tossed three touchdowns and didn’t show any hangover after capturing the top individual honor in New York City.

Mendoza played a mistake-free game, while RB Kalon Black was productive on the ground with 99 yards and a score. As has been the case throughout the season, the defense turned in a stout performance as well. The Hoosiers chased Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson from the game in favor of backup Austin Mack in what was a rough outing for the Alabama offense.

Alabama blitzed Fernando Mendoza a season-high 12 times.

He was 8-8 for 161 yards and 3 TD against 5 or more pass rushers, the first QB with 3 pass TD vs the Alabama blitz since Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel in 2013 👏 pic.twitter.com/PK5ALouwUE

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) January 2, 2026

This isn’t anything new, as the Hoosiers have been putting together games like this all season. Now, one of the premier SEC programs has learned that Indiana can play football as well. The Hoosiers are a well-balanced operation, capable of winning games behind their Heisman-winning quarterback or their lockdown defense.

Indiana ranks third in the nation, allowing an average of 266.1 yards per game. They are especially stout in the box against the run, giving up just 76.4 rushing yards per game this season. Running the ball with LB Rolijah Hardy patrolling the defense is a tough task for any offense.

With the run stoppers stepping up, the only viable way to attack Indiana is through the air. Even there, the Hoosiers are solid, allowing 189.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 21st in the FBS. Otherwise, Indiana sports an immaculate reputation on both sides of the ball. No, there is nothing flukey about the Hoosiers’ success.

Miami Hurricanes – Is “The U” Back?

• Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
• 2025-26 Record: 12-2
• National Titles: 5
• Key Players: Carson Beck (QB), Mark Fletcher Jr. (RB), Malachi Toney (WR), Akeem Mesidor (DL), Reuben Bain Jr. (DL)

In a shocking quarterfinal result, the Miami Hurricanes upset the Ohio State Buckeyes, 24-14. After Ohio State cut the lead to 17–14, Miami responded with a late touchdown to finish off the favored Buckeyes.

Although Jeremy Shockey, Clinton Portis, and Ray Lewis won’t be on the field in the semifinals, this new era of Hurricanes football is providing the most excitement in Miami since the early 2000s. Former Georgia QB Carson Beck has been the target of criticism throughout his career, but the Bulldogs are done and Miami marches on.

Beck has passed for 3,313 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in a solid campaign. He is supported by two elite playmakers: RB Mark Fletcher Jr. and WR Malachi Toney. Fletcher Jr. has rushed for 947 yards and 10 touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry. Toney, a freshman, is a threat in the passing game and is routinely featured in the ground game as well.

Statistically, Miami doesn’t stack up with the rest of the remaining teams. The Hurricanes rank 49th nationally with 394.2 yards per game this season. They aren’t particularly explosive offensively, but the defense does a strong job generating turnovers and setting Beck up with prime field position.

Rueben Bain Jr. 1 SCK. 2 TFL, 4 TKL vs Ohio State College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Today.pic.twitter.com/p0LcP1ffoG https://t.co/MsT5LN2Ifi

— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) January 1, 2026

With 3.4 sacks per game, the Hurricanes rank third in college football. Pass rushers Akeem Mesidor and Reuben Bain Jr. are game-wreckers with the talent to flip a matchup on its head. After bullying the Ohio State offensive line in the quarterfinals, they’re capable of doing it again.

Overall, Miami ranks 10th in the FBS, allowing 292.3 yards per game. As long as the pass rush is getting home, the Hurricanes will continue to make life difficult for opposing offenses. Miami may not be the safest option for your CFP Championship picks, but this team will fight to the end regardless of the opponent.

Oregon Ducks – Revenge for the Ducks?

• Head Coach: Dan Lanning
• 2025-26 Record: 13-1
• National Titles: 0
• Key Players: Dante Moore (QB), Jordon Davison (RB), Kenyon Sadiq (TE), Dillion Thieneman (DB), Teitum Tuioti (LB)

The Oregon Ducks have one blemish on their resume, and it came at home against the current top favorite in the 2026 CFP National Championship odds. On October 11, Indiana went into Autzen Stadium in Eugene and came away with a 30-20 win. The Hoosiers delivered a message, but can they do it twice in one season against Oregon?

Since that loss, Oregon has won eight consecutive games, seven of them by double digits. In their most impressive showing yet, they blanked Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl to advance to the Peach Bowl. Oregon rolled over the Red Raiders for a 23-0 victory, which may not jump off the page at first glance, but Texas Tech wasn’t a pushover.

The Red Raiders were only a two-point underdog and entered the quarterfinals on a six-game winning streak. Oregon’s defense completely confused Red Raiders’ QB Behren Morton, holding him to 137 passing yards and forcing two interceptions. The Ducks are fully capable of repeating that type of performance against the Hoosiers.

Oregon ranks fourth nationally in total defense, allowing an average of 269.2 yards per game. With Ohio State out of the playoff picture, the Ducks are the top-rated team in the nation against the pass, surrendering just 153.4 passing yards per game in 2025-26. Their work against Morton is indicative of their potential in the semifinals and possibly beyond.

Dante Moore knows what the scouts and General Managers are looking for

He’s out there making NFL-level, NFL-style throws

Look at this back shoulder right here

This is a smooth, savvy veteran-type throw by Moore
pic.twitter.com/uT9VO9H6K3

— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) January 1, 2026

Additionally, Oregon QB Dante Moore might be the most NFL-ready quarterback in the CFP. Moore has thrown for 3,280 yards with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions, completing 72.9% of his passes. He’s also elusive in the pocket, adding 184 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. With RB Jordon Davison and RB Noah Whittington in the backfield, Oregon’s offense is built to beat any team.

Despite having the third-best CFP Championship betting odds, you should consider Oregon a co-favorite alongside Miami.

Mississippi Rebels – No Lane, No Problem?

• Head Coach: Pete Golding
• 2025-26 Record: 13-1
• National Titles: 3
• Key Players: Trinidad Chambliss (QB), Kewan Lacy (RB), Harrison Wallace III (WR), TJ Dottery (LB), Will Echolos (DT)

Despite losing head coach Lane Kiffin after he accepted the LSU job, the Ole Miss Rebels have reached the final four. Prior to defeating the Georgia Bulldogs 39–34, Ole Miss had +2500 odds to win the CFP National Championship.

Playing with plenty of confidence and undeterred by Kiffin’s exit, Ole Miss is locked in. Fully aware they’re playing with house money, the Rebels have nothing to lose and can play a carefree game. That’s exactly what QB Trinidad Chambliss is doing as he continues to impress.

LEGENDARY PERFORMANCE FROM TRINIDAD CHAMBLISS 😤 🇹🇹 @OleMissFB pic.twitter.com/Mq2ixsDEcm

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) January 2, 2026

Chambliss passed for 362 yards and two touchdowns against Georgia’s defense in the Sugar Bowl. The former Ferris State quarterback is on fire after one of the most efficient seasons in college football. He has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three starts. Overall, Chambliss has tossed just three interceptions against 21 touchdowns in 2025-26.

Kiffin’s departure has only seemed to motivate Chambliss to play harder, and the same can be said for the rest of the team. With two Division II titles at Ferris State, he’s tasted success on a national stage already in his career. Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy can combine to dice up any of the three remaining squads in the College Football Playoff. Lacy is on a tear, gashing defenses for 1,464 yards and 23 touchdowns.

The concern for Ole Miss is whether the defense can hold up, though there’s a case to be made after the Rebels came up clutch against Georgia. Ole Miss ranks 46th in the FBS, allowing an average of 358.8 yards per game. The secondary has been solid enough, but the run defense is vulnerable, surrendering more than 150 rushing yards per game, which ranks 66th nationally.

It’s going to be difficult for Ole Miss, but it’s hard to fade a team playing with this much confidence. I grabbed Ole Miss at +2500 to win the College Football Playoff National Championship and still feel strongly about that value. While I’m not as confident at a shorter price of +600, Ole Miss absolutely has a chance.