FCS Championship 2025 Preview: Illinois State vs. Montana State Predictions

Illinois State Redbirds: Can They Shock the FCS Again?

Illinois State pulled off the most surprising moment of the FCS season in the second round of the playoffs. In a stunning road victory, the Redbirds knocked off North Dakota State, 29-28, in a thriller. North Dakota State entered as a massive 24.5-point favorite and -3500 on the moneyline.

Following the upset, Illinois State got past UC Davis, 42-31, and Villanova, 30-14. They’ve been playing their best football of the season despite losing four games in the regular season, a mediocre campaign that kept them off the radar heading into the playoffs.

Illinois State’s FCS Championship odds weren’t even in the top 10 and were longer than +5000. They entered the postseason on the heels of a 37-7 loss to Southern Illinois. It was looking bleak, but they’ve gotten red-hot at the perfect time. QB Tommy Rittenhouse has been the catalyst, and despite an up and down performance against North Dakota State, has thrived overall.

OH MY GOODNESS🫨

Tommy Rittenhouse connects with Daniel Sobkowicz to put 6️⃣ on the board for @RedbirdFB #FCSPlayoffs x 🎥 ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/zbxlU8fIau

— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) December 6, 2025

Rittenhouse has passed for 3,257 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on 64% completions. He’s also rushed for 408 yards and seven touchdowns at four yards per carry. The senior quarterback overcame five interceptions versus the Bison to eke out the one-point win. Since then, Rittenhouse has thrown five touchdowns to just one interception.

His 3,257 passing yards rank sixth in the FCS. However, the Redbirds’ 30.6 points per game rank only 34th, illustrating how heavily they depend on Rittenhouse. If he doesn’t have a spectacular game, it’s going to be tough to keep up with Montana State. Illinois State is unlikely to win a grind-it-out, run-heavy game of attrition against the Bobcats.

The defense has played well in the playoffs but isn’t considered elite. The Redbirds rank 48th in the FCS, allowing 25.1 points per game. Their secondary, in particular, can be exploited as a weak point. Ranked just 99th in the FCS, they’ve allowed 243.2 passing yards per game. As mentioned, I expect this matchup to come down to Rittenhouse’s performance.

Montana State Bobcats: Clear FCS Championship Pick?

A year after falling to North Dakota State in the FCS Championship, the Bobcats return to the big stage. In this matchup, Montana State is a strong betting favorite to finish the job on January 5.

If Illinois State is going to pull the upset, it will need to frustrate Bobcats QB Justin Lamson. Lamson is playing with confidence and rarely makes mistakes. He’s an efficient quarterback who doesn’t force bad throws.

The junior has thrown for 2,982 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just two interceptions on 72% passing. He’s been a tough runner on the ground as well. The dual-threat QB has rushed for 704 yards and 14 touchdowns heading into the FCS title game.

Justin ➡️ Taco for 87 yards!! 🤯

📺 ABC@justin_lamson10 x @DowlerTaco | #BobcatBuilt pic.twitter.com/LJbP7YeHVj

— Montana State Football (@MSUBobcats_FB) December 20, 2025

Montana State also boasts two running backs who have topped 1,000 rushing yards this season, making them extremely difficult to prepare for. RB Adam Jones is averaging 6.2 yards per carry with 15 touchdowns, while RB Julius Davis is at 6.7 yards per carry with eight scores.

Combined with Lamson’s dual-threat ability, this rushing attack will put tremendous stress on Illinois State’s defense. The biggest key for Montana State will be establishing the run, then hitting shots over the top to exploit the Redbirds’ shaky secondary.

The Bobcats’ defense ranks 13th nationally, allowing 319.3 yards per game. They’re also top-10 in scoring defense, giving up just 18 points per game this season. Rittenhouse is at his best when the running game is rolling, but Montana State should be able to clamp down on the Redbirds.

Montana State is on a torrid pace with 92 points over the last two games. They defeated Stephen F. Austin, 44-28, and Montana, 48-23, by double digits en route to another FCS Championship berth. The Redbirds are in tough in this one.