ICC World Test Championship Final 2025 Odds: Australia Repeats?

• South Africa (+260)
• Australia (-240)
• Draw (+1000)

South Africa – Is an Upset Brewing at Lord’s?

• • Head Coach: Shukri Conrad
  • 2023-25 Record: 8-1-3 (69.44%)
  • Best Result: 3rd (2021-2023)
  • Key Players: Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen, Temba Bavuma, Ryan Rickleton

With nothing to lose against Australia, Shukri Conrad’s squad can go into this match feeling loose and without much pressure. Finishing at the top of the qualification table at 8-1-3 and a 69.44% win percentage is enough to make South African fans proud of this group.

Despite finishing with fewer points than England and India, South Africa advanced to the final due to their superior win percentage. They’ve won two of their previous test matches, including an impressive seven-wicket win over England in the ICC Champions Trophy on March 1.

Did you know? 💡

South Africa are on a seven-match winning streak, their second-longest in Test cricket. They had a nine-match run between March 2002 and May 2003 #WTCFinal pic.twitter.com/qHAHd6t4ZT

— Cricbuzz (@cricbuzz) June 9, 2025

South Africa was no match for New Zealand in the knockouts, in a 50-run loss in the ODI format. That being said, their seven-match win streak in test matches holds entering Lord’s. Let’s break down South Africa’s squad and their chances.

Batting Lineup

The Proteas will lean heavily on captain Temba Bavuma in this test showdown. He is the heart and soul of this team on the pitch and in the locker room. If you want to see anyone win, it has to be Bavuma.

The right-handed batsman has scored 3,606 runs on a 37.6 average across 63 matches since he started playing in test matches in 2014! Motivation shouldn’t be a problem for Bavuma, as he might be the most engaged player in this matchup.

Most runs ✅
Highest average (Min. 300 runs) ✅
Joint-most centuries ✅

Temba Bavuma, South Africa's captain, has played a pivotal role in guiding the team to the World Test Championship final 👏#TembaBavuma #WTCFinal pic.twitter.com/WzKObRtRax

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) June 9, 2025

Bavuma will be joined by Ryan Rickleton, who has to play a big role for South Africa as well. Having joined the test circuit in 2022, Rickleton has scored 616 runs on a 41.1 average in 10 matches for the Proteas. Along with Aiden Markram’s talent, South Africa’s top lineup should be in good form.

The depth in this batting lineup is where you start to pause, though. Bavuma and Co. were taking advantage of inferior, lower-tier bowlers in the latest cycle. South Africa may have finished with the highest winning percentage, but the competition level wasn’t as impressive as Australia’s.

Bowling

South Africa invites a couple of rock-solid bowlers to play against Australia at Lord’s. They’re in good hands with the duo of Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen on center stage.

Rabada needs to be in top form if South Africa is going to pull off the upset. The same goes for Jansen, as the Proteas don’t have much room for error against this talented Australian side.

A menacing force across formats, he's the only one with a strike rate below 40 among bowlers with 150+ Test wickets ⚡

At 30, he's already fifth among South Africa's leading Test wicket-takers.

Happy birthday, Kagiso Rabada 🎉 pic.twitter.com/cmObiUCVm2

— ESPNcricinfo (@ESPNcricinfo) May 25, 2025

In 70 matches, Rabada has 7,196 wickets and 327 wickets with an economy rating of 3.34 through 128 innings. The 25-year-old Jansen follows with 1,589 runs and 73 wickets, along with a 3.48 economy rating since his first test match in 2021.

While I’m confident in Rabada and Jansen to deliver, South Africa will ask Lungi Ngidi and Dane Peterson to come up huge. It’s going to be tough against a well-balanced batting lineup for the Aussie side.

Australia – The Test Crown Stays in Oz?

• • Head Coach: Andrew McDonald
  • 2023-25 Record: 13-2-4 (67.54%)
  • Best Result: 1st (2021-2023)
  • Key Players: Steve Smith, Travis Head, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc

Australia returns to the ICC Test Championship Final seeking back-to-back titles after a 209-run drubbing of India in 2023. That was a mightily impressive performance, and if Australia brings the same energy and concentration to the pitch against South Africa, best of luck to the Proteas!

Despite not recording the best win percentage in the 2023-25 cycle, Australia recorded the most points with 154. India and England’s 114 points were the next most scored in the 2023-25 cycle, so Australia was in the clear. I would also put their schedule strength well ahead of South Africa.

Are they the more battle-tested squad, and are they worth considering for your ICC World Test Championship predictions?

Batting Lineup

The dangerous trio of Steve Smith, Travis Head, and Usman Khawaja is going to be a load for Rabada and the South African bowlers to silence. This isn’t the best batting lineup in the world, but Smith back at the number 4 spot and Cameron Green’s arrival make this a potent package.

Rejuvenated Steve Smith is raring to go.

But what's behind his more relaxed approach to nets and batting?

Details: https://t.co/rjRfrwhzCA pic.twitter.com/1nH6zHO8IN

— Cricbuzz (@cricbuzz) June 8, 2025

David Warner’s retirement from international cricket last year was a blow to Australia’s lineup. However, Andrew McDonald’s team is beginning to patch up the holes and look forward to what should be a good final performance versus South Africa.

Since starting test matches in 2010, the 36-year-old Smith has recorded 10,271 runs with a 56.7 average and a high score of 239. He is at his best in a test match, and I see that being no different against the Proteas.

He and 31-year-old Travis Head provide the Aussie side with a wealth of talent and crucial experience. In such a big match, the latter is vital, and Australia has the clear edge over their opponent in this regard.

Bowling

South Africa’s batters must be poised and prepared for a talented crop of Australian bowlers led by none other than Pat Cummins. The legendary cricket player is back in the final with an eye on another championship.

Cummins is an all-time great in Australian test match history. He has played in 67 matches across 125 innings for the international squad. The 32-year-old native of Westmead holds an impressive 2.90 economy rating while yielding 6,597 runs and a 22.4 average.

Along with Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, and Scott Boland, Australia’s depth bowling is unmatched in this showdown for the test title. At 35, Starc still has it with a career 2.90 economy rating and 22.4 average in 67 test matches since 2011.

Can Pat Cummins or Mitchell Starc overtake Jasprit Bumrah in the World Test Championship final this week? 🇦🇺#WTCFinal #Cricket pic.twitter.com/hSVUYrRNAq

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) June 9, 2025

While I like what Rabada and Jansen bring to the pitch, South Africa lags behind Australia’s offerings at the Lord’s this week.