NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 27: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Evan Mobley +500 (Cavaliers vs. Pistons)

Evan Mobley checks a lot of boxes in tonight’s first basket market when the Cavaliers host the Pistons, and the +500 price tag adds even more appeal.

This is a spot where the opening tip could dictate the outcome, and Cleveland has one of the best in the business at center court. Jarrett Allen’s dominance in jump ball situations gives the Cavs a strong chance at securing the first possession, setting up Mobley with an early opportunity.

Donovan Mitchell spins and finds Evan Mobley inside with the pretty dime 😮

Watch MIL/CLE on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/BvVr2rMNaV pic.twitter.com/0WdvGlmlSt

— NBA (@NBA) October 26, 2025

Mobley has been aggressive to start the season, averaging 19.3 points per game while putting up 15 shots per contest, both numbers signaling increased offensive involvement. Even with some inefficiency from the field, the volume is there. If Cleveland gets that opening touch, there’s a good chance the first look goes Mobley’s way.

At +500, the value is clear. He’s a legit first basket threat against a Pistons team still searching for its defensive identity.

Deni Avdija +700 (Trail Blazers vs. Lakers)

When it comes to first basket bets, possession is everything. That puts Deni Avdija in a strong spot tonight as the Trail Blazers take on the Lakers, especially at +700.

Portland has been automatic on opening tips this season, winning all seven jump balls to start games in 2025. The edge comes from 7’2” rookie Donovan Clingan, who has yet to lose a single tip-off. That gives the Blazers a clear path to the game’s first shot.

Deni Avdija tonight:

▫️23 PTS
▫️7 REB
▫️5 AST
▫️3/7 3PM pic.twitter.com/mlGNb0Xwws

— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) October 27, 2025

If Portland opens with the ball, Avdija offers real value. He’s been one of the go-to options on offense, averaging 23 points per game while shooting 48% from the field. He’s also putting up 18 field goal attempts per game, showing he’s not shy about taking early looks.

At +700, you’re getting a player in rhythm, with volume, and likely possession. That’s the trifecta for a sharp first basket play.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.