NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 29: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Alperen Sengun +500 (Rockets vs. Raptors)

Alperen Sengun is drawing serious value at +500 to score the game’s first basket when the Rockets take on the Raptors. With Houston projected to control the opening tip, Sengun should have the first crack at getting on the board.

Toronto have remained a bottom-tier team in jump balls, carrying over their struggles from last season. They’ve won less than 25% of opening tips this year, most recently getting outjumped by the Cavaliers. That gives Houston an early possession edge, and with Sengun’s hot start, he’s a natural target.

Alperen Sengun beats the 1Q buzzer ‼️

The handles… the jumper… smooth.

Watch on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/yTFtfuEEKM pic.twitter.com/YRbrrHzDag

— NBA (@NBA) October 25, 2025

The Rockets big man is cooking to open the season, averaging 28 points on a high volume diet. He’s also been a primary scoring option alongside Kevin Durant, which bodes well for early touches.

At +500, Sengun is one of the sharper plays on the board to draw first blood.

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Cavaliers vs. Celtics)

Donovan Mitchell is well positioned to strike first in tonight’s clash between the Cavaliers and Celtics. At +500, the value lines up with both form and opportunity.

Cleveland has been dominant in opening tip-offs, with Jarrett Allen consistently giving his team the early edge. Allen won the jump and cashed the first basket in their last outing, but against Boston, expect Mitchell to take the reins early. With 30 points per game on a sharp 51.7% shooting clip, Mitchell is in full scoring rhythm.

Donovan Mitchell flashed some FANCY moves in Motown 😱

35 PTS on 13-18 FGM tonight: pic.twitter.com/KRQIe73UNU

— NBA (@NBA) October 28, 2025

He’s also firing at will, averaging 19.5 shot attempts per night. That level of early aggression makes him a strong candidate to open the scoring, especially if Cleveland secures that first possession as expected.

For first basket bettors, Mitchell checks all the right boxes.

Paolo Banchero +650 (Magic vs. Pistons)

Paolo Banchero stands out as a sharp pick at +650 to net the first points in tonight’s Magic vs. Pistons tilt. The key edge lies in Orlando’s perfect jump ball record, four-for-four to start the season, and the expectation is they’ll take control of the opening tip once again.

Wendell Carter Jr. has been a steady force at the circle, and with Detroit continuing to struggle in that area, the Magic are primed for another early possession. That puts Banchero in a prime spot to strike.

Paolo Banchero tonight:

32 Points
7 Rebounds
5 Assists
3 Blocks
10/18 FGM pic.twitter.com/UIvAPrOsP5

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) October 28, 2025

He’s been the go-to option early and often, averaging 22.8 points on 17.8 shot attempts per game. His assertiveness and rhythm make him a serious threat to draw first blood.

Given the matchup and Orlando’s early-possession track record, Banchero is a strong value to score first at this number.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.