NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 10: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Wendell Carter Jr. +1000 (Celtics vs. Magic)

In Monday’s matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and Orlando Magic, there’s strong first-basket value in backing Wendell Carter Jr. at +1000.

The Magic dominate the opening tip, leading the NBA in jump balls won and converting 90% of those into first-shot opportunities. That early edge sets the stage for Carter Jr., who’s quietly become Orlando’s primary first-look option.

Wendell Carter Jr. with authority 😤

hey @franzboogie nice pass pic.twitter.com/5FK3cYhgiU

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 9, 2025

He’s taken 44.3% of the team’s first shots and has already cashed three first-basket tickets this season, including two recent hits. With a clear role in early possessions and the Magic’s tip-off success backing the play, Carter Jr. shapes up as a sharp +1000 first scorer bet.

Victor Wembanyama +380 (Spurs vs. Bulls)

The Spurs have been a first-basket cheat code this season, and Victor Wembanyama is the key to unlocking it.

San Antonio enters Monday’s matchup against the Bulls having won 88.9% of their tip-offs this season, thanks to Wembanyama’s length and timing. On the flip side, Chicago has been one of the NBA’s worst teams in that department, winning just a third of their jump balls. That early edge gives Wembanyama a prime shot at striking first.

WEMBY. TOMAHAWK. SLAM. 😱

Watch on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/hEtnvycsSi pic.twitter.com/Wd9BN6wo3W

— NBA (@NBA) November 9, 2025

He’s not just winning tips, Wemby is also San Antonio’s top scoring option. Wemby is averaging 24.3 points on 49.7% shooting, and he’s capable of getting on the board in multiple ways. Whether it’s a post touch, a face-up jumper, or a second-chance bucket off the glass, Wemby will be attacking.

With volume, versatility, and a possession advantage all working in his favor, Wembanyama is a sharp play at +380 to open the scoring.

Keyonte George +1000 (Timberwolves vs. Jazz)

In Monday’s matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Utah Jazz, backing Keyonte George at +1000 to open the scoring makes for a compelling first‑basket angle. The Jazz are poised to gain the jump‑ball edge, which sets the stage perfectly for George. They’re tied with the Spurs, winning 88.9% of jump balls.

Keyonte George stepback triple 🤝

He scored 16 in the 3Q and has 26 for the game! pic.twitter.com/qiwgJ74p17

— NBA (@NBA) November 4, 2025

The 22-year-old former Baylor guard brings the scoring chops to match the opportunity, he’s been putting up solid numbers, and with around 15 field‑goal attempts per game, he’s active and engaged in the early offense.

Given the long‑odds payout and his role on Utah’s offense, George shapes up as a strong value bet to get the first points on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.