NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 5: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +500 (Mavericks vs. Thunder)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands out as a sharp pick to net the first basket in Friday’s clash between the Thunder and Mavericks. Oklahoma City has been dominant in jump ball situations, converting 72.7% of tip-offs into possession. That’s a massive edge against a Dallas squad winning just 39.1% of opening jumps. With the first shot likely going to OKC, it’s all about who’s taking it.

Enter SGA. The Thunder’s engine is averaging 32.8 points on an efficient 54.8% shooting clip. He’s putting up nearly 20 shots per game and often looks to assert himself early in the first quarter. That blend of volume, efficiency and aggressiveness makes him an ideal first basket target.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30+ points in 17 of the Thunder's 21 games this season (81%).

The only players in NBA history to score 30+ points in 80% of their team's games in a season are Wilt Chamberlain (4x) and Michael Jordan (1986-87). pic.twitter.com/bkemvMlYXU

— NBA History (@NBAHistory) December 2, 2025

At +500, you’re getting strong value on a player who not only leads his team in scoring but is also set up with a likely first-touch scenario.

Dillon Brooks +600 (Suns vs. Rockets)

Dillon Brooks is an intriguing play at +600 to hit the first basket when the Suns take on the Rockets. The jump ball metrics clearly favor Phoenix, who have secured the opening tip in 63.6% of games this season. Houston lags far behind at just 31.6%, making it likely the Suns start with the ball.

That puts Brooks in a strong position to strike early, especially with Devin Booker out of the lineup. Brooks steps into the lead scoring role and brings volume to back it up, with 22.3 points per game on 46.3% shooting, along with 17.7 field goal attempts per contest.

DILLON BROOKS HIT 10 SHOTS IN A ROW WITHOUT A MISS!

📺 Peacock pic.twitter.com/E2ifAQpbap

— NBA on NBC and Peacock (@NBAonNBC) December 2, 2025

He’s not shy about firing early, and the added usage without Booker puts him firmly in the mix for the game’s opening points. Given the possession edge and his assertive style, Brooks makes for a sharp first scorer target in this matchup.

Zach Edey +700 (Clippers vs. Grizzlies)

Zach Edey at +700 to score the first basket is a sharp play in Friday’s Clippers vs. Grizzlies showdown. With Edey anchoring the center position, Memphis has quietly become one of the better first basket teams in the league. The 7’3” rookie owns the tip circle, giving the Grizzlies an early possession edge, especially against a Clippers squad that wins just 36.4% of jump balls.

But Edey’s value doesn’t stop at the tip. He’s been far more assertive offensively this season, averaging 14.2 points per game on a scorching 67.1% shooting clip. Most of his looks come in the paint where his size and touch make him a near-automatic finisher around the rim.

A DOMINANT SHOWING FROM ZACH EDEY!

😤 32 PTS (career-high)
😤 17 REB
😤 4 BLK

Grizzlies win their 3rd in a row. pic.twitter.com/zIDq9md9yp

— NBA (@NBA) December 1, 2025

Given the jump ball advantage and Edey’s high-efficiency scoring style, +700 is a strong number for him to open the scoring.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.